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YouGov: YouGov, in partnership with the
New York Times and CBS, released its fourth (and presumably final)
batch of polls for all 50 states over the weekend. Once again, they're starting with the Senate. The chart below gathers all the data from all four rounds of YouGov polling in one place, but be warned: Some of the margins of error are extremely high, as you can see in the right-hand column. The rows highlighted in pink are the most problematic, while the orange rows are questionable:
9:13 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Attorneys General: This year both parties are spending big to win attorney general elections around the nation. Attorneys general have a good deal of influence on how laws are implemented, and they are often prime recruits for Senate and gubernatorial races. In a new post, Jeff Singer takes a state-by-state look at 2014's battles for attorney general.
9:14 AM PT: Election Night: Here's a must-bookmark resource for all election junkies: the Daily Kos Elections poll closing times map. Our handy color-coded map will let you know when to start checking returns on election night in each state on Nov. 4, and if you're hosting an election watch party, you can even print it out! Just note that all times are Eastern.
9:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Demographics: It's no secret that the electorate in midterm elections tends to be much older than in presidential cycles. Senior voters tend to vote in disproportionate numbers and skew more conservative than other age groups, giving Republicans a leg up in midterms. In a new post, Jeff Singer looks at how Democrats are working to narrow the age gap in 2014, and how Republicans are trying to run up the score with senior voters.
9:26 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Election Outlook: In the last few days we've had a ton of polls to take in. Daily Kos' Election Outlook runs the numbers and finds a bit of movement in several key races. As David Jarman explains, while our model only gives Democrats a 34 percent chance at holding the Senate, it finds numerous plausible paths for each party to win.
This is a pretty big difference from 2006, when the Senate flipped from the GOP to the Democrats. That year Team Blue had almost no room for error: Democrats knew they absolutely needed to hold each of their seats, win Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, and take either Tennessee or Virginia. This year there is a lot more unpredictability.
9:46 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Demographics: It's tempting to break the 50 states down into liberal blue states, conservative red states, and divided purple states, but that obscures plenty of complexities. For instance, while Louisiana and Texas voted for Romney by close to the same margin, Louisianans are far more supportive of raising the minimum wage. Vermont and Rhode Island are both solidly Democratic New England states, but Rhode Islanders have a much more negative view of Obamacare. And while Maryland is a far more Democratic state than Alaska, Alaskans are slightly more supportive of same-sex marriage. In a new essay David Jarman takes a look at each state's ideological quirks and finds plenty of surprises.
10:53 AM PT: Senate: The good souls at Roll Call have put together their final Senate fundraising chart of the 2014 election cycle. As you know, Senate campaigns still file their reports on paper, so compiling this chart takes a lot of legwork. Ridiculously, both Greg Orman and David Perdue refused to provide their numbers! But the table has complete data for every other competitive race.
11:08 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NM-Gov: On behalf of The Albuquerque Journal Research & Polling surveys the Land of Enchantment and finds Republican Gov. Susana Martinez leading Democrat Gary King 53-38. Two recent GOP polls also gave Martinez a clear lead, and King's camp never responded with better numbers. That is, what's left of King's camp: In mid-September he lost his campaign manager and field director.
Martinez has been quite popular in this blue state, but Democrats had some hopes that they could give her a real challenge. In late-March a survey from PPP gave Martinez only a 47-42 lead over King. However, while King was well known as the state's attorney general and as the son of former Gov. Bruce King, he was never the most compelling candidate. His fundraising was weak, and he had little money available after the primary. Martinez and her allies at the RGA proceeded to run a series of brutal ads hitting King when he couldn't effectively respond, and Martinez never took her foot off of King's throat.
King never raised anywhere near the type of money he needed to fight back late in the game, ensuring that Martinez's negative ads where the only ones most voters ever saw. In a better year New Mexico's blue hue could have given King a boost, but this is not that year. This poll is just the final nail in an already very shut coffin. Daily Kos Elections is therefore changing our race rating from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
11:28 AM PT: RI-Gov: Republican Allan Fung has thrown an utter tantrum over a recent Brown University poll that showed Democrat Gina Raimondo with a 42-31 lead, claiming the survey displayed all kinds of methodological and sampling errors. But here's the key take-away: Fung's campaign "would not release full results of its own polling," according to the Providence Journal. So there you go.
