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8:16 AM PT: KY-Gov: On Tuesday, Attorney General Jack Conway, who'd long been interested in running for governor, became the first Democrat to formally launch a bid for the seat, which will be open next year because incumbent Gov. Steve Beshear is term-limited. (He has a welcome video here.) Conway, who tapped state Rep. Sannie Overly as his running mate, handily won re-election as attorney general in 2011 but badly lost a bid for Senate the previous year to Rand Paul.
Running for state office once again will offer more comfortable turf, but Conway will almost certainly face both a competitive Democratic primary and, should he earn his party's nomination, a hard-fought general election. Other potential heavyweight Democrats include state Auditor Adam Edelen, former Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, and state House Speaker Greg Stumbo. On the GOP side, former Louisville Metro Councilman Hal Heiner is already in the race, while others, such as Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, are still considering.
8:36 AM PT: NY-11: GOP Rep. Mike Grimm has always been delusional, considering that he views every law enforcement investigation of his shady activities as part of a grand partisan conspiracy to annihilate him. So it's not surprising that he told Geraldo (heh) that he thinks he's "one of the luckiest members of Congress," despite that 20-count indictment for tax evasion hanging over his head.
But Grimm did offer one revealing remark. When asked about his internal polling, Grimm evaded, saying: "Listen, I'm going to fight these charges all the way and I'm going to win my election. This is not the first time I've had a lot on my plate." Evidently he's not delusional enough to pretend like his numbers look good.
10:02 AM PT: ME-Gov: A new poll from Critical Insights finds Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud edging GOP Gov. Paul LePage 37-36, with independent Eliot Cutler at 18. That represents a jump for both major-party candidates since September, when Michaud led 33-30, and a decline for Cutler, who stood at 24 percent at the time.
10:14 AM PT: CA-07: A new DCCC robopoll finds Democratic Rep. Ami Bera taking 47 percent in next month's top-two primary, while his three GOP opponents combine for 46. As we noted recently when one of those Republican hopefuls, ex-Rep. Doug Ose, released an internal, that's very good news for Bera, who saw his vote share rise 11 points between June and November in 2012.
But the main thrust of the DCCC's memo is the primary, where Ose leads former congressional staffer Igor Birman by just a 22-17 margin, with activist Elizabeth Emken at 7. That's a lot tighter than the 24-8 edge Ose found for himself last month, and indeed, the D-Trip talks up Birman's chances, saying he only has 50 percent name recognition, versus three quarters for Ose, and that Birman's more popular with voters who know him compared to Ose (though exact numbers aren't provided).
Bera would undoubtedly prefer to face the ultra-conservative Birman instead of Ose, who has a more moderate reputation, so you can almost view this as the DCCC conducting an internal on behalf of Birman, in order to prop him up. But the fact that Democrats have had to do so isn't a positive sign for Birman, who trailed Ose six-to-one in cash-on-hand at the end of the first quarter. Tea-flavored enthusiasm may yet power Birman to victory, but he still trails Ose regardless and would have to stage a come-from-behind upset in order to win.
10:56 AM PT: GA-01: Well, okay then. This is physician Bob Johnson, one of the Republican hopefuls running for Georgia's 1st Congressional District, at a candidate forum in February:
"Now this is going to sound outrageous, I'd rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen," he said, according to a video clip obtained by POLITICO. "Give me liberty or give me death. Isn't that what Patrick Henry said at the founding of our republic?"
He criticized the TSA for "indoctrinating generations of Americans to walk through a line and be prodded and probed by uniform personnel, agents of the government, like sheep."
Politico claims that Johnson apologized in a statement after these remarks came to light, but that doesn't appear to be the case. According to the excerpts provided by the Politico, all he offered was "I said something stupid and should have chosen my words more carefully."
11:01 AM PT: CO-Gov: Colorado's Democratic governor, John Hickenlooper, widely outraised all of his GOP rivals in the first quarter of the year, and indeed, he actually took in more money than all four of his opponents combined. Hick raised $963,000, with his nearest opponent, ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, pulling in just $279,000. Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez raised $224,000, Secretary of State Scott Gessler $121,000, and state Sen. Mike Kopp $106,000. As you'd expect, Tancredo has a wide cash lead, too: $1.65 million, versus just $319,000 for all the Republicans put together. (Beauprez leads with just $118,000.)
