(Reminder via @armandodkos): no one should ever forget this awful Richard Cohen column about @StephenAtHome
http://t.co/... in 2006.
— @DemFromCT
Politico:
This time eight years ago, Barack Obama and his staff were in the final stages of preparing to launch a presidential campaign. So was pretty much everyone else. The midterms were done, the opposition party had ridden a wave to a wipe-out.
The political world was already looking past President George W. Bush. Obama was leading the charge.
Politico:
The pivot isn’t necessarily about embracing the Real Barack Obama (that’s always been a pretty elusive persona) or even about aspiring to the Clintonian ideal of a second-term president leveraging executive power into political muscle. It’s not a matter of superficially emulating a campaign, as he’s done fecklessly in the past, by hitting the road for another round of low-impact speeches or Steve Kroft sit-downs. It’s a campaign between Obama’s ears — a competitor rediscovering his love of competition, the refocusing of a sedentary, atrophied presidency through the lens of a dynamic campaign – and winning.
“He needs to run, to compete – or more to the point, he needs someone to run against,” a former top Obama adviser told me.
He’s got that now, in a Republican-controlled Capitol Hill. Obama, a political counterpuncher who often needs a slap in the face to wake up, got a gut-shot in November. The Democrats’ staggering loss in the midterms – like his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate against Mitt Romney in 2012 – seems to have jolted him to the realization that he’ll have to act boldly to preserve what he’d assumed was a settled legacy. (The Supreme Court’s decision to scrutinize the funding mechanism of the Affordable Care Act, in particular, has sent a shudder through the West Wing and provided an unexpected challenge from another hostile branch of government.)
Whiplash! Hilarious to watch media pundits shift their take on POTUS. Old CW (six weeks ago) Obama dead. New CW: Obama resurgent! Wow.
— @davidaxelrod
More politics and policy below the fold.
another good @ForecasterEnten piece highlighting differences between Jeb and Romney and their different GOP coalition
http://t.co/...
— @DemFromCT
Bloomberg:
The 50-year embargo just hasn't worked," Paul said. "If the goal is regime change, it sure doesn't seem to be working, and probably it punishes the people more than the regime because the regime can blame the embargo for hardship."
Paul could have left it at that–his position was consistent with his father's, with Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, and with most libertarians who considered the Cuba policy a spectacular failure. But a few hours later, Rubio appeared on Megan Kelly's Fox News show and was asked for his "thoughts on Senator Rand Paul's comments supporting the president."
"Like many people, he has no idea what he's talking about," snapped Rubio. "I would expect that people would understand that if they just took a moment to analyze that, they would realize that the embargo is not what's hurting the Cuban people. It's the lack of freedom and the lack of competent leaders."
Miami Herald:
The profile of those most likely to disapprove of Obama’s positions and more-normalized relations with Cuba: Republicans, those over 65 and those born in Cuba who emigrated to the U.S. before the 1980 Mariel boatlift crisis. After Mariel, immigrants from Cuba have tended to be considered economic immigrants, instead of political exiles.
“This poll shows there are two Cuban-American communities,” said Fernand Amandi, the Bendixen & Amandi pollster who conducted the survey.
“There is the older exile community that has dominated the discussion about Cuba policy for years,” Amandi said. “And there is the emergence of the younger generation, the Cuban-American community of the present and future.”
Because of the strong opposition from these more-traditional exile groups, centered in Miami, Obama’s new Cuba policy is viewed more unfavorably than favorably. When it comes to normalized relations or the spy swap, opposition outpaced support by a few percentage points that were within the poll’s 4.9 percentage-point margin of error.
Opposition to the embargo was also with[in] the error margin, meaning Cuban-Americans are basically split on these issues...
Florida Cuban Americans opposed the normalization 56-35 percent; those who live elsewhere supported it 61-32 percent. Those results are consistent with other polls that indicate Cuban-Americans in Florida are far more conservative than in other states, where they’re more likely to resemble more liberal-leaning non-Cuban Hispanics.
Overall, 44 percent said the embargo should not continue and 40 percent favored it. . Of registered voters, the poll showed 44 percent wanted the embargo kept and 42 percent wanted it discontinued.
