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 photo slide_211638_735522_free_zps05e69aa1.jpgArtist's impression of 1000 km wide planetoid (about the distance from New York to Chicago) hitting a young Earth. Donald Davis/NASA this is much bigger than the asteroid we are talking about here.

Greeting fellow earthlings. I bring tidings of concern from our nuclear test satellite warning system which will be announced on Tuesday. Benjamin Hart warns us that Far More Asteroids Have Hit The Earth Than We Thought.

Satellite data shows that since 2001, earth has been hit 26 times by asteroids large enough to cause explosions of the same magnitude as those caused by atomic bombs! It has only been by pure chance, aka dumb luck, that none have it a major city reports a former NASA scientist who now works at the B612 foundation which is devoted to preventing a "deep impact" kind of explosion.

On Tuesday, the B612 Foundation, which is devoted to preventing the next deep impact, will present data from a nuclear-weapons test warning satellite showing that far more asteroids have hit earth in the past few years than previously thought, the organization announced on its website. ... The data, collected from a nuclear missile detection system that picks up large blasts on earth, shows that since 2001, asteroids have caused 26 explosions on the scale of an atomic bomb.

“This data shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare, but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought,” Ed Lu, one of the astronauts working on the project, said in a statement. "The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck."

 Last year, we heard news of the large asteroid that exploded in Russia. photo slide_211638_735533_free_zps5f38d7a4.jpg

Umm! Benjamin Hart reports the "silver lineing" is that scientist are thinking about ideas that might "deflect any future space rocks from our planet."

Umm? This sounds like pretty weak tea, as far as silver linings go, at least where I come from. Let me summarize this, "it's just dumb luck any our major cities haven't been vaporized by one of the 26 nuclear bomb sized explosions from asteroid impacts hitting the earth since 2001. And this is going to keep happening, at a rate of about two per year, but don't worry folks.., because scientists are thinking about way of preventing this. And, speaking of good news, notice they report the plural of scientist(s) with an "s" so that means more than 1!

Lu, along with fellow ex-astronauts Tom Jones and Bill Anders, has been attempting to develop a better asteroid early-warning system, the Sentinel Infrared Space Telescope, which they hope will become "the principal means by which nearly all asteroid discoveries will be made." ...

NASA has made efforts to track asteroids, but they haven't been as aggressive as the B612 scientists would like. In 1998, NASA established the Near-Earth Object Program Office to detect potentially hazardous comets and asteroids.

Wow, the news gets better with every paragraph. We have three scientists working on this.

The other great news is that in March, NASA announced a contest for scientists to think up possible algorithms for detecting asteroids. So relax folks. Not only do we have three scientists working on this, but a contest as well. This is like an embarrassment of riches. And, we all know how scientists, and everyone else, likes contests. We could be making some progress on this problem right  now even as we speak. (Snark Alert!)

Why weren't we informed of this before?  I guess this classified data was considered to be on a need to know basis, and the powers that be figured no sense in alarming people about something they can't do anything about.

Does anyone else find it to be curious that now after at least 14 years of keeping this information secret, we are we suddenly being told this now? Has our population reached some kind of benchmark of maturity such that the power that be now think we are mature enough to handle this, while we were not previously?  

Stay tuned!  

PS I just thought of a great idea. Could we ask IAN our network where isolated Kossacks can check in to make sure they are OK, to take up this challenge? We could  have representatives from major cities check in every now and then, so we know we haven't lost any to these nuclear sized explosions. (humor alert. Just in this paragraph.)  

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's been known that at least a ton of space (9+ / 0-)

    objects strike the earth's atmosphere every year and most of it burns up before reaching ground.  It's rumored that NORAD has the capability of monitoring 'our' space debris down to the size of an old silver dollar, or a quarter.  We've got a lot of junk up there, especially with China having blown one of their satellites on purpose (and I'd be willing to bet that was the impetus for the movie 'Gravity', although it used Russia as the one blowing up their satellite).  It surprised the daylights out of me when NORAD publically announced that the Soviet nuclear arsenal made it past the y2k scare.