11:50 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MA-Gov: This is not encouraging. Democrat Martha Coakley just released a poll from Kiley & Company showing her behind Republican Charlie Baker 44-42. It's not a good sign at all that the best survey she could release shows her down, especially in a contest that she was expected to win until recently. The unimaginably named Democratic group Massachusetts IE PAC also recently released a poll showing Coakley up only 45-44. A recent MassInc poll gave Baker a 1-point lead, while SocialSphere found him up by 9 points.
It would be easy to look at all this and just say, "Martha Coakley's thrown away another race," but it's a bit more complicated than that. In the 2010 U.S. Senate race there's little doubt that Coakley didn't take Republican Scott Brown seriously until it was too late, and made a number of gaffes that only worsened her situation. This time around Democrats have viewed Baker as a much more credible threat: Massachusetts has a history of electing Republican governors, and it was never outside the realm of possibility that Baker could win. Coakley has also been a much more disciplined candidate this time around, and doesn't appear to have made any major tactical errors.
There is one important area where Baker is excelling: money. Coakley's fundraising hasn't been bad but it hasn't been terrific, and she needed to spend a lot of her warchest in the Sept. 9 primary. By contrast, Baker had only minor inter-party opposition and could hoard most of his money for the general election. Baker held nearly an 11 to one cash-on-hand advantage after the primary and received a good deal of air support from the RGA-funded Commonwealth Future PAC. Coakley was never able to close the cash gap enough: As of mid-October, Baker still held a $1.5 million to $319,000 cash-on-hand lead.
National Democrats have helped Coakley on the airwaves but not enough to offset the better-funded RGA. Republican outside groups have outspent Democratic ones $8,350,000 to $4,192,000, augmenting Baker's financial advantage. It's hard to know how much of Coakley's financial disparity is from the long primary, and how much may be due to poor fundraising. Still, it looks like Team Red's superior air-game helps explain why Coakley's polls are moving in the wrong direction.
It's too early to write Coakley's political obituary. That SocialSphere poll aside, most polls have shown a tight race. However, with Coakley herself releasing polls showing her down, it's hard to conclude that things are going well for her.
12:14 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• AR-Gov: Marist: Asa Hutchinson (R) 47, Mike Ross (D) 44 (Sept.: 48-39 Hutchinson)
• CO-Gov: Marist: John Hickenlooper (D-inc) 46, Bob Beauprez (R) 41 (Sept.: 43-39 Hickenlooper)
• FL-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Charlie Crist (D) 44, Rick Scott (R-inc) 42 (Oct. 14: 44-42 Scott)
• KS-Gov: Marist: Paul Davis (D) 45, Sam Brownback (R-inc) 44 (Oct. 5: 44-43 Davis)
• MA-Gov: Kiley & Company: Charlie Baker (R) 44, Martha Coakley (D) 42 (Conducted for the Martha Coakley campaign)
• MD-Gov: Gonzales Research (R): Anthony Brown (D) 46, Larry Hogan (R) 44 (Oct. 1: 47-43 Brown) (conducted for MD GOP)
• ME-Gov: UNH: Paul LePage (R-inc) 45, Mike Michaud (D) 35, Eliot Cutler (I) 16 (Sept.:41-39-14 Michaud)
• MI-Gov: Rasmussen: Rick Snyder (R-inc) 49, Mark Schauer (D) 46 (Sept.: 47-41 Snyder)
• MN-Gov: Mason-Dixon: Mark Dayton (D-inc) 45, Jeff Johnson (R) 38 (Sept.: 45-33 Dayton)
• NM-Gov: Research & Polling: Susana Martinez (R-inc) 53, Gary King (D) 38 (Sept.: 54-38 Martinez)
1:14 PM PT (David Jarman): CO-Sen: If you have time for only one long-read today, it should be the new piece for Bloomberg by Sasha Issenberg, exploring the same micro-targeting, analytics material that he covered in The Victory Lab. It looks at just who the persuadables, from the perspective of getting the Democratic candidate to 50 percent+1, are in each of the key Senate races.
His look at Colorado is especially interesting, as it dovetails with why the polls may be more wrong in Colorado than other states (the 'persuadables' in Colorado are likelier to fit into categories, like Latinos and women under 45, who are less likely to be contacted by pollsters and/or fit into likely voter screens).
One of the big problems for Mark Udall, though, is that Colorado starts with a lower Democratic baseline than a number of other states (including, surprisingly, Louisiana, which has the highest Democratic floor of any of the key states) ... but, again, Udall's 'persuadables,' who are less likely to be married or white than in many other states, may be more persuadable than the ones in states like Louisiana or Arkansas, where the persuadables are likelier to be not just white but also evangelical.