Either way — whether it’s Cuban-Americans in general or voters in specific — Amandi said the numbers show how Cuban-American attitudes are changing.
“It makes crystal clear that Cuba policy and the embargo is not a third-rail issue with Cuban-American voters in the same way that support for Israel is thought to be for Jewish voters,” Amandi said.
Politico:
Jeb Bush got serious, Marco Rubio railed on a topic close to home and Rand Paul took yet another contrarian view.
Officially, the Republican 2016 presidential field is aways from being settled. Unofficially, this certainly felt like the week that the GOP primary was joined.
David Ignatius:
All of these actions have Republican members of Congress sputtering. But what are they going to do? Sue him? Actually, they’re already trying that over Obamacare — reinforcing the public’s impression that the GOP would rather criticize than govern.
What characterizes Obama’s recent moves is that they’re cautious but deliberate. He’s still a president who doesn’t like to take major risks, with the exception of covert actions to kill terrorists or free hostages, where he has been arguably more aggressive than any predecessor. He governs in minor chords, disdainful of the cymbal-crashing rhetoric of military intervention.
The real test of Obama’s approach is with Russia: Through the spring, as President Vladimir Putin grew ever more belligerent in Ukraine, Obama kept open what he liked to call the “offramp,” even as he added sanctions against Moscow and gathered a skittish European coalition to punish Russia. As critics wailed about U.S. passivity, administration officials noted that Russia was digging its own grave. Its economy was too weak to support Putin’s expansionism.
Now, it looks as if Obama may have been right that sanctions (reinforced by collapsing oil prices) would ultimately put Putin under severe pressure. Russia’s 19th-century-style putsch gave an illusion of strength, but 21st-century economic power is likely to have more lasting impact.
Leslie Savan writing on Stephen Colbert's character:
But Colbert bit most deeply into the attending Beltway journalists, who famously found him unfunny:
Over the last five years you people were so good—over tax cuts, WMD intelligence, the effect of global warming. We Americans didn’t want to know, and you had the courtesy not to try to find out. Those were good times, as far as we knew.
But, listen, let’s review the rules. Here’s how it works: the president makes decisions. He’s the Decider. The press secretary announces those decisions, and you people of the press type those decisions down. Make, announce, type. Just put them through a spell check and go home. Get to know your family again. Make love to your wife. Write that novel you’ve got kicking around in your head. You know, the one about the intrepid Washington reporter with the courage to stand up to the administration. You know—fiction!
Frontline:
Despite the imbalance, reform advocates made some significant gains this year, said
Laura Cutilletta, a senior attorney at the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, who analyzed the laws. She pointed to a major reform bill that passed in Massachusetts that would, among other things, establish an online portal that gun buyers and sellers would use to verify each other’s licenses.
“This was a new approach,” she said. “There’s been a lot of new ideas and new ways to approach this problem, so we expect to see an increase [in new reform legislation] next year.”
The change is due in part to new grassroots pressure from gun-control groups. In the past two years, they have strengthened and expanded local chapters of volunteers who lobby state lawmakers, march and sign petitions calling for reform. In the months after Newtown, gun-control advocates in Connecticut — many of them suburban moms — started turning up at legislative hearings and pressuring lawmakers in support of the state’s reform bill, which ultimately passed.
This year, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America — now a part of Everytown for Gun Safety — successfully lobbied seven major companies, including Target, Chipotle, Chili’s and Starbucks, to discourage gun owners from bringing their firearms into their stores and restaurants. They signed petitions, made phone calls and staged rallies to make it happen. The group is focusing on Kroger next.
Advocates also pushed for laws in six states that would prohibit people convicted of domestic violence from possessing firearms. California’s law included a provision that allows relatives to petition a court to remove a person’s firearm if they can show that they pose a threat to themselves or others.
By far, the gun control movement’s biggest victory this year was in Washington state, where reform supporters helped to put a measure to expand background checks for gun owners on the November ballot. Everytown said it spent more than $12 million and dispatched six full-time staff members to help get the measure passed. The measure won nearly 60 percent of the vote.