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Here's an interesting FOX News poll.  It holds some good news and some bad news.  First some good news:

                         Democratic      Republican
10-12 Aug 14             46                39

26-28 Oct 10             39                46

Now for some bad news.  Those numbers are for Registered voters.  Now the numbers for the "interested" voters.
                         Democratic      Republican
10-12 Aug 14             44                45
As you can see, we've got that lack of interest thing going again.  OTH it's still August and a lot of people are just starting to tune in.  If we can get our people interested, we're going to win a lot of those razor thin Senate races.

Some more good news, the Republicans are near their low point of support for the last year, including the government shutdown, while the Dems are near their high point.  When the President starts issuing executive orders, the screams from the Tea Party for impeachment or moving forward on lawsuits is going to benefit the Dems.

Some other numbers in the poll:

Democrat favorability ratings:

                                                                                   College    No
                Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men Women White Black  Degree   Degree

Favorable     47%   87%   13%  30% 42%   51%    40%  84%    47%     47%
Unfavorable  45%   9%     82%  52% 53%   39%    52%  10%    48%     44%

                                                                                                             Tea
                   Total     Age<35   35-54    55+    65+    $50k   $50k+    Lib  Cons Party
Favorable       47%       51%       42%    48%    54%    55%    42%     72% 33%  13%
Unfavorable    45%       39%       51%    45%    38%    36%    53%     22% 62%   80%

And For Republicans:
                                                                                   College    No
                Total   Dem   Rep   Ind   Men Women White Black  Degree   Degree

Favorable     42%   14%   79%  30%  45%  39%    48%  10%    43%     41%
Unfavorable  50%    80%   16% 52%  48%  52%    45%   79%   51%     50%

                                                                                                            Tea
                   Total     Age<35   35-54    55+    65+    $50k   $50k+    Lib  Cons Party
Favorable       42%        41%      43%     41%   39%    35%    47%     22% 56%  60%
Unfavorable    50%        49%      50%     51%   51%     54%   48%     71% 39%  34%

Now there's some strange things in this last batch of numbers.  It looks like the 65+ age group is coming back to the Democratic party, at least in terms of how they feel about the party.  And almost every demographic just can't stand the Republicans.  The big question of course is why the hell are the people who can't stand Republicans and like the Democrats still walking in the voting booth and pulling the lever for the Republicans?!

So this poll sure says we're not heading into another 2010 type disaster, and if we can get some of our D's to fulfill their duty and get to the polls and vote, we're going to pull out a lot of those close Senate and Governor races in Nov.

GOTV! GOTV!

Originally posted to pollwatcher on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 11:06 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  not so sure. (0+ / 0-)

    I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. ALso do not count on cries for impeachment- I think that idea has now been dropped by at least the republicans.

    •  But it isn't up to Republicans pols (0+ / 0-)

      This cry will be coming from their base and they will have to deal with it. Any EOs between now and the end of this month will just serve to further inflame them, especially with "Impeachment Week" beginning August 23rd - should provide quite a few popcorn moments if it takes off as expected.  (◕‿◕)

      Please note that lamps in the Magic Lamp Emporium are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

      by Mopshell on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:52:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The really bad news (8+ / 0-)

    is the gerrymandering. Democrats will probably get the most votes and it won't matter.

    •  Senate, Governors, legislatures... (8+ / 0-)

      It won't matter much for the house, but the reason they were able to gerrymander was because they captured so many legislatures.  Local races are very important and we have to get out and support our local Dems.

      •  Yes and the Gerrymandering Affects Local (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David54, pollwatcher, Woody

        legislatures too. The political malpractice of the Dems failing to take 2010 a census year more aggressively will be casting a shadow over us for 30-40 more years to come, it's a disaster we are not yet fully appreciating.

        Best we can do is turnout and never let it happen again.

        Probably if we're calculating effort vs payoff, if seniors are trending our way it'd be best to pile onto them because they turn out more than any other bunch.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 12:05:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  When we next take the House (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mopshell

          which I expect to happen in 2016 (unless the Republicans really shoot themselves in the foot, say with another government shutdown, and we win it this time) we will have the opportunity to put through a new Voting Rights Act to outlaw partisan gerrymanders and voter suppression, and institute a SCOTUS-proof preclearance list. There are some draft bills in circulation.

          The effect in gerrymandered swing states would be a lot like a 7% shift in the entire electorate.

