Democratic nominee Bruce Braley (right) with Sen. Tom Harkin
On Saturday night Democrats got some bad news when the respected Selzer poll gave Republican Joni Ernst a
44-38 lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. Democrats released a response poll showing a tie, all but confirming that what had once looked Braley's race to lose had turned into a tough fight. On Tuesday PPP released their own poll and while it was better for Democrats than Selzer, things still aren't looking good in the Hawkeye State. PPP gives
Ernst a small 44-42 lead: The group's
last independent poll from a month ago found Braley up by 1 point. A
more recent late August PPP poll for Americans for Tax Fairness had Ernst up 45-43.
This is one race where third-party candidates aren't having much of an impact: When voters are asked to only choose between Ernst and Braley, the GOP keeps their 2-point lead. The undecideds report voting for Obama over Romney 10-6 and they could give Braley a small boost, but far from enough to let him break open a real lead. Neither candidate is popular at all. Ernst spots a 42-46 favorable rating, while Braley is at 37-44. However, while the favorability gap between the two isn't large, it's been moving in the wrong direction. Back in August PPP found Braley with a 37-41 rating while Ernst was at 36-46. If Ernst has been getting less unpopular while Braley has been absorbing more blows, that's bad news for Team Blue.
It's possible that the GOP's recent spending blitz has something to do with this and Democrats will be able to seize the imitative in the next few weeks: Democrats have more ads reserved for the final stretch of the race. The good news is that Ernst gives Democrats plenty of material to use against her, but Braley has his own flaws that the GOP is more than happy to keep exploiting. Either side can pull off a win here, but Braley and his allies can't afford to allow Ernst to keep recovering.
PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial contest and finds what basically everyone has found: Republican Gov. Terry Branstad is looking very good to win another term. A few months ago Branstad's numbers looked a bit weak, and Democrats had some hope that Jack Hatch could pull off a surprise. But PPP now finds Branstad up 50-36, and neither party has gotten involved here recently. Selzer recently found Branstad up by a similar 48-34. The governor has a strong 53-38 approval rating, while opinions of Hatch are very mixed. Branstad, who served from 1983 to 1999 before returning in 2011, is already the longest serving governor in American history, and it looks like Iowans are happy to keep him around for another four years.
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