1:16 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• ME-Gov: Magellan Strategies (R): Paul LePage (R-inc) 42, Mike Michaud (D) 42, Eliot Cutler (I) 13) (Conducted for the RGA)
1:33 PM PT (Jeff Singer): ME-Gov: Some things never change. On Saturday, the University of New Hampshire's polling center produced another eyebrow raising poll. This time they found Republican Gov. Paul LePage with a 45-35 lead over Democrat Mike Michaud, with independent Eliot Cutler taking 16. Only a month ago UNH gave Michaud a 41-39 lead. In that time nothing appears to have happened to cause LePage to open up a massive lead. What's much more likely is that this is yet another example of UNH's long history of showing wild, unexplained swings. This is a problem we've noticed for years, but UNH has never shown any interest in fixing.
On Monday a group released a poll contradicting UNH's numbers, but it didn't come from Democrats trying to tamp down panic. Instead, it was Republicans who produced a Magellan Poll showing LePage tied with Michaud 42-42. This RGA-sponsored survey is very similar to a recent PPP poll conducted for Michaud's supporters at the League of Conservation Voters that found the two men deadlocked 40-40. A Michaud poll also recently found him up only 2 points. When both sides are releasing polls showing a tight race, it's a good bet that the race is tight.
1:37 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• AR-Gov: Opinion Research Assoc. (D): Ross (D) 44, Hutchinson (R) 42 (Oct. 8: 45-41 Ross) (conducted for the AR Democratic Party)
1:47 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Gov: On behalf the Maryland Republican Party, Gonzales Research takes another look at this criminally under-polled race. They find Democrat Anthony Brown leading Republican Larry Hogan 46-44. At the beginning of the month a Gonzales poll for another Republican client found Brown up 47-43.
It's a good sign for Brown that the GOP still can't give Hogan a lead. But there's no doubt that this is a real race. Both the DGA and RGA have been spending late in the game here: Democrats have been portraying Hogan as an ultra conservative, while the GOP going after Brown on tax hikes. Brown himself also took out a $500,000 loan from Laborers International Union at the beginning of October.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley took out a similar loan from a Washington lawyer in 2006 and went on to win by 7 points, so this hardly means that Brown is doomed. However, it does indicate that Brown knows he'll need all the resources he can get to come out on top Nov. 4.
2:17 PM PT: Polling: So much pollz:
• AR-Sen: Marist: Tom Cotton (R): 45, Mark Pryor (D-inc): 43 (Sept.: 45-40 Cotton)
• AR-Sen: Opinion Research Assoc. (D): Pryor: 45, Cotton: 44 (Oct. 5: 45-42 Pryor) (conducted for the AR Democratic Party)
• CO-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Mark Udall (D-inc): 44, Cory Gardner (R): 43 (conducted for DSCC)
• CO-Sen: Marist: Gardner: 46, Udall: 45 (Sept.: 48-42 Gardner)
• CO-Sen: Rasmussen: Gardner: 51, Udall: 45 (Sept.: 48-47 Gardner)
• GA-Sen: PPP (D): Michelle Nunn (D): 47, David Perdue (R): 47, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 3 (Oct. 5: 45-43-5 Perdue) (conducted for LCV)
• IA-Sen: Marist: Joni Ernst (R): 49, Bruce Braley (D): 46 (Oct. 3: 46-44 Ernst)
• KS-Sen: Marist: Greg Orman (I): 45, Pat Roberts (R): 44 (Oct. 3: 48-38 Orman)
• LA-Sen: Suffolk: Bill Cassidy (R): 48, Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 41
• MI-Sen: Rasmussen: Gary Peters (D): 51, Terri Lynn Land (R): 42 (Sept. 41-39 Peters)
• MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Al Franken (D-inc): 48, Mike McFadden (R): 39 (Sept.: 49-36 Franken)
• MT-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Steve Daines (R): 53, Amanda Curtis (D): 39 (Sept.: 54-41 Daines)
• NC-Sen: Monmouth: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 48, Thom Tillis (R): 46, Sean Haugh (Lib): 1
• NC-Sen: SurveyUSA: Hagan: 44, Tillis: 44, Haugh: 5 (Oct. 20: 46-43-7 Hagan)
• NC-Sen: Marist: Hagan: 43, Tillis: 43, Haugh: 7 (Oct. 3: 44-40-7 Hagan)
• NM-Sen: Research & Polling: Tom Udall (D-inc): 50, Allen Weh (R): 43 (Sept.: 51-38 Udall)
• NM-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Udall: 51, Weh: 45
• SD-Sen: Marist: Mike Rounds (R): 43, Rick Weiland (D): 29, Larry Pressler (I): 16
• SD-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Round: 42, Weiland: 33, Pressler: 13
2:38 PM PT: Those Arkansas polls are certainly a lot better for Pryor than that Hendrix College poll last week that had him down 8, but they aren't particularly good. The ORA survey also has Democrat Mike Ross up 2 in the governor's race, which is almost impossible to believe given that just about every other pollster has found him trailing for months and months.
