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We are back in business with lots of new numbers, including a new estimate for signups in the extension periods. The big question of the day is where the heck is the March HHS report, including the extensions up to April 15?

After a false start on Saturday marked by a cold sweat, brainwrap is back on restricted duty. What a nice birthday present for me. (Also Emperor Hirohito, boo, hiss; Duke Ellington, yay; and passage of the People's Budget, the first budget in British history with the expressed intent of redistributing wealth among the British public, yay.) It will take a few days to work through the backlog at this rate.

The other continuing news is the Republican retreat from repeal to replace and beyond, as the signups numbers advance, and so does ACA support in the polls. Even in Republican districts.

Estimated Exchange QHPs as of April 30, 2014: 8.14M

Estimated Total, all sources: (14.4 M - 23.6 M)

Individual QHP Range: (7.57M - 13.14M)  •  Medicaid/CHIP (5.22M - 7.26M)

ESIs (111K confirmed; up to 8.2M more possible)  •  Sub26ers (1.60M - 3.10M)

Update: Guest post on "Deadline Creep".

Update x1:

Guest Post: What Is All This "Deadline Creep" Really Telling Us?

Democrats, Republicans, and insurance companies all wanted Open Enrollment extended, for quite different reasons, even though in mature insurance markets enrollment periods come with cutoff dates so that people do not sign up only when they get sick. It might run from Nov. 15 to April 15 next year, not just to Feb. 15. Nevada has perpetual Open Enrollment.

Definitely worth reading and savoring in full.

Update x0: Idaho hits 76K QHPs, breaks own target by 90%!

Add one more group to the "extended extension" period list...

Those in the ACA's temporary "High-Risk Pool", who were originally supposed to have enrolled by the end of 2013, then the end of April; they've now been given until the end of June to do so:
Anti-ACA outfit has a real "gotcha!" moment!! (Um...not really)

Because Huh?

Less than 140K request ACA Mandate Exemption. Nationally.

New Mexico: Final QHP tally 35K, up 32% since 3/31

Oregon: Paid QHPs up to 66K, Medicaid up to 172.4K

Minnesota breaks 50K QHPs, 150K Medicaid as of 4/22

Pull the sheet over Cover Oregon; it's done.

Oregon is expected to switch to the Federal exchange. The current mostly paper system will continue in use until then.

My back-of-the-envelope 4/30 exchange QHP total projection: 8.14M

I expect AT LEAST 7.5 million to have paid their premiums by late May.
And we have previously established that most who don't pay either find a better plan, or have a change in circumstances, such as getting a job with coverage, going on Medicaid, or having more or fewer people in the family.

Where the heck is the March HHS Report???

The answer is: I have no idea.
Michigan: ACA Medicaid expansion up to 140K in first 3 weeks!

Washington State: Final Totals: 164K QHPs, 423.2K Medicaid

Hawaii: A few hundred more QHPs...and a surprising doubling of SHOP enrollees

Idaho: About 5K Woodworkers (close to my 5,600 estimate)

Pennsylvania: Woodworker number defined as around 18K (up from my 13K estimate)

Nevada inches up a few hundred QHPs more to 45.3K

Arkansas: 44.7K QHPs thru 4/21

This AR update is noteworthy for being the first enrollment update I've received which actually includes a reference to...myself!
The original target for Arkansas enrollment from the Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) in September 2013 was 51,000 — Arkansas is currently at 87.5 percent of that target. However, enrollment guru Charles Gaba found that an appropriate projection for Arkansas would be 62,000.
One must ask whether that shortfall is due to the well-known Red State Effect. In contrast with, say, California.

Various & Sundry: Insurance co's thrilled, but also at fault for plenty of "late" payments

This LA Times story from 4/21 is chock full of good news:

First, apparently the ACA is such a "socialist, anti-capitalist" enemy of the free market that the private, for-profit insurance companies are just fleeing for the hills. Oh wait, actually...
Peter Lee, executive director of Covered California, said all 11 current health plans have indicated they plan to return next year. He also said three new plans have submitted letters of intent indicating they may compete on the exchange in 2015.
As to the "late" payments:
The immediate task ahead for health insurers is getting bills and identification cards out to thousands of new customers. Anthem, Blue Shield and other insurers were overwhelmed by a crush of sign-ups in late December among people wanting coverage that started Jan. 1.
My son, Certifiable Genius, among them. Of course, it happened again during the Obamacare Surge at the end of March. Can you remember when we didn't know whether we would reach 6 million? It seems so long ago now. But then it was 7 million known at the end of March, and then all of a sudden the insurers had to cope with another whole million on top of that.

And the Republicans, too, LOL. If you haven't lately, check out the Obamacare Saves Lives group feed for lives (and treasure and sanity) saved so far and in prospect, and Republican political careers about to be destroyed. They have had to abandon repeal, and now even replace. The word of the day is "reform".

Top House Republican utters the 'R' word about Obamacare, and it's not 'repeal' nor is it 'replace'

Republicans flail as they lose their ONE BIG ISSUE for November

by kos

We've talked a great deal about the law's improving numbers, and yet another poll confirms the trend, this one by Democracy Corps, which clocks in at 50-43 in favor of the Democratic position on health care (support current law and improve) in Republican House districts.

