The trajectory of the Republican primaries was set weeks ago, but it is possible for a few surprises here and there. I'm not touching the legislative races, although you can usually assume that the candidate with the most right wing views and least actual knowledge what the legislature does will be the winner.
Despues del salto...
GOVERNOR: Former ice cream salesman Doug Ducey has got this one locked down. The biggest surprise so far is how badly Secretary of State Ken Bennett is doing. I spoke to one Republican operative about it, and he thinks that Bennett, at this point anyway, may just be running in anticipation of John McCain stepping aside in 2016 (either for Senate or more likely for one of the congressional seats that could open up when he goes). He is at the back of the pack among the serious candidates at 14%.
By the way, when Bennett led early polls, his numbers were right about the same (with a lot of undecideds). Whatever campaigning he's done hasn't worked.
I never bought Mesa Mayor Scott Smith's resurgence in recent polls. The reasoning given by pundits was the fighting between Doug Ducey and Go Daddy exec Christine Jones. Some people attributed it to the endorsement by Governor Jan Brewer. Given the timing, I have my doubts. I know that some people are giving Smith a chance for a win or at least second place, but put him in third.
I saw Republican operative Barrett Marson on public tv's Sunday Square Off point to the the lack of traction that Andrew Thomas and Frank Riggs have gotten as evidence that immigration is no longer an issue. Given that Ducey and Jones demagogue on immigration with the best of them, it's not that Republican voters have moved on from Mexican bashing. It's just that they want candidates that give the appearance of sanity.
One more word on Smith: earlier this year, a good number of Democrats in Phoenix had been talking up Smith as okay and worthy of support. He's no moderate, he's just a guy that knew how to run a city. If "moderate Republican" now means "he doesn't seem like an asshole," we might as well stop having elections and just do what the Chamber of Commerce tells us. They know the common good, right?
I haven't heard this talk lately. Good thing.
SECRETARY OF STATE: It's going to be Justin Pierce. Michelle Regan should be running away with this, but Pierce's dad's connections have helped. Will Cardon has for the second election in a row pulled a disappearing act after making a big deal about running.
ATTORNEY GENERAL: Mark Brnovich is leading in polls, but not by as much a he had in the past. Incumbent Tom Horne has been running last minute ads claiming that the arch-conservative Brnovich is a closet Democrat and likely illegal alien appologist for a single contribution to Pete Rios, the last Democratic State Senate President. This is a variant of Horne's "Watch out for the scary Mexican" campaign that he ran against Jaime Molera in his first statewide race. Horne has a shot (even if I think the last minute silliness will only work on the margins), but Brnovich is your likely winner.
By the way, don't give any of the Republican officials that called for Horne's resignation at the beginning of the summer any post-partisan cred. Many of them admitted that they were worried that he'd lose to Democrat Felecia Rotellini.
TREASURER: Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman has been claiming that he'll balance the budget. It's a frustrating assertion not only because the State Treasurer doesn't set the budget but because Hallman should know better. The other candidates are Jeff DeWitt and former Republican chairman Randy Pullen. All three candidates are close in the polling, highly unreliable in this race. If an inexperienced ideologically impaired hack like Pullen pulls this out...geez, why do I bother?
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION: Yes, people are giving it to Diane Douglas, but I think current Supe John Huppenthal will win. Douglas has a narrow lead in the polls, but Huppenthal's troubles don't seem to be the sort that would tick off primary voters the way that Horne's do (talking anonymous crap about liberals and Hispanics on blogs isn't going to earn the enmity of people that love Joe Arpaio). He's been pressing the right (and by right, you know what I mean) buttons for years, and I don't see voters abandoning him.
Interesting thing about Huppenthal: he's never been particularly well liked by his colleagues. This is a big part of why there hasn't been the rallying behind this incumbent like you'd expect.
CORPORATION COMMISSION: Like Hugh Hallman, Tom Forsee and Doug Little are making a strange claim: their signs bear the legend "FIGHTING OBAMA." I don't know how that goes, exactly, given that the commission is responsible for regulating securities and utilities. Hey, why the heck not?
It seems to be working: Forsee and Little are the odds on favorite against perennial candidate Vernon Parker and former legislator (and best qualified) Lucy Mason. It helps when the big utilities are bankrolling your campaign.
About those big utilities: Forsee and Little, in a move that said they figured out what the office does, are now promising lower utility rates. That is, lower for anyone who doesn't have solar panels. Other wise, they'll stick it to 'em.
Anyone remember when Vernon Parker was the Republican Obama?