Also, since it's a Democratic internal, our Election Outlook model discounts it by 3 points, turning it into a Cotton +2 poll. Not good. It's a similar story in Colorado, where our model also transforms that Harstad survey into a +2 lead for Gardner, and in Georgia, where a tied race turns into +3 for Perdue. This calculation is based on our research into the historical differences in survey error between partisan and non-partisan polls, though, so it may unfairly discredit specific internals; overall, though, we're pretty confident that this is the proper approach.
Down in North Carolina, two polls find a tie race for the first time in forever; Hagan's held small but consistent leads for half a year. If this isn't SUSA being its notoriously swingy self (and Marist just being weird), then perhaps Hagan has finally fallen prey to the malaise that's afflicted Democrats across the nation. Fortunately, the early vote has gone well for Team Blue.
Not that Democrats don't already have enough to freak out about, but if anyone wants to get paranoid, there are those two New Mexico polls showing another Udall—Mark's cousin Tom—in a tightening race. But he's over 50; Vox Populi (Mary Cheney's firm) is not one you can trust; and there've been no outward signs of worry from any Democratic groups.
And finally, in South Dakota, two independent polls confirm that Rounds internal from last week. That prompted a furious Weiland to go rogue on Monday, accusing the DSCC of harming his campaign by parachuting in with negative ads attacking Rounds—attacks, Weiland says, that made him look like "a dirty campaigner." He has a point: Who listens to those disclaimers? But in a bit more of a reach, Weiland also claims that the DSCC's spots were "aimed at promoting Larry Pressler" and not Weiland." That's a pretty big accusation, and one he didn't offer any evidence for.
Weiland now says, in the campaign's final week, that he wants the DSCC to "get positive or get out." Really, though, national Democrats should have eschewed the obvious move of hitting Rounds and instead linked Pressler and conservative independent Gordon Howie together as two peas in a pod—or maybe as conservative and conservative-er. That would have turned potential Democratic voters off to Pressler, and it would have made hardcore right-wingers, who despise Rounds, aware of a purer alternative in Howie. Alas, it's probably too late to try anything else at this point.
2:53 PM PT: SC State House: This is kinda great: Because South Carolina's Republican state House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, just pleaded guilty to misusing campaign funds for personal use, state election officials have determined that he's not eligible as a candidate for re-election. That means any votes cast for him won't count, and since it's far too late to pick a replacement, it should mean an automatic victory for Democrat Mary Tinkler—unless Republicans pinch their noses shut very firmly and vote for the Green Party candidate. However, the 114th is a 60 percent Romney district, so this can only be a one-term rental, but still, fun!
3:02 PM PT: Self Funding: Several wealthy candidates across the nation have scoured beneath their couch cushions for some last-minute funds:
• KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell (R): $1.8 million
• KS-Sen: Greg Orman (I): $1.2 million
• IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner (R): $3 million
• CA-07: Doug Ose (R): $700,000
Wonder what Mitch is worried about ....
3:30 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Put Alaska First once again ties Republican Dan Sullivan to out-of-state interests.
• AR-Sen: Four ads from Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor (here, here, here, and here), and one from Republican Tom Cotton.
• CO-Sen: The DSCC features a doctor accusing Republican Cory Gardner of trying to outlaw abortion and lying about it. NextGen Climate and People For the American Way also run a joint Spanish ad for the Democrats.
• GA-Sen: Republican David Perdue and Ending Spending (here and here) continue to argue a vote for Democrat Michelle Nunn is a vote for Obama. The Ending Spending buy is for $1,314,000; this late in the game, that kind of money doesn't buy as many ads as it once did.