11:20 AM PT: CA-21: Democrat Amanda Renteria, who was just the subject of a big New York Times profile this week, has released her first TV ads of the race. One is in English and one is in Spanish, but both are biographical spots featuring the candidate and her parents, with an emphasis on Renteria's ties to the district.
In the English spot, Renteria, a former congressional staffer, says she "came home to teach and coach at my old high school" and pledges her priorities will be "more water, more jobs, and great schools." (This is a heavily agricultural district.) The messaging is a little more pointed in the Spanish-language ad, with Renteria's dad saying, "We worked in the fields so our daughters could have a better life." Renteria has to get by fellow Democrat John Hernandez in next month's primary before she can take on GOP Rep. David Valadao, so she's looking to up her profile and avoid any problems with the otherwise pitiful Hernandez's residual name recognition.
11:53 AM PT: MN-Sen: In Democratic Sen. Al Franken's first ad of his re-election campaign, the owner of a tool company praises him for "working to connect community colleges with manufacturers, to help businesses fill the high-skill jobs that are open right now."
11:58 AM PT: Meanwhile, in a slightly creepy spot, Republican businessman Mike McFadden goes the whole "have your kids tell everyone how cheap you are route." Here, though, McFadden goes a lot further than usual, with his son Conor recounting a time his father insisted on removing stitches Conor had received in a hockey injury himself, rather than letting a nurse do it for $100. (If he's so cheap, why are his kids playing hockey and not basketball?) And because he skimps on his children's medical care, McFadden says he's the perfect guy to take on Obamacare. Yipes.
12:25 PM PT (Darth Jeff): CA-25: Democratic candidate and podiatrist Lee Rogers has his second ad out. The narrator hits both his prospective Republican opponents, state Sen. Steve Knight and former state Sen. Tony Strickland, as typical politicians and too conservative for the district. The ad spends more time attacking Strickland, who looks like a better bet to advance to the general, than Knight.
12:36 PM PT (Darth Jeff): CA-33: Democrat and former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel has a new ad up in the very crowded race to replace Henry Waxman. Greuel briefly introduces her husband and son and quickly pivots to, "I want to fight for your family in Congress." She then lays out her support for a number of progressive policies. It's not a bad ad but feels a little disjointed, almost like Greuel is trying to cram too many positive ideas into one 30 second ad.
12:37 PM PT (David Jarman): PA-13: An apparently brand-new PAC, Building a Better PA, is running an ad in the Philadelphia market boosting state Rep. Brendan Boyle in the Dem primary in the 13th. The ad touts Boyle's working-class bona fides, but also touts his support for Planned Parenthood, seemingly a rebuttal of the Daylin Leach ad last week that hit Boyle on reproductive health issues.
12:42 PM PT (David Jarman): KY-Sen: With the GOP primary looking more and more like a mere speed bump, Mitch McConnell looks like he's already pivoting toward the general election, with a positive spot that focuses on all the Kentucky jobs he's saved (or else he's running damage control after his comments last month that it "not his job" to help one county with its employment problems). It's a $100,000 buy running statewide.
12:48 PM PT (David Jarman): FL-Gov: The Republican Party of Florida is out with an odd ad that seems to be an attempt to ratfuck the primary (or maybe just get Dems to throw up their hands and stay home) by reminding voters of Charlie Crist's Republican past, more specifically, of how he encouraged Bill Clinton to resign in the wake of the Lewinsky affair, against the backdrop of the 1998 Senate race (which he lost badly to Bob Graham). I'm not sure how many voters with a pulse are still unaware of Crist's Republican past at this point, though.
Meanwhile, the Rick Scott campaign is out with its 2nd Spanish-language TV ad, which a translated version of an English-language ad that hit Crist for the bad economy during his administration. It's backed with a $500k buy in four markets.
