This week featured the release of 437 pages of polling data from all 50 states via the CBS/NYT/YouGov polls. While there were a handful of oddball results, it was not too many more than might be expected from your average group of 60+ election polls. When the margin (D-R) of each poll was compared to a local regression of all polls in each respective contest (when possible), the YouGov polls, on average, were only about half a point more Republican in the margin than the polling average. Also, keep in mind that there were simply too few respondents in some of the smaller states (ND, SD, VT, and WY).
Here's a graph of how YouGov Senate and Governor polls have compared to the polling averages since 2010 (a handful of polls from earlier in the cycle have not been included):
Points above the red line were more Democratic in the margin than other polls of that contest at that time; below, they were more Republican. It's a little difficult to see, but YouGov polls have tended to move toward the polling average as we get closer to election day. For instance, their final Senate and Governor polls in 2010 and 2012 were on average 0.1 points away from the polling average of the margin, with a standard deviation of 3.7; in contrast, their July polls this year were on average 1.3 points too Republican in the margin, with a standard deviation of 5.4.
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Below the fold, a few interesting nuggets of information from this massive data release.
Where are they now? The forgotten - or rather, rarely-polled - races.
Aside from feeding our favorite election models, the YouGov release also provided a rare look at many infrequently polled contests, which, although inconsequential, are sometimes nonetheless fascinating. For the most part these races yielded no surprises.
In Mississippi, we can see that conservatives are still sore - Cochran is now ahead by only 11 percentage points, with 16% undecided, as Republicans sit and stew while the last dregs of the primary drama play out.
In Montana, Amanda Curtis is struggling in one of the more lopsided campaigns, with 76% of respondents saying they have seen advertisements for her opponent, but only 32% saying they have seen Curtis ads. Presumably as a result, her net favorability is slightly underwater, 32/35. Given the circumstances of the campaign, however, it is to her credit that she's managed to do what she has.
YouGov also sees a single-digit race for Rhode Island governor, albeit with 19% undecided and a profound Democratic lean to the state - Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot question by 17 points.
Finally we see the Senate race in Wyoming really breaking away, with a 58-point lead for Republican Mike Enzi. This is the largest lead of any poll we've seen all year! The sample size is too small, however, so take these results with a chunk of salt.
The release is also filled with additional questions, such as on marriage equality and minimum wage. The most interesting piece of information I found is that Begich is outhustling every other Senate candidate when it comes to field work. 35% of Alaska respondents report having had contact with the Begich campaign. The runner-up, unfortunately, is McConnell at 29%.
A bit of trivia
The data also provide a look at the favorability numbers for every topline candidate and sitting Senator and Governor.
The most popular Senator is Vermont's Bernie Sanders, with 69% favorability. However, Hawaii's Brian Schatz has the highest net favorability, +50. Sens. Coburn, Sanders, Leahy, and Enzi trail by only a few points on this measure.
Interestingly, there's more than a few Senate candidates (non-incumbent) who are underwater on favorability this year, including Gardner, Land, Tillis, Brown and Wehby. Wehby is the winner in this category with a net favorability of -15.
The gender gap
One thing that is interesting about the YouGov polls is the truly massive gender gap. In the most recent polls, for instance, there's a 45-point gender gap in GA-Sen, and a 48-point gender gap for GA-Gov. Virginia shows a gap in the high 30s. Overall, the average gender gap in the YouGov polls is in the mid-20s. This is not likely to be realistic.
This isn't new, though; YouGov saw much larger gender gaps in 2012 than other polls as well, gaps that were larger than the exit polls. Despite this, their overall record was pretty good.
Where might an unusually large gender gap come from? Perhaps it's the online methodology. It's easy to imagine why male respondents would be more conservative online than off if you've read many YouTube comments; but why would online women be more liberal? At any rate, like most polls, it doesn't pay to take the crosstabs too seriously.
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