~90% of gov incumbents get a higher % of vote than Cuomo is getting right now in his primary...
— @ForecasterEnten
Wow. Cuomo may be cruising statewide, but he can't be happy Zephyr Teachout is winning 19 counties right now. #NYGOV
— @Redistrict
Stuart Rothenberg:
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.
Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.
Charlie Cook:
The Democrats whom I have talked and emailed with in recent weeks seem increasingly resigned to an ugly midterm election. Of course, it's not likely to be the wipeout that 2010 was—after all, in the House, the best news for Democrats is that you can't lose seats you don't have. After losing 63 seats in 2010 and getting only eight back in 2012, Democrats don't have that many more they can lose.
While the contest for the majority in the Senate has many facets, none is more important than whether Democrats can hold onto any of their six most vulnerable seats: those that are up in states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Three of them—the open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia—look pretty hopeless for Democrats. The remaining three incumbents—Mark Begich in Alaska, where Romney won by 14 points; Mark Pryor in Arkansas, which Romney carried by 24 points; and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, where Romney won by 17 points—all look increasingly problematic for Democrats. And, of course, what happens in states where Obama and Romney were reasonably close—as in Colorado (Mark Udall), North Carolina (Kay Hagan), and the Iowa open seat—is also key. So, too, are the outcomes in GOP-held states and in strong Obama states. If Democrats get wiped out in red states, that could be the whole ball game when it comes to Senate control. They had better knock off a Republican seat somewhere and sweep the purple states.
This election is far from over, but if Democrats return to town after their August break pretty skittish, I wouldn't be surprised.
Democrats can take IA, CO and NC. But they have to win somewhere else, or they'll lose the Senate.
More politics and policy below the fold.
Huffington Post rounds up ISIS/ISIL polling amongst nervous Americans.
NY Times:
The White House is wrestling with a series of challenges in preparation for potential airstrikes in Syria, including how to train and equip a viable ground force and intervene without aiding President Bashar al-Assad, people briefed on the plans said Tuesday.
As President Obama cobbles together a coalition of countries to fight the Sunni militant group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, he is also encountering tensions from would-be partners like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are reluctant to battle ISIS too publicly.
In a prime-time address on Wednesday evening, Mr. Obama is to explain to Americans his strategy for “degrading and ultimately destroying the terrorist group,” the White House said in a statement. The people briefed on the president’s plans described a long-term campaign far more complex than the targeted strikes the United States has used against Al Qaeda in Yemen, Pakistan and elsewhere.
Politico:
The White House is circulating a proposal for new authority to arm and equip Syrian rebels, deepening U.S. involvement in the battle against Islamic militants.
The move would force lawmakers to take a position on a key element of the White House’s soon-to-be-unveiled strategy to confront the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. President Barack Obama will lay out a detailed plan against ISIL during a primetime speech to the nation on Wednesday night as the growing turmoil in the Middle East increasingly dominates the national debate ahead of the midterm elections.
The language the administration is considering would prop up Syrian rebels without committing the U.S. to sending ground troops into Syria.
“Without an anomaly, the Department of Defense’s ability to begin a program to train and equip appropriately vetted Syrian opposition fighters would be delayed, affecting the Administration’s overall efforts to degrade ISIL and help bring about an end to the conflict,” according to a copy of the White House summary obtained by POLITICO.
Obama's taking a beating this week in the polls. Two examples:
ABC/WaPo and
NBC/WSJ.
New NBC/WSJ numbers don't give Dems more reason for optimism about Nov. 40% Obama job approve. +2 GOP generic advantage.
— @StuPolitics
Yet (
Aaron Blake):
President Obama is a drag on Democrats this year, any way you slice it. His disapproval rating has been hovering around 60 percent in the key Senate states, that hasn't gotten better, and 55 percent of registered voters rate his presidency as a "failure." The history of an unpopular president's party in midterm election is even gloomier.
But tucked inside Tuesday's new Washington Post-ABC News poll is a semi-encouraging figure for Democrats: Among the clear majority of Americans who disapprove of Obama (54 percent), a little bit less than three-quarters of them say they are voting Republican in the coming election -- just 72 percent.
I say "just" 72 percent, because that's in contrast to the 85 percent of Obama approvers who say they will vote for Democrats. In other words, opposing Obama is not an analogue for voting Republican in the upcoming election. And that's why Democrats still have at least a fighting chance to keep the Senate (current generic ballot: 46 percent for Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans).
Matt Sledge:
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blasted police militarization at a congressional hearing Tuesday, catching off guard a Pentagon official, who could not explain why local cops need 12,000 bayonets.
But libertarian and conservative gun lovers are even more confused about the Pentagon program that distributes free military gear to local police. Especially since the congressman who drafted a bill to curb the giveaways is a Democrat