Michelle Nunn
Leading Off:
• GA-Sen, Gov: On Wednesday, SurveyUSA gave Democrat Michelle Nunn her best poll in a long time. The group has her up by a small 48-45 margin over Republican David Perdue, up from Perdue's 46-45 edge a week before.
What's more important is that Nunn is closer to winning the majority of the vote she needs to avoid a runoff in January. As we've noted in the past, Democratic turnout tends to disproportionality drop in irregularity-scheduled elections and it may be tough for Nunn to win if this goes into overtime. With Libertarian Amanda Swafford taking 3 percent there are only about 4 percent undecided, so Nunn doesn't have a lot of room for error to get to 50 percent plus one vote.
This is just one poll, and other pollsters still show Nunn further away from 50 percent. In the last week Landmark, which used to be Nunn's best pollster, showed her moving in the wrong direction. However, both national parties have recently upped their spending in the Peach State. The DSCC reportedly has unreleased polls showing Nunn close to the majority she needs. We'll see if other public polls show Nunn closing in on 50 percent or if this turns out to be an outlier.
SurveyUSA also took a look at the gubernatorial race and finds Republican Gov. Nathan Deal and Democrat Jason Carter tied at 46 percent each. Libertarian Andrew Hunt takes 4 percent, leaving only 4 percent undecided in this survey. On one hand, this is better than the 46-44 Deal lead they recently found. Still, Carter looks far from the majority he would also need to avoid a runoff (the gubernatorial runoff would be in December). Most other polls also have both candidates far from a majority, and right now it's hard to see either man winning outright in November.
3Q Fundraising:
• AK-Sen: Mark Begich (D-inc) $1.9 million raised, $1.2 million on hand; Dan Sullivan (R) $2.8 million raised, $1.16 million on hand
• LA-Sen: Mary Landrieu (D-inc) $2.7 million raised, $3.5 million on hand; Bill Cassidy (R) $2.5 million raised, $4.4 million on hand; Rob Maness (R) $1 million raised; $388,000 on hand
• MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D) $2.3 million raised
• Gubernatorial: DGA (D) $19.7 million raised; RGA (R) $21.5 million raised
Senate:
• KS-Sen: As we've noted previously, one of independent Greg Orman's biggest difficulties is his lack of a party infrastructure to help him down the stretch run. But now the AFL-CIO will reportedly endorse him, and while they won't run ads on his behalf, they will us their ground apparatus—which is gearing up to help Democrat Paul Davis in the gubernatorial race—to push Orman as well. That's probably for the best, as Orman needs much more help with infrastructure than he does with advertising.
• KY-Sen: Following on the news that the DSCC is going dark in Kentucky comes word that the Senate Majority PAC is doing the same. Between them, the two groups had already spent $6 million on the airwaves on behalf of Alison Grimes, but they currently have no ad reservations for the final three weeks. DSCC chair Michael Bennet did claim on Wednesday that his committee is still polling and could reverse course, but presumably the decision to stop advertising already had a lot of poll data supporting it.
• Polling: I hear there are some Senate races going on this year. True?
• CO-Sen: CNN/ORC: Cory Gardner (R): 50, Mark Udall (D-inc): 46
• GA-Sen: SurveyUSA: Michelle Nunn (D): 48, David Perdue (R): 45 (Oct. 6: 46-45 Perdue)
• IA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Joni Ernst (R): 47, Bruce Braley (D): 45 (Sept.: 50-44 Ernst)
• IA-Sen: Suffolk: Ernst: 47, Braley: 43 (Aug.: 40-40 tie)
• LA-Sen: Rasmussen: Bill Cassidy (R): 52, Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 43 (Sept.: 44-41 Cassidy)
• NH-Sen: Kiley (D): Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 50, Scott Brown (R): 44 (Sept.: 51-43 Shaheen) (conducted for Shaheen)
• NH-Sen: New England College: Brown: 48, Shaheen: 47 (Oct. 3: 49-46 Shaheen)
CNN's Colorado poll certainly won't make Democrats feel good, but here's something to consider: Among registered voters, Udall actually holds a 46-45 lead. CNN has long shown wide gaps between LV and RV samples, but there's a good reason to think that the gulf should be smaller in Colorado than in most other places. That's because the state just moved to an
all-mail voting system—plus same-day registration—which makes casting a ballot easier than ever. That means that Democrats shouldn't have as difficult a time motivating their voters as they might elsewhere, so you'd expect RV numbers to be closer to the truth.