• IA-Sen: Republican Joni Ernst (here and here) highlights her military career, and features Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley vouching for her. On the other side, the DSCC continues to go after Enrst on Social Security, running the type of ad all Democratic groups should have been running since Ernst won the nomination in early June.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell (here and here).
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and the DSCC.
• NC-Sen: For the GOP, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce rolls out country music star Randy Owen, while the NRSC uses Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan's words against her to portray her as a partisan. Grow NC Strong also spends $464,000 for the Republicans.
• NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen goes positive, while the DSCC hits Republican Scott Brown on Medicare. For the GOP, B-PAC spends $125,000 while Ending Spending lays down $1,384,000.
• SD-Sen: Mayday PAC praises Democrat Rick Weiland as a champion of the middle class.
• AFRS: Pro-Democratic expenditures from Americans for Responsible Solutions (here and here).
• NextGen Climate: Pro-Democratic expenditures (here and here).
• AZ-Gov: Dueling ads from Republican Doug Ducey and Democrat Fred DuVal. Duval's spot stars longtime television personality Hugh Downs.
• CO-Gov: The RGA's spot stars Dennis O'Connor, whose daughter was murdered by Nathan Dunlap. O'Connor criticizes Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper for considering a reprieve for Dunlap's death sentence. O'Connor ends the ad by calling Hickenlooper "a coward who doesn’t deserve to be in office."
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley.
• FL-Gov: Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist are close in most polls, but you wouldn't know it from this Republican Party of Florida ad.
The spot features Crist being asked about donations he received from strip club owners, with Crist saying he won't return it. The commercial features text describing how one of those donations was from the owner of the "Cheetah," which was "investigated for drug dealing and illegal prostitution." The spot then describes how strip clubs are often used for sex trafficking. The whole spot feels pretty desperate.
Crist has two spots (here and here). The first attacks Scott for using taxpayer money to upgrade the governor's mansion at the same time he was cutting education. The second portrays Scott as an insensitive ally of the rich.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter.
• HI-Gov: The RGA recently released a poll showing Republican Duke Aiona only 3 points down, and it looks like they really still think they can pull him across the finish line. The RGA's new spot continues to go after Democrat David Ige on taxes, accusing him of wanting to hike taxes on pensions. Aiona's own spot touts his economic plan.
• ID-Gov: Wow, the RGA is still spending here this late in the race. The spot is a pretty generic attack on Democrat A.J. Balukoff, with the narrator arguing he's a liberal. Balukoff voted for Romeny, but that's a minor detail to the RGA.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn features a man named David Thompson, who moved his wife Carolyn Rose to a nursing home owned by Republican Bruce Rauner. Thompson describes how his wife was neglected in the home, with the narrator accusing the company's policies of playing a role in her death.
• ME-Gov: Democrat Mike Michaud features several voters who said they backed independent Eliot Cutler in 2010 declaring they're backing Michaud this time. Cutler came close to beating Republican Gov. Paul LePage that year but this time around he's been taking left-leaning voters Michaud needs.
• WI-Gov: Greater Wisconsin continues to go after Republican Scott Walker.
• AR-04: Republican Bruce Westerman.
• AZ-02: Americans for Responsible Solutions for Team Blue.
• CA-33: The heavily Democratic 33rd District hasn't been on many people's radar's, but a group called American Alliance is spending $245,000 for the GOP. Last week another group spent a comparable amount here. It's hard to see Democrats losing this 61-37 Obama seat even in the worst of years though.
• CA-36: Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz.
• CO-06: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman and Democrat Andrew Romanoff.
• FL-02: Republican Rep. Steve Southerland invokes the border crisis, terorrism, and Ebola, arguing he can protect the country and Obama and Democratic opponent Gwen Graham can't. Of course all these problems are happening while Southerland was in office, but the audience isn't supposed to think about that. The Congressional Leadership Fund also airs the trillionth ad linking Graham to Obamacare.
• IA-01: The NRCC is the latest group to get involved in a race Democrats thought they had control of until recently. The spot accuses Democrat Pat Murphy of being angry and a wasteful spender.
• IA-02: The DCCC recently started spending to protect Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, and the GOP smells a pickup opportunity here. The NRCC's spot hits Loebsack on wasteful spending, while voting to keep his congressional perks. It's not the most hard-hitting stuff, but this 56-43 Obama seat shouldn't be in danger at all.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel.
