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8:26 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich will make a "major announcement" today at 5:00 PM ET. Unless he's completely trolling us, Schweich will announce whether or not he will run for governor in 2016.
8:55 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Great Mentioner: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to kick off a new series looking at all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
We begin in Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is going to be one of the GOP's top targets. Centennial State Republicans are energized by their victory over Mark Udall last year and several potential candidates are thinking about jumping in. Rep. Mike Coffman looks like he's at the top of the NRSC's wish list but he's far from the only one who could run: Check out our post for more.
11:29 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Wichita Mayor: Democratic Mayor Carl Brewer is leaving office this year, and we have a competitive race to succeed him. Filing closed for this non-partisan race on Tuesday, and 10 candidates are running. The primary will be held March 3, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to the April 7 general.
Right now, Democratic Councilor Lavonta Williams, Republican Councilor Jeff Longwell, and Republican businessman Sam Williams look like the frontrunners. Jennifer Winn is also running: The hemp activist was last seen taking 37 percent of the vote against Gov. Sam Brownback in last year's GOP primary, but it would be a surprise if she ended up in the mayor's office when all is said and done. Wichita is one of the more Democratic areas of Kansas but it's still pretty conservative for a big city, and either party could prevail here in April.
11:35 AM PT (David Jarman): Votes: Lawmakers probably don't spend much time worrying about their DW-Nominate scores (or other, less good 'objective' aggregators like National Journal), but when it's an organization keeping the score that also has the power to spend a lot of money in primaries and summon herds of flying monkeys to vote in primaries, they get a little more agitated. That was on display at a recent Republican Study Committee meeting, as reported by Politico.
Members of the RSC actually pushed back against Heritage Action's scoring, which has gotten so inflexible as to penalize against voting for must-haves, like last year's farm bill. Whether this actually leads to a break with Heritage (or Heritage dialing things down) remains to be seen, but it's still amusing to see members of the GOP's right flank attacking Heritage for setting impossible purity standards. WaPo's Aaron Blake adds some context by going into more detail about just how pure Heritage's scores are, maybe most famously that the House's poster boy for austerity, Paul Ryan, still gets only a 58 according to their inflated standards.
12:02 PM PT: NY-13: Now that Assembly Democrats have finally forced Speaker Sheldon Silver to step aside in the wake of corruption charges, several names are coming forward as candidates to replace him. One is Harlem Assemblyman Keith Wright, who just confirmed that he'll seek Silver's post.
Wright is also chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party and was a potential candidate to succeed Rep. Charlie Rangel, assuming Rangel follows through on his promise to retire at the end of this term. Obviously if Wright becomes speaker, that takes him out of the running for Rangel's seat, but if he fails in his quest, that could make him more likely to pursue a congressional run. (It's also worth noting that because New York insanely holds separate federal and state primaries, Wright could lose a bid for Congress but still run in the primary to keep his own seat in the legislature.)
12:02 PM PT (David Jarman): Polarization: Usually when you see polarization discussed, it's from the poli sci perspective, but Thomas Edsall's fascinating new column gives an overview of recent research on the topic from the 'softer' social sciences, social psychology and sociology. The common thread among these studies is one that we try and make regularly at Daily Kos Elections: that voting decisions are usually made along 'tribal' lines -- needing to belong to the right team that reflects your place in the world -- than based on rational decisions about policy.
Old cues that used to divide us by political party, like region, religion, or profession, just don't have the same impact any more; the economy is more contingent now, people increasingly sort geographically based on worldview rather than for economic reasons, and geography isn't even that important anyway, given that people increasingly take their cues from social media and other highly segmented mass media channels. And increasingly, scientists are realizing that worldview may in fact be more nature than nurture; some of the studies that Edsall discusses show that liberal and conservative brains simply work differently.
12:10 PM PT (David Jarman): Deaths: John T. Myers, who was a Republican U.S. House member from Indiana from 1966 to 1996, died Tuesday at age 87. Usually, when a Congressman serves for 30 years, there's something remarkable about him that gets recounted: major legislation, a committee that he chaired, well-known controversial stands, or if nothing else, a scandal or other ignominious end. There doesn't seem to be anything like that for Myers, who provided three decades of reliable conservative votes from the back bench; his very unremarkableness seems to be the most remarkable thing about him.
12:27 PM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-Sen: Not so great news... for John McCain! Tea party-scented Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert have both been mulling challenging McCain in the Republican primary in the likely event that he seeks another term. However, if the senator had any hope that they would both run and split the anti-McCain vote, he can think again. The Hill tells us that Salmon and Schweikert have decided that only one of them will go for a promotion.
The two are looking over polling data and thinking over their options, and it looks likely that one of them will make the jump. Right now, it appears that Salmon is the more interested of the two in a Senate run. Salmon has far more money available than Schweikert, which would allow him to hit the ground running; Salmon also was the GOP gubernatorial nominee back in 2002, so there's no doubt that he has ambition. Both Salmon and Schweikert's seats are safely red, so House Democrats won't benefit if either one leaves.