However, Udall's own campaign says that their last two internal polls (which they aren't releasing) have showed a tie. Just a month ago, Udall's polls had him up 5-6 points, so that's a pretty worrisome tightening. Democrats will need an awesome ground game to pull this one out.
Iowa is still pretty pukey for Democrats, too, though at least Quinnipiac has come back down to earth. Suffolk's gone the other direction, however, and their numbers are certainly heart-burning, but their last poll was before the recent Democratic swoon. Either way, it's not looking very good.
As for New Hampshire, New England College hasn't acquitted itself very well so far this cycle, but this does mark the first time an independent poll has found Brown ahead. Shaheen's internals, at least, only show a slight narrowing, unlike Udall's, but HuffPo Pollster's average now has her ahead just 3 points (accounting for both of these new surveys).
Gubernatorial:
• WI-Gov: The respected Marquette Law poll takes another look at Wisconsin's gubernatorial contest, and they find things are as close as ever:
Mary Burke (D): 47
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47
Marquette's last poll from two weeks ago showed Walker leading 50-45. This new survey
interrupts a small streak of polls that gave Walker a lead.
Plenty of ad dollars have been sunk into this race, but both candidates' favorable ratings remain as polarized as ever. Walker has a 50-48 favorable rating, while Burke has a 44-44 rating. Walker and his allies have spent millions hitting Burke over her campaign platform after it emerged that a former adviser copied it from other campaigns he'd worked on. It doesn't seem to have done much though. For months it's looked like this race will come down to turnout and a very small pool of persuadable voters, and that hadn't changed.
• Polling: Look! Up in the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Superma... oh wait no, it's eight new gubernatorial polls.
• AK-Gov: Rasmussen: Bill Walker (I) 50, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 41 (Sept: 46-41 Walker)
• CO-Gov: CNN/ORC: John Hickenlooper (D-inc) 49, Bob Beauprez (R) 48
• CO-Gov: Quinnipiac: Beauprez (R) 46, Hickenlooper (D-inc) 42 (Sept: 50-40 Beauprez)
• FL-Gov: Univ. of Florida: Charlie Crist (D) 40, Rick Scott (R-inc) 40, Adrian Wyllie (L) 6 (Sept: 41-36 Scott)
• GA-Gov: SurveyUSA: Jason Carter (D) 46, Nathan Deal (R-inc) 46, Andrew Hunt (L) 4 (Oct. 6: 46-44 Deal)
• MA-Gov: MassINC: Martha Coakley (D) 42, Charlie Baker (R) 39 (Oct. 8: 41-39 Coakley)
• NH-Gov: New England College: Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 49, Walt Havenstein (R) 44 (Oct. 8: 51-41 Hassan)
• RI-Gov: Fleming: Gina Raimondo (D) 42, Allan Fung (R) 36, Robert Healey (Moderate Party) 8
A few weeks ago Quinnipiac gave Beauprez a 10-point lead over Hickenlooper, a margin that
did not look at all reasonable. Beauprez's 4-point edge isn't going to make Democrats happy and it is still one of Beauprez's
widest leads ever but it makes a lot more sense.
Like CNN/ORC's CO-Sen poll (see above), there's a huge gap among registered voters and likely voters in the gubernatorial race. Among LVs Hickenlooper leads by 1 point while among RVs he crushes 53-41. If all-mail voting boosts midterm turnout as Democrats hope it will, Hickenlooper may be in far better shape than most polls show.
