Results & Poll Closing Times (all times Eastern):
8:58 PM PT (David Jarman): MO ballot: I'll be dead in the cold cold ground before I recognize Missourah, but there is one barnburner race going on there: Amendment 1, the "guaranteed right to farm." Sounds uncontroversial, but passing it would make environmental regulations and other oversight of agriculture more difficult. It's currently passing, but only 51-49, with 95% reporting (though with a 15,000 vote margin).
9:06 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-St. Sen.: So while Dems are on track to pick up the former Rodney Tom seat, things aren't looking very good to get that second pickup they need to take control. Their best pickup opportunity, SD-28, sees Dem Tami Green trailing appointed GOPer Steve O'Ban 56-44, and they're on track to lose the open seat in SD-30, where ex-Dem state Rep. Mark Miloscia, now running as a GOPer in this light blue district, is flattening Dem Shari Song 57-43.
The Dems' best pickup opportunity may actually be SD-45, where well-regarded moderate GOPer Andy Hill is beating Matt Isenhower only 54-46 in SD-45 (this is a bluer district than the others, which makes a big difference). The most notable state House race may be central Seattle's SD-43 (a 90% Obama district), where a challenge to the liberal-but-not-liberal-enough state House speaker, Frank Chopp, from socialist Jessica Spear (a mini-me to Kshama Sawant, who made headlines by winning a city council seat last year), is tanking: Chopp leads 81-19.
9:08 PM PT (David Jarman): MI-08 (D): We finally have an AP call in the Dem primary in the 8th for Eric Schertzing. He'll face Mike Bishop in this light-red open seat in November. That leaves MI-14's Dem primary as the only non-Washington House race that weren't waiting on, and the 14th will probably take days to resolve.
9:14 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-04: The AP has shot ahead of the SoS in the 4th, and things are much closer (presumably more Yakima County votes showed up). Clint Didier leads Dan Newhouse only 30-27, with Estakio Beltran and Janea Holmquist both at 11. Things are looking pretty locked in for Didier and Newhouse to advance, though ... in which case I'd conjecture that Newhouse has a significant advantage, since the Democratic votes (and probably the Holmquist and Cicotte votes too) will gravitate more in the direction of the much more establishment-flavored Newhouse. (Newhouse was a GOP state Rep., but was also the state Director of Agriculture, an appointed position, in Chris Gregoire's administration.)
9:15 PM PT (David Jarman): By the way, if these results hold, this'll be the first time Washington's Top 2 has yielded an all-R or all-D race in a federal election. (That has certainly happened in legislative races, and of course has already happened in House races in California, most notoriously in CA-31.)
9:22 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-04: Well, that's the ballgame, folks: the AP has called the top 2 slots in the 4th. Clint Didier and Dan Newhouse advance to the top 2, so it'll be an all-R affair.
9:30 PM PT (David Jarman): We're just left with two races that don't look like they'll be resolved tonight: the Missouri "right to farm" amendment (though it doesn't look like there are enough St. Louis votes left to stop that from passing), and the MI-14 Democratic primary, where we might see a recount, given the narrow gap between Brenda Lawrence and Rudy Hobbs. With that, we're going to call it a night at Daily Kos Elections; thanks, as always, for joining us!
9:36 PM PT (David Jarman): MI-14 (D): Whoa, it's the electoral equivalent of a three-point buzzer-beater from half court! Whatever last precinct was gumming up the works in the 14th showed up in the last few minutes, and it went huge for Rudy Hobbs. It pushed Hobbs ahead of Brenda Lawrence, taking him from a 109-vote deficit to a 240-seat lead. (That's 100% reporting now, with all 386 precincts in, though still no AP call.) It's not a done deal, though; expect to see some sort of recount, given the margin, and given that the primary is the whole ballgame in this dark-blue seat.
10:00 PM PT (Taniel): MO ballot: As expected, the "right to farm" amendment's lead shrank rapidly as St. Louis came in. But it wasn't quite enough: With all precincts now reporting, the Yes is ahead by 2,528 votes out of nearly one million cast (a margin of 0.25%). Still no AP call at this moment.
10:50 PM PT: MI-14: The AP now has Lawrence up 36-32, with Clarke not far back at 31. Wayne County seems to have added a ton of ballots, with Lawrence now leading in the county 32-27. Lawrence's overall lead is almost 2,500 votes, very different from what we've been seeing all night.
The AP hasn't made any calls yet. If Lawrence's lead is clearly this high we should be seeing a concession from Hobbs Wednesday or so. If there are more shoes left to drop we should know much more Wednesday or so. Either way, we probably won't have the full story for a little while.