Let me begin by saying that I wish that Elizabeth Warren would be the next President of the United States. I simply don’t think she is going to run. If she does run, I will back her whole-heartedly. But I won’t believe she’s running until I see it. So, in the meantime, I am supporting Brian Schweitzer for President. And here’s why:
General Elections are decided by the Electoral College map. The first, second, and third most important things to consider in choosing the most likely winner are electoral college math, electoral college math, and electoral college math.
And while the hack pundit wisdom is that Hillary is the most likely victor in 2016, we need to remember that these are the folks who brought us Hillary’s “inevitability” at this stage 8 years ago.
There is one and only one way to determine which candidate is most likely to win the General Election. And that is by looking for the candidate who possesses the biggest realistic Electoral College map.
And right now there is no living Democrat (with the possible exception of Bill Clinton) who has a larger realistic Electoral College map than does Brian Schweitzer.
Brian Schweitzer's realistic Electoral College map is nine states bigger than Hillary's.
I'll elaborate more over the hump.
Since the late ‘60s, Democrats have had an image problem. We’ve struggled with rural voters. We’ve struggled with the down-home vote. We’ve struggled with the cowboy voter. We've struggled with the military voter. To a lot of voters, we’ve been seen as the party of radical hippies, big city elitists, and Volvo-driving, espresso-sipping ninnies who are out of touch with rural and middle America. It’s irrelevant whether that’s accurate or fair. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that it is the case in the minds of huge swaths of voters.
Brian Schweitzer offers us the chance to change that image. And change it for a generation. This guy is a red, white, and blue, cowboy-rancher, sh!& kickin’, gun-toting populist who led a purplish-red state to the left with a Republican running mate while maintaining big-time popularity. This guy is about as down-home authentic as it gets. He’s not afraid to speak his mind and let you know it. And in Montana, he got legions of rural Republicans to vote for him.
Reagan had his Reagan-Democrats. Schweitzer would have his Schweitzer-Republicans.
And because of this, he reaches voters that no other leading Democrat can reach.
Now, let’s talk about that map.
First…Hillary’s map:
The only state that Hillary puts into play that Obama didn’t win is 2012 is Arkansas. And she makes purple states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida hard fights again. Hillary’s Electoral College range is realistically between 259 and 338. If she ran, she would likely win. It is not certain, but it’s likely.
Next up…Schweitzer’s map:
There isn’t a single state that Obama won that Schweitzer wouldn’t also win. Because he takes Obama’s built-in advantage with big city liberals and adds a rural dynamic that no Democrat in a generation has been able to touch.
A real deal cowboy-rancher like this would put purple states like Montana, Alaska, North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina into play for Democrats. No other Democrat can make that claim. No other Democrat can even come close to making that claim. And he would make hard-fought states like Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and New Mexico Democratic shoo-ins.
Brian Schweitzer's realistic Electoral College map is nine states bigger than Hillary's. Nine. That’s absolutely huge. This cowboy-rancher puts states into play for Democrats that we haven’t been able to touch for a generation.
By putting 9 additional states into play, his in-play Electoral College range tops out at 413.
Does this necessarily mean he’ll reach 413? No. But it means he begins with a significantly bigger in-play map than Hillary giving him far greater room for error and far less a chance of being able to lose.
By adding nine states to the Democrats’ in-play map, he puts more states realistically in-play for Democrats than any General Election candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
General Elections are Electoral Map-based. And any top campaign manager, media strategist, and pollster knows this. It’s the map, stupid. What matters is Electoral College math.
And there is no potential 2016 Democrat with better Electoral College math than Brian Schweitzer.
This red, white, and blue cowboy can broaden the Democratic Party’s image and range in a bigtime way.
(In future diaries, I'll get into why it's about more than just math; it's about the issues.)