The Kansas shakeup can't be underestimated especially with the PPP poll a month ago showing Orman leading Roberts 43-33. This has moved Sam Wang's model by 20 points.
Senate, September 04, 2014 07:00 AM:Democrats: 51GOP: 49Meta-margin: D +1.6% Probability of Democratic control: today's snapshot 90%, Election Day prediction 85%
Other people with crystal balls are trying to figure this out also:
From Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com
There was also a recent survey, from Public Policy Polling (PPP), which showed Orman ahead of Roberts 43-33 in a potential two-way race. The same poll had shown Taylor trailing Roberts by 4 percentage points in the event Orman dropped out.
If the PPP survey is accurate, this is a huge problem for Republicans. Suddenly, they’re behind in a race against a former Democrat who might caucus with the Democratic Party should he make it to the Senate.
From
The Rothenberg Report:
A spectacular confluence of events has built the credible scenario that a Republican could lose a U.S. Senate race in Kansas. Roberts is a long-time incumbent who doesn’t live in or regularly return to his home state. He faces a credible and well-funded independent candidate who is striking all the right tones in his message and doesn’t have a legislative record to be picked apart. And Republican Gov. Sam Brownback has fanned the flames of a long-time civil war in the state that is rallying some GOPers against establishment figures within their own party.
From
The Hill:
National Republicans haven’t yet weighed in on the race, but one report indicated the National Republican Senatorial Committee is facing pressure to send resources down to support Roberts, and there’s talk of a campaign staff shakeup for the incumbent.
...
But the effort to nationalize the race may be enough to mitigate any discontent with Roberts in Kansas, which is a deep-red state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s.
And from the
right wing blog the Breitbart report
The Republican establishments inability to let go of tired old dogs and allow room for new, fresh thinkers to break through may yet cause them a problem in the Kansas Senate race.
...
At a minimum, the new dynamics may force the GOP to spend time and money that's needed elsewhere in defending Roberts. Additionally, voters looking for a change likely don't see that in Roberts, who emerged as a symbol of an old and some say corrupt GOP establishment after a bitter primary.
Of course Orman actually has to win this. It probably will be a close race but it's well within his reach according to the last PPP poll. Hopefully we'll get some new polls within a week and we'll know if this is a real game changer, or if this will be just a false flash of hope for the Dems.
The Robert's campaign has responded with an attack on Orman.
“Chad Taylor’s withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race reveals a corrupt bargain between Greg Orman and national Democrats including Sen. Harry Reid that disenfranchises Kansas Democrats,” the statement said. “We are confident that Kansas voters will quickly see through this charade.”