  •  No worries, govt. has Bruce Willis on speed dial. (7+ / 0-)

    The spice must flow, before it's expiration date.

    by jwinIL14 on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:28:59 PM PDT

  •  Well Sorta But the % Area of Major Cities on Earth (15+ / 0-)

    is something around the % area of several eyelashes compared to a human being. OK maybe the size of an eye to a human body.

    I know, you could shoot your eye out, but still these things are rare enough and far enough in between that scientists didn't believe farmer reports that any rocks ever fell from the sky till into the 1800's. Other than that, we have maybe Sodom, and if you believe in anti-conspiracies, Hiroshima and Nagasaki might've been perfectly natural meteor strikes and not crazy so-called nuclear "bombs." Even so, that's not many strikes in inhabited places.

    There've been a few that have almost set off nuclear war between either the US and USSR, or India / Pakistan, which for a time till we got our sensors and the hot line better tuned, was a whale of a lot more likely way to cause damage than taking out a city directly.

    This one below bounced off the atmosphere over the Tetons in 1972 and I guess bouncers don't count in the estimates.

    There's an office with some guy in it in Cambridge MA I think that tracks near earth objects, and one of the scientician cable channels airs a program periodically which shows the US military person in charge of watching, it was a sergeant or lieutenant as I recall which calibrates the urgency pretty well.

    Now for the bad news.

    They've redone the supercomputer modelling of events like Tunguska and discovered that they'd forgotten to account for the energy of coming in at 20 miles a second, and so it turns out that an object that can wipe out a few hundred square miles is less of an asteroid and closer to a lawn ornament.

    So that means there's a whole fleet of these things that are really dangerous that are too small to see easily, even before factoring in that they're darker than charcoal briquettes.

    Oh and comets, unlike asteroids which we can predict for centuries once we spot them, comets don't come from a belt, they come from the entire sphere, so we probably won't see a comet coming till the last few weeks.

    "SO-o-o-o-o I wouldn't sweat the thunderstorms." --Al Sleet, your Hippy Dippy Weatherman as portrayed by George Carlin.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:30:23 PM PDT

    •  Props to whoever it was (8+ / 0-)

      that was able to get a cellphone video of that, in 1972.

      •  More likely Super 8 film (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nchristine, Garrett

        The first handheld mobile phone was demonstrated in 1973 and wasn't commercially available in the US until 1983.  The first camera phone didn't come out until 2000, with video capabilities following in 2007.  That we take this for granted just 7 short years later is pretty remarkable, even if your comment above was tongue in cheek.

        quis custodiet ipsos custodes -- Juvenal VI, 347-8

        by golem on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 04:11:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  But aren't comets mostly ice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Simplify, HoundDog

      and so would melt or vaporize before impact?

      "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

      by kovie on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:54:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If they're big, very big (6+ / 0-)

        and moving very fast, no. They might explode at some height or make it to the surface.

        •  Yes, I don't know what the count is for those (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          palantir

          that explode in the atmosphere. This articles say "hit the earth," and the second paragraph says "impact."

          On Tuesday, the B612 Foundation, which is devoted to preventing the next deep impact, will present data from a nuclear-weapons test warning satellite showing that far more asteroids have hit earth in the past few years than previously thought, the organization announced on its website. ... The data, collected from a nuclear missile detection system that picks up large blasts on earth, shows that since 2001, asteroids have caused 26 explosions on the scale of an atomic bomb.

          “This data shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare, but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought,” Ed Lu, one of the astronauts working on the project, said in a statement. "The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck."

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 12:07:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Enough Mass and Speed ... (0+ / 0-)

        All you need - to send us back to the stone age.

