About two weeks ago, I posted a diary about how I thought that this mid-term election was an anti-incumbent election.
Now, I think that's about a third of it. The reason we have so many close races this late, no obvious and breaking wave, is that we may actually have three waves breaking against each other at the same time.
And - honestly - any one of these would suffice to move elections one way or the other, but combined they have managed to create uncertainty and an enormous number of close races for one campaign season.
The end of The Hobbit has the Battle of the 5 Armies (yes I'm a nerd & I'm sorry to be a spoiler if you are waiting for the 3rd movie, but you should just read the book anyway).
Campaign 2014 has the Battle of the 3 Waves.
Wave 1: The GOP super-charged because President Obama has a below average "6 year itch - 2 time incumbent fatigue" favorability rating. Translation - Obama-haters are extra motivated to come out and "Tea-Party Like It's 2010." By itself, that would be the Republican wave the talking heads have been going on about. This group is the target of candidates screaming about ISIL and Ebola, and those running against President Obama. Examples: Scott Brown (R-Carpetbagger Land), Mitch McConnell (R - Obstructionville), Paul LePage (R - Nurse Torturer)
Wave 2: The anti-incumbent voters. These folks are nominally independents, but can also be Republicans or Democrats. Motivated by their anger over gridlock in Washington or what they perceive as extreme behavior by their Governor. And sure enough - you can see this anti-incumbent wave at work in the numerous incumbent Governors (both parties) and Senators (also both parties) in trouble regardless of side of the aisle they it on. This would be the reason that both Dannel Malloy (D - CT) and Scott Walker (R - WI) are in trouble.
Wave 3: Activist progressive Democrats. Not in every state (or else we'd have a repeat of 2006 on our hands), but in many key states core Democratic groups are furious at the GOP (mostly the Tea Party wing of the GOP) for their anti-working person, anti-gay, anti-woman, and anti-African-American policies. You see this wave in the overwhelming turnout among African Americans in early voting in North Carolina and Georgia, for example.
Now - mix in a healthy dose of individual candidate antics (these can include loving your outsourcing-past, telling a lie in a debate that moves you to tears, getting caught on tape telling lawyers you hate farmers, not knowing the geography of your newly adopted state, or bring the pain because your opponent brought the fan) and you have the most unpredictable set of elections in my memory.
Will anyone of these groups prevail over the other 2 at the end of the night? We will have to wait and see!