          There are several major GOTV operations in critical swing states, led by Moral Mondays in North Carolina. Georgia can be put in play by getting most of the 800,000 unregistered Black voters there, and serious money is being applied to that effort. Fewer than 300,000 votes would completely flip the statewide races. Texas will take longer, but Battleground Texas is in it for the long game, not just to win once, but to turn Texas Blue. Demographic shifts make that inevitable, but we might be able to speed it up by a cycle or two.

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 01:12:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  7 points is said to be the threshhold ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mopshell

      where gerrymandering is insufficient to hold the House for Republicans.

      "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

      by Demi Moaned on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 11:46:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't trust any polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock

    Done by FOX (Faux News).  They can skew the polls to reflect ginning up their base to GOTV.  

    Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

    by Rosalie907 on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 11:27:30 AM PDT

  •  In 2012 (10+ / 0-)

    Republicans had that same level of intensity-gap advantage, but it didn't matter. Our voters turned out, even if they weren't interested.

    It's easier to do that in a presidential year, however. So like I've been saying, "if we turn out, we win", and that's easier said than done in an non-presidential-year election.

    But here's the thing: +6 D gives us about a 50-50 chance of winning back the House. So it's not just "if we turn out, we win", but "if we turn out, Nancy Pelosi might be speaker again". That's a BIG carrot, and one we should definitely be fighting toward.

    •  You give new meaning to optimism. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai, Victor Ward, Mopshell

      I didn't have the nerve to imply we actually had a shot at the house, but it's still August and when those executive orders start coming down it's going to bring the wing nuts out of the wood work, so why not go for it all?!

      •  Exactly! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pollwatcher

        I share Kos's optimism. There's a lot of empowerment and momentum in going for it all - it's quite surprising how many willing hands and inspiring voices can move mountains.

        Please note that lamps in the Magic Lamp Emporium are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

        by Mopshell on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:58:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And all the critical events which will affect (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pollwatcher

      turnout have yet to happen. Let's see now...

      There's EOs due to be issued soon, at least one of them dealing with the refugee crisis - that alone will set off the RWNJs.

      Someone experienced an acute brainfart and came up with the notion of "Impeachment Week" beginning August 23rd:

      What This Group Is Doing Could Be A Game Changer
      Republican candidates are going to have to deal with this - after all, they built it - and the timing is impeccable with them all spread out over the country with no coordinated response. Space cadets like Bachmann, King, Gohmert etc will be operating completely independently and can be relied upon to talk themselves into a deep chasm. (◕‿◕)

      Another budget debate is due in Congress prior to October 1st and will have such controversial issues on the agenda as the re-authorization of the Export-Import Bank and the refugee crisis. Cruz is itching for another shutdown and may well make a move then with his faithful House followers falling in behind him. Boehner can't control them and McCarthy is worse than useless.

      Fun times ahead! (◕‿◕)

      Please note that lamps in the Magic Lamp Emporium are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

      by Mopshell on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 07:14:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This fits with most polling (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, Gary Norton, Woody

    link

    That McClatchy/Marist poll looks like an outlier.

    Ras changes every week, and they are the only other pollster to give GOP an edge since June.

    We cant be too excited about this for some of the reasons stated. Gerrymandering limits Dems gains, as does the enthusiasm gap(although I dont think I've heard of "interested voters" before, I wonder how it compares to likely voters).

    That said, this is a midterm. Those are usually difficult for the party in the WH, so if Dems managed less than 5 seat loss or better, I think that's not too bad considering the circumstances.  

  •  This... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gary Norton

    one really emphasizes that the (and unfortunately my) greedy Generation X is the last hurrah of the Republican base.

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 12:01:54 PM PDT

  •  Reason/Rope had D+1 among LVs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gary Norton

    unfortunately I never saw the top lines, just the spread tweeted by Harry Enten.

  •  Ultimately, voting outcomes conform more closely (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mopshell

    to registered voter breakdown than to likely or interested voters.

    Voting is the means by which the public is distracted from the realities of power and its exercise.

    by Anne Elk on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 04:57:01 PM PDT

    •  Indeed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mopshell

      The Republicans had a 7 pt lead in the last Fox News poll before the 2010 elections, and that's about how it broke down on election night.

      I find the distinction between registered voters and likely voters doesn't matter much - how is someone not interested in voting if they're willing to answer a poll about it?

      •  By singling out "interested voters" (0+ / 0-)

        it seems to me that Fox is trying to skew the results their way to give their followers confidence. However, it's more likely to lull them into a false sense of security which is all the better for Dems who are well aware of the need to GOTV and won't let up no matter what any poll says.

        Please note that lamps in the Magic Lamp Emporium are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

        by Mopshell on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 07:18:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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