There haven't been many polls of Rhode Island since the Sept. 9 primary, but Raimondo hasn't looked too impressive in the few surveys we've seen. This 6-point lead is actually her best showing but again, we don't have many polls to compare it to. Rhode Island is a deep blue state but it hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1990 (retiring Gov. Lincoln Chafee was elected as an independent before joining Team Blue midway through his term) and it's not impossible the streak will continue.
• POTUS Alert!: Barack Obama is planning to campaign for several blue state gubernatorial candidates. On the gubernatorial side, the president is set for Connecticut (Gov. Dan Malloy), Illinois (Gov. Pat Quinn), Maine (Mike Michaud), Maryland (Anthony Brown), Michigan (Mark Schauer), Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf), and Wisconsin (Mary Burke). In Michigan, Senate candidate Gary Peters will also receive Obama's support. Kind of weirdly, Pennsylvania is both the swingiest of these states (with the possible exception of Wisconsin) and also the one with the least competitive gubernatorial race.
House:
• DCCC: Greg Giroux reports on DCCC head Steve Israel's briefing Wednesday, but, as is always the case with Giroux, the main attraction is the charts. The article puts 2014 in context of every other midterm year going back to the 1930s, and if the House Democrats hold their losses to the single-digits, they're actually coming out better than average.
What's most helpful, though, is a one-stop roundup of how much the DCCC has spent this cycle and where. Surprisingly, the race that's the top recipient for funds is IL-10 ($836,000 so far), not the Dems' sorest spot, but one that's in the expensive Chicago market. That's followed by MN-08 and IL-12. Overall, it's a small battlefield this year, with only 29 races where they're playing. 19 of those races are defensive races, and defensive races account for 75 percent of the spending.
• Polling: Even for House races these days, the polling comes in regularly:
• CO-06: Keating (D): Mike Coffman (R-inc): 44, Andrew Romanoff (D): 43 (conducted for Romanoff)
• IA-03: Remington (R): David Young (R): 46, Staci Appel (D): 42
• NH-01: New England College: Frank Guinta (R) 46, Carol-Shea Porter (D-inc) 44 (Oct. 8: 47-44 Carol-Shea Porter)
• NH-02: New England College: Anne McLane Kuster (D-inc) 46, Marilinda Garcia (R) 43 (Oct. 8 50-38 Kuster)
• NJ-05: Monmouth: Scott Garrett (R-inc) 48, Roy Cho (D) 43
Remarkably, Romanoff's poll is the first we've seen in a year in Colorado's 6th, which is pretty amazing given how much money has been poured in here. And it's quite clearly designed to keep that money flowing by sending an "I'm not dead yet!" message, after news came that the DCCC had apparently triaged his race. But between this poll and the House Majority PAC stepping in in a sizable way, Romanoff can argue he still has a race on his hands.
Meanwhile, in Iowa, Remington is the first pollster ever to find a lead for Young. Remington often freelances and it doesn't appear that this survey was conducted on anyone's behalf, so you'd think that if the NRCC had good numbers of its own, they'd have released them to help prop up the struggling Young.
In New Jersey, Monmouth brings some genuinely surprising news out of a district that isn't really on anyone's list of competitive races this year. Indeed, Cho's own poll from June had Garrett up 47-34. There have been no major ad buys in this district and the political climate hasn't gotten better for Democrats since then, making it difficult to believe that Cho could have moved into striking distance in that time.
As we've often noted, Scott Garrett is the most conservative House Republican in the Northeast, but New Jersey's 5th is very inelastic, meaning it's difficult to get voters to switch sides. What's more, attorney Roy Cho doesn't have much money while Garrett has a huge stockpile, so an upset will be incredibly difficult. It's also a little hard to believe that Democrats are down just 5 points here but, according to Monmouth, 10 points in the open and swingier 3rd District. We'll soon see.