Republicans bet early on opposition to the ACA, and that bet is already looking like a terrible idea. You can almost feel the mojo bleed out of Republicans, their confidence shattered, flailing for an answer to the nation's changing public opinion.

Originally posted to Mokurai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 08:20 AM PDT.

Also republished by Obamacare Saves Lives.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I have to admit that (4+ / 0-)

    I'm very surprised that the ACA has come this far in terms of enrollment.  Even the most pessimistic spin on the data has it meeting it's enrollment goals which considering the various exchanges problems early on, is absolutely astounding.

    In spite of roadblocks thrown up against it, it's only going to take a few more good news cycles before the issue moves from defending the bill to expanding it because of it's success.

    •  Medicaid expansion is already the biggest issue (7+ / 0-)

      in the midterms.

      The discussion around Single Payer in Vermont has been going on for years.

      Changes for the second Open Enrollment period are happening in various states, particularly the ones with the most broken state exchanges, such as Oregon, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

      The next big issue is going to be too-narrow insurance provider networks.

      Insurance companies can no longer refuse coverage or terminate coverage, but they can refuse to tell you whether some treatment is covered beforehand, and then refuse to pay for it afterwards. They can still refuse payment for extended emergency treatment, for example in a hospital burn unit, after the fact, and claim that someone with burns over half of his body should have been treated as an outpatient.

      Of course you are right that the media take no notice. Only MSNBC has even covered Democrats running on Obamacare, in some cases by name, and particularly on Medicaid expansion.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 08:55:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So right about the next big issue with ACA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Brainwrap

        narrow networks are an issue. Hearing it from disappointed friends and from other sources. NYS just announced that basically they will do nothing to expand networks because it may hurt some insurers in the exchanges.

  •  I Am Betting The Final Numbers Will Be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JamieG from Md

    10 million or more the same number I predicted two years ago.  My husband remembers I said this.  LOL.  

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 08:59:28 AM PDT

    •  There will be no final number (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap

      enrollments continue for those with Qualifying Events that require a change of coverage, for Medicaid and CHIP, and for SHOP, which will expand greatly when its official opening date rolls around.

      We think that more than 30 million are covered under one or another part of the ACA, but we do not know how many of those were uninsured. The rate of uninsured has fallen from 18.0% before Open Enrollment to 12.9% or better this month. We know that everybody who has insurance or Medicaid or CHIP in any form has many more rights now that before the ACA, and the uninsured cannot be turned down, so everybody is better off except those in the Medicaid gap in the Red states, something like 4.8 million.

      I predict 45 million out of the 47 million we think were uninsured before we started, but I am not going to give a date for that prediction.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 11:44:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  as for Hirohito (0+ / 0-)

    a little backstory. While radicals in the armed forces (the Koda Ha faction) believed the Emperor was a divinity (and official policy in the 30s considered him one) in reality, Hirohito was bound by tradition and in practice wielded little power. his father had been so ineffective that those around the emperor gathered the real power, in fact the Emperor did not even speak at official meetings, it was the advisors like the Marquis Kido, who really ran the show.  Could he have stopped Japans attack on Pearl Harbor? Possibly, if all channels of communication had remained open up until the attack. Defying the Emperors order was considered sacrilege by the people. But given the Navy and Army's thirst for war, and the fact by the late 30s it became impossible to form a civilian government without the army having a great deal of power, it would have been very difficult for anyone to stop the headlong rush to war, even the Emperor, had he wished to do so.

    •  Also on this date, on my actual date of birth (0+ / 0-)

      1946 – The International Military Tribunal for the Far East convenes and indicts former Prime Minister of Japan Hideki Tojo and 28 former Japanese leaders for war crimes.

      I wonder how many we would have come up with if Obama hadn't chickened out. Well, let's not threadjack ourselves. Anybody who would like that for a Diary topic is welcome.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 10:51:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i don't remember now the doodad symbol (0+ / 0-)

    for death ... some kind of skull-n-bones thing ...

    was reminded by your update "x0" ...

    i do, however, remember " w 0 0 t "

    from long ago and far away, when someone here had that expression, and was blue boobie-photo proficient ...

    and that's as far as i got before it was my naptime, so i'll be back to read more. for now ? * TEAM ! *

    TRAILHEAD of accountability for Bush-2 Crimes? -- Addington's Perpwalk.

    by greenbird on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 10:52:45 AM PDT

    •  Unicode U+2620 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greenbird

      Yes, I have said W00t! to some ACA numbers.

      You mean…?

      Blue-footed boobie comparison, male and female

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 12:02:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well. (0+ / 0-)

        boo-coo blue w00ts and "pirates" (now pronounced like 'pilates') -- my lucky day-midnight.

        the w00ter of old had no special reason to w00t that i recall, but i could be wrong, so was you w00t, too ?

        whenever there was a w00t, the w00t was linked to some such pic as yours, which is pretty good. one i do remember seemed to grab the Rogers-Astaire ecstacy romp. ;)

        TRAILHEAD of accountability for Bush-2 Crimes? -- Addington's Perpwalk.

        by greenbird on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 10:43:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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