        “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

        by RUNDOWN on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 03:09:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why has no one noticed these huge explosions? (13+ / 0-)

    Have they all come down in the oceans?  If no one has even seen 26 explosions of this magnitude, I would think that the probability of one hitting a populated area must be pretty low.

    Seems that tsunamis and earthquakes are far greater threats in the larger scheme of things.

    Of course the last thing General John Sedgwick said before dropping dead off his horse at Gettysburg was "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance."

    Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

    by ZedMont on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:34:44 PM PDT

    •  Guess he was a Democrat. (5+ / 0-)

      To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

      by UntimelyRippd on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:48:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  LOL! Took me a while... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, Aunt Pat, Louisiana 1976

        Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

        by ZedMont on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:51:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Me too, I had to read both of your comments twice (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lehman scott, cheminMD, ZedMont

          to even know what you guys were talking about. I this is my main thing.

          It's sort of spooky to think we all may be like this, including many of not most of our readers.

          Sometimes when I read the comments it's  seem highly likely that many of the readers will say thing that make it appear they must have dozed off while reading parts of the article.

          For example, the two quoted paragraphs explicitly say "hit the earth, and impacts," yet just below several of the smartest readers we have on the sight agree that he must have meant "airbursts" even after correctly noting  "oh I thought he said "hit the earth," which in fact are his exact words. Followed by a second paragraph saying "Impact,"

           

          On Tuesday, the B612 Foundation, which is devoted to preventing the next deep impact, will present data from a nuclear-weapons test warning satellite showing that far more asteroids have hit earth in the past few years than previously thought, the organization announced on its website. ... The data, collected from a nuclear missile detection system that picks up large blasts on earth, shows that since 2001, asteroids have caused 26 explosions on the scale of an atomic bomb.

          “This data shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare, but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought,” Ed Lu, one of the astronauts working on the project, said in a statement. "The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck."

          We all seem to do this. While subjectively our perceptions is we are either "conscious' or "unconscious'   as it this is a binary switch like the traditional "on" or "switch," a more careful analysis of the evidence suggests our conscious awareness is more like a "variable dimmer" dial, and we have several operation at the same time, apparently 3-7 depending on one's level of concentration. A brain surgeon at peak performance may use 7, the same fellow reading comments in a "half-and-half" science blog and fun late-night diversion, may only use and the one he or she is paying attention too may or may not be the one he or she is writing about.

          For example, It's now 3:19 am EST, and I woke up to take a pee after going to bed relatively early, at about 11:30 pm.

          I quickly scanned the comments in the four most recent posts I've done in the last half a day, (goodness only knows what's been happening in the 30 or so I've done the last week,) looking for alerts of misspelling,errors, challenges, direct questions, evidence of bickering, or any problems.

          So I've scanned over Zedmont's horse story and UntimelyRippd response maybe five times since 10:30 pm last night when this exchange started but I really never had a specific idea about what you guys were talking about.

          Part of my mind would just note ,"oh, yeah, that horse exchange thingie, sort of putting this in the category, of "innocuous arcane historical tangent by two folks engaging in light conversation of a slightly positive nature," quickly scanning for anything I needed to attend two.

          The humorous meaning didn't get through to me until I was looking for the exchange on the airbursts for the two fellows that just agreed these weren't hitting the ground, after the one fellow said he had thought for a moment, that "he said they hit the ground." The only reason I even cared at 3:30 am when I should be sleeping, is I was concerned for a moment that the indefinite pronoun "he" may have referred to me and there might be some implication or inference of confusion on my part either by themselves or someone else scanning at the same "partially conscious level of awareness as I often do.

          So on what is probably the sixth pass, I noted Zedmont added a LOL, which immediately caught my eye, since I've been seeing this Zedmont name, which is easy to remember pop up more often, and I thought, "oh look, Zedmont  and UntimelRipped, have a sense of humor so I had to update your "reader profiles in my mind,  from the previous "civil war geeks," to "urban fun loving socialites, so I could remember in the future that if was probably okay to engage either of you in light hearted banter without giving you heart palpitations inadvertently.