Finally in New Hampshire, we have quite a swing in the GOP's direction in both seats over the space of a week. In NH-01 NEC has the race moving 5 points in the GOP's direction which is hard to believe, but it could just be noise from the margin on error. The 9-point swing to Garcia in NH-02 is a lot harder to explain. Both parties are spending here so there isn't much doubt it's competitive: There is the unwelcome possibility that this small Kuster edge better reflects the state of the race than her previous 12-point lead. It's worth noting that a Normington Petts poll for the Democratic-friendly Americans for Responsible Solutions had Kuster up 6 in mid-September, tighter than the double-digit leads NEC found until now.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Begich on the deficit, Obamacare, and energy. On the Democratic side, Put Alaska First spends $702,000.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC argues Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor has been voting like a liberal in Washington.
• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Republican Cory Garnder on pollution and contraception, while NextGen Climate throws in another $166,000. AFSCME also goes after Gardner on abortion, as People for the American Way throws in $130,000.
On the GOP side the NRSC continues to argue that Democratic Sen. Mark Udall didn't take ISIS seriously until it was too late, while Freedom Partners goes after Udall on energy. The NRA also spends $156,000 here. Gardner himself has two ads (here and here) In the first spot he talks to the camera, saying Udall has become too partisan in Washington. The second ad has Gardner promoting energy jobs, saying he wants to promote them while Udall wants to destroy them.
• GA-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican David Perdue on education, portraying him as someone who doesn't care about schools. Perdue uses his spot to argue Democrat Michelle Nunn is hiding her support for Obama, while Perdue can create jobs.
• IA-Sen: Republican Joni Ernst uses biscuits to talk about wasteful spending. Yes, really. And it kind of works.
Also for the GOP, the NRSC continues to hammer Democrat Bruce Braley on Obamacare. For the Democrats, AFSCME and Senate Majority PAC go after Ernst on Social Security and Medicare in a joint ad.
• KS-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently committed $500,000 here, and we have their first spot. Like pretty much every pro-GOP ad, it accuses independent Greg Orman of being a liberal Democrat. Orman's own ad pushes back on Republican Sen. Pat Roberts' attacks, and tries to position himself as above the fray.
• LA-Sen: Crossroads GPS spends another $483,000 for the GOP. In the blue corner, the International Association of Firefighters spends $313,000.
• MI-Sen: Democrat Gary Peters talks about his efforts to fight China's rule breaking. Republican Terri Lynn Land speaks to the camera, saying that Congress and Obama have failed. Ending Spending also spends $115,000 for Land.
• NC-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce trots out Rand Paul for a 15-second spot. Paul argues that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan doesn't think voters are smart enough to choose their doctor, so voters should choose a new senator. The NRA also throws $281,000 at Hagan.
On the Democratic side, AFSCME goes after Republican Thom Tillis on pensions and Medicare. The DSCC also goes after Tillis on Social Security and Medicare.
• WV-Sen: Republican Shelley Moore Capito promotes herself as a fighter for West Virginia.
• Allan West Guardian Fund: Did you know former Republican Rep. Allan West has his own guardian fund? He does! And they're spending for the GOP in various races (here and here).
• AZ-Gov: Republican Doug Ducey contrasts himself with Democrat Fred Duval: Ducey portrays this as a contest between a "liberal lobbyist or a commonsense businessman."
• CO-Gov: Republican Bob Beauprez runs a negative ad about how bad the negative ads from Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper's allies are.
• FL-Gov: NextGen Climate continues tying Republican Gov. Rick Scott to Duke Energy, which it accuses of gouging customers. The Florida Republican Party fires back, hitting Democrat Charlie Crist's job record.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has two spots (here and here). The first hits Republican Bruce Rauner on property taxes. The second has the families of murder victims praising Quinn for being there for them. On the other side, Rauner's wife Diana appears in a relatively positive ad, where she decries "false vicious attacks" and machine politicians.
• MA-Gov: The DGA paints Republican Charlie Baker as an outsourcer. Also for team blue, Massachusetts Independent Expenditure PAC (an alliance of the DGA, SEIU, AFSCME, and EMILY's List) depicts Baker as an ardent conservative on guns and hits him on education cuts.