• IL-10: American Unity PAC for the GOP.
• IL-12: The New Prosperity Foundation spends another $140,000 for the GOP.
• MN-08: Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan and Republican Stewart Mills.
• NH-01: Mayday PAC ties Republican Frank Guinta to special interests. Guinta meanwhile defends his finances while arguing that Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter only cares about herself. The NRCC also highlights Guinta's career as mayor of Manchester, while suspiciously saying nothing about his time in the House.
• DCCC: Democratic expenditures.
3:43 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Polling:
• GA-Gov: PPP (D): Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48, Jason Carter (D) 45, Andrew Hunt (L) 4 (Oct. 5: 46-41 Deal)
3:57 PM PT: Polling:
• AZ-02: PMI/Red Racing Horses (R): Ron Barber (D-inc): 48, Martha McSally (R): 46
• CA-24: Probolsky Research (R): Chris Mitchum (R): 42, Lois Capps (D-inc): 41
• IA-01: Loras College: Rod Blum (R): 44, Pat Murphy (D): 42 (Sept.: 35-33 Murphy)
• IA-02: Loras College: Dave Loebsack (D-inc): 52, Marianette Miller-Meeks (R): 38 (Sept.: 49-32 Loebsack)
• IA-03: Loras College: David Young (R): 46, Staci Appel (D): 44 (Sept.: 40-34 Appel)
• IA-04: Loras College: Steve King (R-inc): 51, Jim Mowrer (D): 39 (Sept.: 47-36 King)
• ME-02: UNH: Bruce Poliquin (R): 41, Emily Cain (D): 40, Blaine Richardson (I): 8 (Sept.: 40-30-3 Poliquin)
• MT-AL: Gravis Marketing (R): Ryan Zinke (R): 53, John Lewis (D): 41
• NY-18: POS (R): Sean Maloney (D-inc): 42, Nan Hayworth (R): 42 (Oct. 13: 43-39 Maloney)
• For a very vulnerable incumbent like Barber, a 2-point lead in a Republican poll is actually a pretty welcome sign. What's crazy is that huge amounts of money have been spent on this race, but this is the first public poll since a Democratic internal in June (!) that had Barber up 8. Will McSally feel compelled to answer?
• Some other prognosticators have taken note of CA-24 lately and flipped the switch to "Likely D," even though Mitchum is a joke candidate who's raised less than $400,000 all cycle. That suggested some seekrit polls were floating around, perhaps including this one. But Probolsky doesn't have a good track record. Last cycle, they issued a whacked-out poll saying that Republican Gary DeLong was up 53-44 on Democrat Alan Lowenthal, right at the same time they released a separate poll putting Lowenthal ahead 44-41. Either way, they were badly wrong, since Lowenthal won by 13.
• These Iowa results sure are depressing for Democrats. Between the sour national mood and Bruce Braley's disastrous campaign at the top of the ticket, IA-03 has turned from a pickup opportunity into a seat where we're trailing, and IA-01 transmogrified from an easily hold to ... another seat where we're trailing. Note that Barack Obama carried both of these district. What a crapfest.
• That ME-02 poll is actually great news for Cain. Not only have the trendlines moved sharply in her direction, but this is the same UNH poll that, impossibly, had Paul LePage up 10 points in the governor's race. (See our ME-Gov bullet above.) Since there's really no way LePage has that kind of lead, it also means it's very likely that Poliquin trails, too. Of course, it's friggin' UNH, so they're not really worth wasting your time on anyway.
• Finally, Democrats have shown some concern in NY-18, with the DCCC and the House Majority PAC spending more than $1 million to attack Hayworth in October alone. (Mind you that doesn't go terribly far in the New York City media market.) Hayworth's had a hard time convincing her side to play ball, though, as a handful of fairly random groups (including the dreaded ophthalmologists) have spent under $200,000 during the same timeframe. Obviously this poll is designed as a plea for help, but Maloney the spending disparity suggests Republicans don't think they have a real opportunity here.
4:23 PM PT: • YouGov: YouGov, in partnership with the New York Times and CBS, released its fourth (and presumably final) batch of polls for all 50 states over the weekend, with numbers for both Senate and gubernatorial races. The charts below gather all the data from all four rounds of YouGov polling in one place and show the Democratic margin (negative numbers mean Republicans are leading), but be warned: Some of the margins of error are extremely high, as you can see in the right-hand column. For the most part, though, there hasn't been a lot of movement since September.