          Then a double whammy hit me when I saw "elephant - Democrat," hey this is actually funny "late night" comedy gold," quickly updating your reader profiles, and adding "I hate it when this happens," thinking there may be a 50-50 chance you would recognize this as an allusion to the Mick Jagger SNL sketch decades ago.

          If I don't quickly get down to my airbursters I'll be so away I'll start writing another article, and probably not go to sleep until noon, get off cycle, leading to excess Woody Allen kind of anxiety and moodiness humor on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will distress some of my First pager  (not Front-Pager) friends, who encourage me to maintain the veneer of a self-confident, hard hitting, high-brow investigative reporter.

          Cheers fellows. great talking to you. I hope you get that I mean everything here in the "nicest possible friendly way."

          Good night.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 12:40:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That's what I wondered.. What I'm thinking (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ZedMont, Aunt Pat, Louisiana 1976

      is the US government has probably known, and just never figured it was something they wanted to mention.

      They had this satellite data which is monitor constantly.

      Ttey must check every one out to make sure there are not atomic explosions.

       

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:50:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is old news (7+ / 0-)

      It's been widely known that explosions in the kiloton range (low-yield tactical nuclear weapon size) explosions happen about once a month in the atmosphere, but since the vast majority of the Earth has no one on it, it's not witnessed, there's nothing to damage, and even if someone was there to notice, the explosions happen too far up to do real damage.

      Incidentally, Sedgwick wasn't on a horse, he was shot several minutes after he said the quote, and it wasn't at Gettysburg.

      •  Sorry, you're right. Confused Sedgwick with John (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Simplify, HoundDog

        Reynolds, who was shot off his horse at Gettysburg, possibly by a sniper.

        Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

        by ZedMont on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:40:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I thought when he said "earth has been hit" he (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ypochris, HoundDog, lehman scott

        meant the things made it to the surface.  Completely understandable if they were destroyed in the atmosphere.

        Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

        by ZedMont on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:43:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hi its me again. You are correct ZedMont. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lehman scott, ZedMont

          On Tuesday, the B612 Foundation, which is devoted to preventing the next deep impact, will present data from a nuclear-weapons test warning satellite showing that far more asteroids have hit earth in the past few years than previously thought, the organization announced on its website. ... The data, collected from a nuclear missile detection system that picks up large blasts on earth, shows that since 2001, asteroids have caused 26 explosions on the scale of an atomic bomb.

          “This data shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare, but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought,” Ed Lu, one of the astronauts working on the project, said in a statement. "The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck."

          "Vanna, please tell our contestant what prizes they have won for participating in tonight's comments."

          "Well HoundDog, from Equine Supplies we have their new Super Deluxe Saddle Soad, for those having troubles falling off horses, during Civil War re-enactment events....."

          Sorry folks our new AI-Google Autobot context analyzer misfired, and was giving you the wrong "product placement ad."

          I liked the story better when it was Sedwick who got shot of the horse, after saying "they couldn't hit an elephant at this distannce."

          And, I already sent out a note to have our graphics arts department to draw this up as a cartoon for Democratic Party fund raising events with Untimelyripped's clever retort.

          What would it take for all us just to agree this is what happened. Who else would possible every know, if we can just convince Northwatch to keep telling everybody?

          What do say Northwatch?

          How about a Lifetime HoundDog VIP Gold Pass to all my future posts entitling you to "all benefits thereupon proscribed?"  

          Like absolutely no "on-topic limitations, unlimited graphics posting, and even freedom to correct people for slightly inaccurate historical allusions with out any prejudicial implication?

