One of my favorite activities in the aftermath of an election is to review polling trends leading up to the event. Usually, there are breaks one way or another as people decide, and in Arkansas's case, the break was done in late August. Let me explain-
http://www.factcheck.org/...
Does that link mean anything to you? Probably not. But take a look at this-
The ad begins with the image of an elderly woman, while the narrator says, “Arkansas seniors depend on Social Security and Medicare. It’s troubling that Senator Mark Pryor said we should overhaul Social Security and Medicare.”
The reference is to a Jan. 5, 2011, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette story that said Pryor was vague on what exactly he supported doing to control spending on these programs. The “overhaul” word was used by the reporter, in the lead of the article: “Despite calling it ‘political dynamite,’ Arkansas’ senior senator Mark Pryor said Tuesday that the country’s deep deficits and sputtering economy require overhauling Social Security and Medicare.”
The newspaper reported that Pryor “avoided saying what concrete steps he favored to rein in entitlement spending. He repeatedly said he liked many of the recommendations released by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. That presidentially appointed panel has urged raising the retirement age and lowering cost-of-living increases for retirees.”
So Arkansas has always been culturally conservative. This is nothing new. But for years yeller dawgs have voted for Social Security on Tuesday and asked for forgiveness on Sunday to send Dems to victory. But the key voter plank, seniors, have abandoned Democrats. THIS IS Obama's fault, and may be why he proves to be the most damaging Democrat to long term electoral growth in history.
Chained CPI, reduced cost of living benefits, all these putrid "compromise and bipartisan" agendas have eroded our base-our senior base! Seniors absolutely routed Democrats, in no small part due to the fact that through our own unforced errors they no longer trust us to protect the New Deal.
Now this ad, had say, Gore, or even Kerry been President, would not have worked so effectively. But remember, Obama is the guy who presented himself as "open to new ideas", even messing with the third rail of American politics. Now let's review some polling-
Here is a snapshot of the state of the race in the following days after the release of the Senior scare ad-
See the break? Now Cotton may have won anyway, but he won 61 percent of seniors! For comparison, let's look at John Kerry, who in losing the state by 10 in 2004, WON seniors by eight points.
Also, some have said that the baby boomer crop of seniors is less loyal to the FDR paradigm than the Greatest Generation. There is some truth to this, but let's look at Democrats who won and are at least still breathing-first, Jeff Merkley, Oregon Senator re-elected handily:
http://www.oregonlive.com/...
Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley on Thursday said he will introduce legislation calling for a higher cost-of-living increase for Social Security recipients, which would be paid for by a tax increase on those earning wages of more than $250,000 a year....
More this please. What are your plans for 2016, cutie?
Even Senator Mark Begich, in the still breathing category, is doing so likely because he aggressively made Social Security a focal point of his campaign. The lesson here is seniors vote, they pretty much always vote. You better not make them fear for their (Social) security. Maslow 101.
Bottom line, our next nominee must past the litmus test of protecting the New Deal, or more erosion in blue collar whites and seniors will be seen, and if they knock us down to 23 percent of the white vote, as with the odious Michelle Nunn, it won't matter if we start cloning minority voters, it won't be enough.