12:39 PM PT (Jeff Singer): 2015: This year will bring us three gubernatorial races, plenty of big-city mayoral races, and the inevitable congressional special election or two. To help keep track of all the competitive races, we've introducing out 2015 election calendar. You can check out our sheet directly here with information about poll closing times included. This calendar will be updated throughout the year as new races come onto the radar.
12:59 PM PT (Jeff Singer): OH-Sen: Well, maybe Rep. Tim Ryan really is serious about running for Senate this time. Ryan has been one of the more anti-abortion members of the Democratic caucus for a while, and he's one of only 12 remaining members to vote for the Stupak Amendment. Ryan's position never caused him any trouble at home, with him easily winning re-nomination each cycle, but it could definitely be a liability in a statewide Democratic primary.
So it's interesting that Ryan just published an editorial explaining why he's moved to the left on abortion, explaining "I have come to believe that we must trust women and families — not politicians — to make the best decision for their lives." Ryan says this piece has nothing to do with his political ambitions but it's definitely very interesting timing. Ryan recently said that he'll decide if he'll challenge Republican Sen. Rob Portman "in the next month," so we won't need to read the tea leaves for much longer.
1:50 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Gov: It's that magical time in the season when candidates want donors and activists to know that they're running, but won't officially announce it. Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper has long been viewed as likely to challenge Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016 and he pretty much removed any ambiguity on Tuesday.
Cooper told WNCN that he's "certainly planning" to run says it's "too early" to announce. Whatever dude, just don't expect us to care when you finally decide it's the exact right time to reveal what we already know. Right now no notable Democrats (officially declared or otherwise) are challenging Cooper. Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker launched a statewide listening tour last March in preparation for a likely run, but he's been pretty quiet since then.
2:54 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: On Wednesday, Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich announced that he would run for governor in 2016's open-seat race. Schweich, who served as chief-of-staff to former U.N. Ambassador (and former Missouri senator) John Danforth and as a high-ranking official in George W. Bush's State Department, has been flirting with a run for higher office for a while. Schweich considering campaigns for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012, as well as a gubernatorial run in 2012. Schweich is finally going for a promotion this time, and if he fails he'll still be auditor for at least another two years.
Schweich will take on former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway in the primary. Both of them start out with comparable warchests but Hanaway is largely being financed by one man, conservative mega-donor Rex Sinquefield. The Show Me State has no contribution limits so Sinquefield can throw as much cash in Hanaway's direction as he feels. Schweich is well-connected though, and he should have the resources he needs.
Schweich and Hanaway may not have the primary field to themselves. Businessman and 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner may jump in, and he'll also have the money to compete here. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer also talked about running back in May, though he hasn't said much publicly about his 2016 plans since then. Former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens is also a potential candidate, but he'll need a lot to go right for him to have a shot. We'll see if Schweich's announcement leads any of these possible contenders, or anyone else privately mulling a bid, to make a decision any sooner.
The winner of the Republican primary is likely to take on Attorney General Chris Koster, who so far has a very easy path to the Democratic nomination. Missouri has become increasingly hostile to national Democrats in the last few cycles but Team Blue still holds most statewide offices; we should be in for quite a race.
2:59 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris continues to roll out endorsement after endorsement as she tries to deter other candidates from running. San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee is the latest prominent politician to back Harris, who also comes from SF.
3:16 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Senate: Are you tired of dealing with dozens of senators who just won't say anything about their re-election plans? Apparently, so is the Roll Call team: They just surveyed every senator up in 2016 to find out their intentions. Most of them said that they were "planning to run," which isn't a definite yes but is a lot better than nothing.
A few members were a little more ambiguous. Indiana Republican Dan Coats admitted he hadn't made a decision, but is preparing in any case. North Dakota Republican John Hoeven stated that he expects to run "at this point." South Dakota Republican John Thune also said that "people should assume that," he's in, though he won't be deciding until later in the year. Maryland Democrat Barbara Mikulski did not respond, but her colleague Ben Cardin is convinced she'll seek another term.
Some members did make it very clear that they're running again though. The most notable is Alabama's Richard Shelby, who at 80 was the subject of the occasional retirement rumor. But Shelby enthusiastically told Roll Call “I’m in!” Shelby has a massive $18 million warchest that will probably deter any serious primary or general election foes, so this is probably the last we'll hear about his race.
3:53 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-13: Well that was fast. Keith Wright has backed another candidate for speaker, freeing him up to run for NY-13.
3:59 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-13: And it's not just any other candidate Wright is backing: Assemblyman Carl Heastie is the chair of the Bronx Democratic Party. A portion of the Bronx is in the 13th District and Heastie's support could help Wright in the borough.