          Pretty good, eh? What do you say, Have we got a deal?
          All you have to do is just agree is not say anything next time Zedmont and Upripped do the Segewick must have been a Democrat skit at one of our fund-raisers, and I try to sell their autographed copies of the cartoon for $5.00 donated to our Party. Cuz I already order 1,000 of these and the graphics department is so fast, there are probably already on a drone about to arrive on my front lawn.

          Cheers.    

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 12:55:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  LOL! Well, Sedgwick WAS standing on the ground, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TheDuckManCometh, HoundDog

            but he was laughing at his men cowering on the ground as they heard the first two shots whistle by.  He didn't hear the third one.  Reportedly, he died with a grin on his face.

            That's the way I want to go.  Stupid and happy.

            I'm halfway there...

            Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

            by ZedMont on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 05:25:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  "I hate it when this happens." (0+ / 0-)

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 12:08:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt they were aiming. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      Of course the last thing General John Sedgwick said before dropping dead off his horse at Gettysburg was "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance"

      Thump! Bang. Whack-boing. It's dub!

      by dadadata on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 03:30:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm going to guess that we're being apprised of (8+ / 0-)

    the danger at this particular juncture because somebody's funding is in peril.

    I find the reported findings to be a bit dubious. I'd like to know a little more about exactly where these things exploded, and why nobody noticed, given that the one that hit Russia was observed over a path of many miles. An explosion on the scale of 20 kilotons of dynamite is going to make a sound that you're going to hear a long, long ways away.

    On the other hand, it ain't that hard to find evidence of major asteroid impacts that happened a gazillion years ago. Go to Google maps and zoom in on Lake of the Woods, Ontario. There are a few fairly obvious impact points blasted into the basalt.

    To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

    by UntimelyRippd on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:46:15 PM PDT

  •  I have a foolproof method for finding asteroids (11+ / 0-)

    that may be threats to the planet.

    Just tell AARP that all of the rocks are over 50 years old. They'll find 'em PDQ. And immediately bombard them with enough membership cards, insurance offers & other junk-mail marketing ploys to knock them off course permanently.

    The greatest trick the GOP ever played was convincing the devil they had a soul to sell.

    by Uncle Cosmo on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 07:55:22 PM PDT

  •  I'm curious. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    Now that you know 'the truth', how will you live your life differently?

    Or are you suggesting that we should actually be engaging in a 'Manhattan Project' type of program to come up with an asteroid shield for the earth?

    I'm not sure if the diary is saying we're not doing enough, that we should have been told earlier, or what the basic point is.

    •  I haven't suggested anything actually. I was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ozy, ZedMont, JeffW

      joking about there being only three people and a contest.

      But, there is a lot of room in between three people and a Manhatten style project.

      I don't see me living my life differently because at 58 I'm statistically for more likely to expire from a wealth of other causes before being vaporized by an asteroid.

      If we've barely noticed but a couple of these in 13 years it seems unlikely that we anytime soon.

      From an individual's point of view even a small child would seem to have low probability of having to worry about this.

      On the other hand, we seem to have enough unique research opportunities here that I don't think allocating enough resources for a dozen or two? This may already be the case because of the huge telescope project, which I haven't read anything about yet.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:30:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Like you I haven't a lot of years left (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog

        My greatest worry has been the certainty climate change will make my kids lives  miserable.

        I tend to rule out the mega disasters, the stuff caused by a Yosemite magma chamber, pole reversals, the Canary Islands Tsunami,  or Aliens building interplanetary expressways.

        That said I do realize Hollywood and supermarket checkout counter news flashes have been gently but persistently preparing us for things hitting East coast cities towers and landmarks as far back as I can recall.            

        Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

        by rktect on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:50:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, this climate change, ALEC, Koch brothers an (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lehman scott, rktect

          what seems like a transition of egalitarian democracy into a hierarchical oligarchy makes me said for my son and future generations.

          When I was a teenager around 1970 or 72 I remember saying that anyone who would have children, knowing what we could already predict about the future would be ethically irresponsible and even immoral.