• MD-Gov: Democrat Anthony Brown rolls out the Big Dog. The spot features a rally with Bill Clinton, where the former president praises Brown's leadership.
• MN-Gov: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton.
• OR-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber has posted clear leads over Republican Dennis Richardson, but he's apparently taking nothing to chance. Kitzhaber uses his new spot to portray Richardson as an extreme conservative.
• Governors: Here's an interesting fact: More money is going to gubernatorial contests than Senate races this year. The Center for Public Integrity reports that as of Oct. 6, $332.6 million has been spent on gubernatorial races compared to $282.6 million on Senate contests. The Wall Street Journal explains the disparity: No matter who takes the Senate this year more gridlock is all but assured, but gubernatorial elections can lead to real change at the state level.
The Florida gubernatorial race has seen the most spending, with a whopping $54.9 million spent on television in this very tight race. Up next is Illinois, where both sides have spent a combined $44 million on ads. Interestingly, while Pennsylvania's Republican Gov. Tom Corbett is widely viewed as a dead man walking, his race has drawn a total of $41.3 million, making it the third most expensive contest. By contrast $39.8 million has been spent in North Carolina, which is currently the nation's most expensive Senate race.
• AR-02: American Crossroads spends $472,000 for the GOP.
• AZ-01: Republican Andy Tobin contrasts his record on border security with Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's. Also for the GOP, we learn that a recent YG Network ad ran for a hefty $735,000.
• CA-07: House Majority PAC spends $444,000 hits Republican Doug Ose on healthcare, arguing his plan doesn't cover critical services.
• CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadao hits Democrat Amanda Renteria on water in English and Spanish.
• CA-26: The American Future Fund recently ran this spot against Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley, and we learn the size-of-the-buy is $606,000.
• CA-52: AFSCME ties Republican Carl DeMaio to the tea party, a common Democratic line of attack in this race.
• FL-02: Freedom Partners contrasts Republican Rep. Steve Southerland with Democrat Gwen Graham, portraying this as a race between a dependable conservative and an Obama rubber stamp.
• FL-26: Freedom Partners hits Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia on corruption and Obamacare.
• GA-12: Center Forward spends $112,000 for Democratic Rep. John Barrow.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel contrasts her record on Social Security and Medicare with Republican David Young's, while Mayday PAC hits Young on Medicare.
• IL-10: Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider has a positive ad touting his progressive views.
• IL-12: The New Prosperity Foundation spends another $100,000 for the GOP.
• IL-13: Democrat Ann Callis contrasts her record as a judge with Republican Rep. Rodney Davis' time in Congress.
• KS-02: Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins talks about her work combating domestic violence.
• ME-02: Democrat Emily Cain continues to portray Republican Bruce Poliquin as a rich guy who bends the rules to get out of paying taxes.
• MI-01: Two spots from Republican Rep. Dan Benishek (here and here).
• MN-02: Democrat Mike Obermueller.
• ND-AL: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer.
• NJ-03: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce accuses Democrat Aimee Belgard of breaking her promises not to take a salary as freeholder or raise taxes.
• NY-01: The DCCC hits Republican Lee Zeldin on Social Security privatization.
• NY-19: Two spots from Democrat Sean Eldridge (here and here).
• NY-18: House Majority PAC spends $133,000 once again hitting Republican Nan Hayworth as a dangerous radical.
• WI-06: Republican Glenn Grothman runs against big government.
• WV-02: Democrat Nick Casey calls Republican Alex Mooney a lying carpetbagger.
• WV-03: The DCCC plays the Pace Picante card extra hard. The ad features a coal miner describing how Republican Evan Jenkins is in the pocket of the Koch brothers, billionaires from New York.
• DCCC: Various pro-Democratic expenditures.
• NRA: Pro-GOP ads in AR-02, IA-03, and MN-08.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.