You all remember Young Guns? No, not Charlie Sheen and Emilio Estevez. No, the book written by Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan about the new (and presumably cooler and sexier, I guess) generation of conservative leaders. The book became the titular inspiration for the Young Guns program. Watch out world, here come these young, idea filled candidates.
Well, yes and no. Despite the word "young," the program was never about recruiting young candidates as much as supporting strong challengers in swing districts. "A decent challenger has emerged in a seat we can win Guns" doesn't sound as good.
If you need any further proof that the program isn't about young, vibrant candidates, you need only look at the rather pudgy and tired Andy Tobin, your 56 year old "Young Gun" from Arizona's first congressional district.
Tobin is a member of the legislative leadership in Arizona, and as befitting that description, is a leading example of what is wrong with the legislature here. In addition to being the chief shepherd of the standard issue ALEC agenda that's been pushed in too many places in this country, he also was the leading force pushing SB 1062. This so-called religious rights law would have basically been Jim Crow for gays had the governor not vetoed it. The new generation of conservative leaders indeed.
And speaking of the governor, she had a momentary lapse of caring for the future of our state (moved along by a few hospital lobbyists) and successfully pushed for Medicaid expansion here. Guess who fought that one tooth and nail? Not only that, Tobin signed on to a lawsuit to try to prevent it from happening.
You might think that this would have helped him in the primary. Despite having the endorsements of just about everyone, his rather limp campaign nearly lost to a rancher that no one had heard of.
Well, there was that horse.
Anyway, all that is just my foreword. I wanted to talk about this week's Tobin news.
On Tuesday, Tobin released a poll showing that he is 8 points ahead of Ann Kirkpatrick. There's a bit of a problem. The poll undersampled Native Americans. The polling memo showed that only 6% of the sample was Native Americans, whereas the district, as the Democratic Party pointed out, is nearly one quarter Native American.
Recovering Arizona Republic reporter Robbie Sherwood had a rejoinder:
Tobin blew off the Navajo Nation Parade last week, something that Republican candidates have been happy to attend in the past. Even 2012 carpet bagger candidate Jonathan Paton knew enough to show last time. Tobin must believe the 6% figure in that poll and not bothering.
The Navajos are far from the only Native Americans in the district, but at around 170,000 registered members in Arizona, it dwarfs our other tribes (the second largest in the district, at a little more than 10,000, is the San Carlos Apache, on whose reservation Kirkpatrick grew up).
Will their turnout be at 25% percent? Unfortunately, not. Like any minority community, it's a struggle to get folks to vote. However, the Navajo have a hotly contested presidential election this year. Their turnout could equal or surpass the nearly 15% of the total vote that they accounted for in 2012.
The firm that did this poll also predicted a five point Romney victory in 2012, by the way.
Whether it's undercounting minority voters in polls or the "unskewing" meme we saw in the last election, I have to wonder if these guys are really thinking that minority turnout will be that low or if they are just hoping it will be.