          Somehow without intending to I intended up getting married and having a wonderful son, after being unwittingly caught up in my ex-wife's hidden agenda.

          He has turned out great, and the last 40 years have turned out much better than I had expected.

          From about the time of the early "duck and cover" drills in kindergarten I never expected to make it past 21 before being incinerated in a nuclear conflageration with the old Soviet Empire or the Chinese.

          So I was overly pessimistic. Even having this data about myself and trying to update my own self-assessment of my latent psychological proclivities, and knowing I suffer from a major depressive disorder I still have the say basic expectation that the next 50 to 100 years will be especially dreadful for he human race measured in "gigadeaths" of perhaps 50% of the worlds population.

          That has been about my "expected value of 50 tot 100 years population survival" ever since I was about 5 to 6 and this expectation has been remarkably consistent my whole life.

          I've also been predicting the Great real estate and stock market crash for about 40 years now, and even though we've just about completely recovered from this 2008 incident, if you asked me to predict the global GDP for the next 100 years, I'd be trying to calculate the impact of a probable collapse of the approximately 60 trillion excessively leveraged global derivatives market.

          Adjusting slightly for the possibility and hope that we could sustain 2% to 4% sustain inflation to trow and devalue our way out of it, but "realistically" expecting the change of doing this with without major "discontinuities" (i.e. read "badness") seems implausible.

          One thing I'm certain of is our world systems have some major invisible source of "stability" that I am unable to fully perceive and factor into to my 'mental mathematical simulations I use for forming expectations of the future.

          And, I say this already have made significant "X" factor adjustments for what appears to be a strong negative personal"bias" on my part.

          Perhaps, it is some kind of latent unconscious neoMalthusian tendencies, that I have to learn to reign in to appear more like a "normal" person not tinged with the background risk of some major clinical depressive disorder, that is probably partially responsible for my nearly continuous pseudo-affectation of a happy-go lucky glib "PlayDog."

          Thanks for commenting rktect. Haven't' seem to have heard from you in a long time. I'm glad to see your still around and well.

          Cheers.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 01:18:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I always enjoy your posts, don't always comment (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            Since my wife got sick there seems to be a lot more work to do just keeping everything in a good state of repair, and I'm doing more reading and less writing.

            I'm coming up on my ten year anniversary here, but with an average of just a little over three comments a day and never seem to have the time to travel to Net-roots, although I have made a couple of local meetups and do some Dem progressive activist political stuff.

            My wife and kids tell me I tend to go through life convinced I can fix anything and am an optimist except when it comes to climate change where I get a bit more intense.

            The chances of nuclear war never bothered me, but  there are now seven billion of us on just this one small planet and thus in many places too many people doing too many things in too small a geographical area. Its a problem that few of us seem to be able to connect the dots that over population, pollution and war clearly do have Malthusian consequences.

            By 2035 temperatures may have risen 2° C and with them sea levels 2 feet. after that it quickly gets exponentially worse and all of those changes are already locked into the system by what we have done  or not done to date.

            By the time a kid born today reaches maturity things will already have fallen apart and civilization as we know it will be history. At the same time hundred year storms, famines, droughts, fires, floods will come every ten years. Government and religion won't be there to cope with it.

            Ninety percent of cities are located at river mouths and thus are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.

            As an architect I know that the lead time to do any major urban planning is now greater than the amount of time we have left before 100 east coast cities with populations over 100,000 begin slipping beneath the waves.

            Getting more tax breaks for the rich and more weapons in the hands of more people, drill baby drill, and building pipelines to profit off the tar sands and fracking that are all that is left of our fossil fuels doesn't solve these problems.

            I know that once infrastructure is under water it becomes really hard to repair.

            Things like nuclear and fossil fuel powered utilities, subways, water and sewer, the bearing capacity of the soils under high rise towers. airports, seaports, roads, bridges, are already hard to repair because of Republican Austerity and their apparent mission to make everyone else on the planet more desperate and less able to survive than they are.