12:49 PM PT (Darth Jeff): MD-Gov: Attorney General Doug Gansler has a pair of new ads out as the June 24 Democratic primary approaches. In the first spot, Gansler talks up his actions to fight pollution and pledges to do more as governor. His second ad focuses on education, with Gansler promising emphasize "skill over seniority" when it comes to teachers. If you look closely at the end of the education ad, one of the kids is wearing a shirt that says, “Homework? Ain’t nobody got time for that.” It's unclear whether that would also be a part of Gansler's education initiative.
12:55 PM PT (Darth Jeff): MT-AL: Former state Senate Minority Leader Corey Stapleton is going on the air as the crowded June 3 Republican primary quickly approaches. The ad features Stapleton's wife Terry praising him for his military service and conservative values. The campaign is spending about $80,000 to run the ad for two weeks.
12:56 PM PT (David Jarman): NE-Sen: Two different hard-right third-party groups are out with ads in the fast-approaching Nebraska Senate Republican primary. One is from the Senate Conservatives Fund, which is a very generic-sounding positive ad for Ben Sasse, touting his anti-Obamacare outsider cred.
The other is from the Madison Project and it's a radio ad, which we usually don't mention, but this is an unusual red flag: it's the first ad that's paid attention to Sid Dinsdale, a banker who just self-funded nearly $1 million for the stretch run. It hits him as a "liberal Republican" and "counterfeit conservative;" it certainly suggests that the frontrunners (Sasse and Shane Osborn) have beaten each other to a pulp to the extent that they're worried about a repeat of the 2012 primary, where previously-unheralded third-wheel Deb Fischer sprinted across the scorched earth and over the finish line in the last weeks.
1:01 PM PT (David Jarman): NY-22: Republican Rep. Richard Hanna faces a primary from the right in his swingy upstate district from state Asm. Claudia Tenney; while there hasn't been much indication yet that he's in real danger, he doesn't face a Democratic opponent in November, so he might as well spend his money now. He's out with a TV ad that's oriented toward protecting his right flank, decrying the ACA and "bigger government" in general.
1:05 PM PT (Darth Jeff): President-by-LD: Stephen Wolf has been creating several awesome interactive maps visualizing the 2012 presidential results by state legislative chamber. Now, all 58 maps, representing 27 states, have been complied in one place. You'll definitely want to bookmark this: We'll be adding new maps as new states are released.
1:16 PM PT (David Jarman): NE-Sen: Make that three ads. Another PAC, the Freedom Pioneers Action Network (which seems to be a mad lib made up of pieces of the names of other existing PACs), is running a 15-second anti-Sasse ad, that hits him for having previously called Obamacare "an important first step."
1:28 PM PT (David Jarman): IA-Sen: Yet another previously-unknown Super PAC is making its debut today: American Heartland, and the only thing we know so far about them is that they don't care much for Mark Jacobs. They're out with a new ad that hits Jacobs, who's running in the GOP primary, for cap-and-trade and for long-ago donations to Jon Corzine and Arlen Specter (post-party switch)
American Heartland also commissioned a poll through GOP pollster Harper Polling, which shows Jacobs trailing Joni Ernst, who's had some attention-grabbing ads lately, in the primary. Ernst is at 33 (just short of the 35 necessary to avoid a nominating convention), Jacobs is at 23, and Sam Clovis is at 14.
1:43 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: Over the weekend, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel released a long-form article about political polarization in the Milwaukee metropolitan area and how that contrasts with other metro areas (short answer: it's even higher than usual in Milwaukee). The lessons of the story -- growing polarization between the cities and the exurbs -- may not surprise any Daily Kos Elections faithful readers, especially one who are enthusiastic DRA tinkerers. But the article sets an impressively high bar for infographics, with a great array of precinct-level maps that put the current segregation in stark relief, along with charts showing the polarization growing over time.
1:55 PM PT (Darth Jeff): OR-Sen: With Oregon's May 20 primary looming, the Taxpayer Association of Oregon PAC has a new poll of the Republican contest to take on Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley. The survey, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, gives physician Monica Wehby a 43-22 lead over state Rep. Jason Conger. The only other publicly released poll shows things far closer. We'll know soon enough if Wehby has taken a lead or if we'll have another survey to add to Wenzel's long list of misses.