            Things like police and fire stations, hospitals, markets, schools and manufacturing, become hard to keep functioning.

            As food distribution and other services fail the control of hungry people panicking over not having power or lights or gas in gas stations, or anybody coming to fix whats broken leave us with our rich folks private armies and guardians deserting their posts to join in the looting and plundering.

            From there world population crashes until we find ourselves once again hunter gatherers only now with all the species extinctions, the dead oceans and rain forests nothing left to hunt and gather except other humans.

            As temperatures and sea levels continue to rise the organisms that put oxygen in our air and take the carbon dioxide out die off so it gets hard to breath.

            The tropics become uninhabitable and people begin trying to migrate north through the US Canada, Europe and Siberia to the arctic the lack of food, clothing and shelter for billions of climate refugees in the tundra quickly becomes apparent.

            Wealth and power are no guaranty of survival. Private and national armies will be among the first groups to break ranks to look after themselves after food and energy distribution break down. Transportation and weapons will probably be more of a priority than hand tools at first, but eventually how much of our ability to grow our own crops, make our own clothes and shelter remains will make all the difference who lives and who dies.

            Obviously we quickly reach the point where money, diamonds, gold, shares in oil companies are worthless to negotiate with someone armed and hungry that sees you as a food source, or maybe you still have some gas in your car.

            To end on a positive note I'm certain the planet will heal itself once its rid of us and the next species to evolve to our level will find evidence of our brief existence in a thicker than usual layer of carbon in the fossil record.

            Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

            by rktect on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 04:31:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thanks for this thought provoking comment rktect. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              rktect
              To end on a positive note I'm certain the planet will heal itself once its rid of us and the next species to evolve to our level will find evidence of our brief existence in a thicker than usual layer of carbon in the fossil record.
              Thanks for this upbeat and optimistic ending.

              "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

              by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 05:19:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Diaries are supposed to have a point??? NOW you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, HoundDog

      tell me.

      Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

      by ZedMont on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:45:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not the worst idea ever. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ozy, HoundDog
      Or are you suggesting that we should actually be engaging in a 'Manhattan Project' type of program to come up with an asteroid shield for the earth?
      Given the indisputable reality that an asteroid of sufficient size would pose a danger to the survival of the human species, and given that we now have the capacity to potentially detect and possibly interdict such asteroids, it would make sense to spend some of our resources on a program that could protect us from catastrophe.

      Such a program could also have other benefits, too—increasing the amount of funding for space science generally, bringing humanity together on a project that could potentially save all of us, and developing new technologies that could be shifted from interdicting asteroids to mining them for resources.

      "When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist." --Dom Helder Camara, archbishop of Recife

      by JamesGG on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 05:38:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There are certainly worse ways to spend money. n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog
      •  I had an idea for a Sci Fi story where using Mao (0+ / 0-)

        Tse Tung's idea of people uniting when confronted by a common enemy, a secret group send a satellite around Pluto to broadcast signals that warn earth that an alien invasion is on its way with advanced technology.

        A minority group of dissident aliens is giving us a 50 year warning so earth has time to prepare a response.

        So the book runs through a process of establish a world federation of nation that ally to fight the oncoming enemies and we rush to establish perimeter defenses in space stations and the asteroid belt.

        By the time the fraud becomes discovered we've solved all the problems like global warming, over population, regional wars. We move all of our nuclear warheads out to the asteroid belt with missals  aimed outward.

         The CIA fraudsters are put on trail as old men, (lifetimes have been extended because of great breakthroughs in medicine). The end up being given an award instead.

        I figured I had it made then someone told me this was already the theme of some comic book back in 1959.  

        "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

        by HoundDog on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 05:27:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  John McCain has already demanded we supply arms (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ZedMont, Simplify, Egalitare, RUNDOWN, HoundDog

    To non-Earth threatening asteroids, because they're clearly the 'good guys'.

    Rand Rick Ted Huck Scott / Republican power ON! / Five watt light bulb glows - haiku by Bill IPM

    by Fordmandalay on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:24:41 PM PDT

  •  Great Chicago Fire May Have Been Meteors (9+ / 0-)

    The same day, there were fires across a large swath of the midwest that killed hundreds and a good sized town was vaporized by a firestorm that killed hundreds.  but given the state of communications at the time, nobody connected the dots.

    Men are so necessarily mad, that not to be mad would amount to another form of madness. -Pascal

    by bernardpliers on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:31:02 PM PDT

  •  I'm not sure why we'd worry so much (5+ / 0-)

    about asteroids when we're doing such a good job of killing ourselves off with global warming/climate change.

    "The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

    by Lily O Lady on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:47:46 PM PDT

  •  The percentage of the world's surface (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    including water that cities occupy is miniscule compared to all the uninhabited or sparsely inhabited parts. So statistically, I'm be more worried about being hit by an asteroid if I was a cow than a human. Or, a moooon. Get it?

    "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

    by kovie on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 08:53:06 PM PDT

  •  Something smells like dead fish (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    Ok, this has the skeptic in me wondering. Just what is an asteroid? And did the definition get changed to up the number? And 26 atomic bomb sized ones have hit since 2001. So what. That does not mean a lot. In several tests of an areal device for anti aircraft/ballistic missile defense a device was set of in the atmosphere with people standing directly below it. I knew one of them. ( maybe that is why he and his kid was so weird but that is a different matter, ) and there are videos of them. To say they are the size of an atomic bomb is pretty meaningless. What size bomb? Also most of the energy is dissipated very high in the atmosphere compared to an atomic bomb, also over a greater amount of time and is spread out somewhat. And there are different kinds of incoming objects. Ones made of soft snow ball kind, stony ones, and iron/nickle one. Most explode in the upper atmosphere and rain down little pebbles, yeah sucks if one hits you. I feel some one is using scare tactics for some funding. Just to many holes in their "The Sky Is Falling" sales pitch.  

  •  I Was About To Make a Comme (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    I guess I shouldn't joke about that. But 2 per year? Surely someone's noticed!

    What if one of these things hit North Korea?

  •  Is B612 Foundation anything like... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    B613?

    (Don't tell me I'm the only one who thought that!)

    No, you can't fix stupid. You OUTNUMBER stupid. -Wildthumb, 1/10/2013

    by newinfluence on Sun Apr 20, 2014 at 11:45:59 PM PDT

  •  cities cover 3% of the Earth's surface (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    more than I (and many) thought (and of course "major cities" is a smaller number), but to me that makes it more than "dumb luck".

    Of course, if it's 2 hits per year, and most of those are atmospheric-only hits (wouldn't we be able to point to a lot more bomb-sized craters if "atomic bomb" sized impacts were hitting the earth's surface), then there's low odds of a hit actually affecting a major city for some time.

    Raines

  •  asteroid impact effects calculator (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    technically Earth Impact Effects Program
    you get to control your distance from impact, size and composition of the impactor, velocity and angle of attack, and whether it hits water or rock.

    it calculates energy released, crater dimensions, size of fireball and thermal radiation, earthquakes, ejecta and air blast.

    great fun

    i haven't tried the new version, Impact Earth, but apparently you can choose the place of impact.

    " 'In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant.' Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. You may quote me." Elwood P. Dowd

    by paulbkk on Mon Apr 21, 2014 at 09:05:38 AM PDT

  •  Dumb luck. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    Um, it's not luck, except for the lack of incredibly bad luck.

    Cities are only a tiny fraction of the Earth' surface.

    26 impacts missing the cities are like a brick falling off a building and not hitting any pedestrian. Indeed, there are cityscapes out there where pedestrians are remarkably denser on the street than cities are on the Earh..

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