Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel
Leading Off:
• Chicago Mayor: Our long Windy City polling drought is really over! On behalf of the Chicago Tribune, APC Research surveys the Feb. 24 non-partisan primary and finds incumbent Mayor Rahm Emanuel ahead, but a bit far from the majority he needs to avert an April runoff. Rahm leads Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia 42-18; Alderman Bob Fioretti takes 10, with businessman Willie Wilson at 7. Two recent polls (one of them an internal for a group hostile to the mayor) also showed Rahm far ahead but not close to 50 percent.
Rahm has been bombarding the airwaves with positive ads, and it seems to have helped him restore his popularity. APC gives him a 43-35 approval rating, a huge turnaround from the 29-46 score they gave him in August. Garcia and Fioretti are not nearly as well known, sporting 34-6 and 25-8 favorable ratings respectively. The problem for Rahm's opponents is that they don't have anywhere near the type of money the mayor has, and no deep-pocketed groups have gotten involved. If Rahm keeps monopolizing the airwaves, the once-unpopular incumbent can very well walk away with victory next month.
Senate:
• FL-Sen, 18: Whether Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy runs for the U.S. Senate next year or for re-election, there's no question that he'll have money to burn. The congressman just announced that he hauled in $533,000 in the fourth quarter of 2014, a mind-blowing sum for what's usually a dry fundraising quarter. If Murphy tries to move to the upper chamber, he can transfer this money from his House account.
• IN-Sen: The National Journal has a great article about how Republican senators are hoping to defer would-be primary challengers. It notes that while people like Missouri's Roy Blunt, Arkansas' John Boozman, and Kansas' Jerry Moran haven't drawn any real intra-party or Democratic opponents, none of them are taking any chances. No one wants to turn into former Indiana Sen. Richard Luger, who lost touch with the base and wasn't at all prepared when Richard Mourdock challenged him. As a result, most Republican senators are raising money and staying in contact with the party-rank-and-file.
That is, with the exception of Lugar's former colleague, Sen. Dan Coats. Coats recently told Roll Call that he's undecided about re-election but is preparing a campaign anyway, but some GOP operatives find his preparations lacking. National Journal notes that he only has $752,000 on hand, not a very impressive sum at all. The good news for Coats is that no notable Republicans or Democrats have made any noise about opposing him. But if Coats does run again and doesn't pick up the pace, it's quite possible that some ambitious politician will smell weakness and decide to take on the senator.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: The Republican gubernatorial field is set, and GOP pollster Remington Research Group has wasted no time taking a look at the May 19 primary. Remington, who says they have no client here, finds that things start very tight here. State Agriculture Commissioner James Comer begins with a 22-19 lead over tea partying businessman Matt Bevin; former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner is just behind at 18. Former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott is dead last with 5. The winner will take on Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who faces minimal primary opposition.
The Kentucky Democratic Party also released a Garin-Hart-Yang poll conducted in mid-December to argue that Conway is in strong shape going into November. The survey shows Conway leading Comer 48-36, and beating Heiner 51-30; Bevin and Scott were apparently not tested. The only other recent general election poll we've seen comes from Gravis Marking and it showed quite a different result: They had Conway only ahead of Comer 40-37, and leading Heiner 43-34. It seems too good to be true for Conway to be this close to 50 percent against his toughest foe in such a red state like Garin-Hart-Yang says, but Gravis isn't exactly a paragon of accuracy. Hopefully we'll see some more primary and general numbers here sooner rather than later.
House:
• GA-09, MN-02, PA-09: Every cycle, plenty of members of Congress draw primary challenges. Most of these candidates turn out to be duds but as Dave Brat proved last year, sometimes you can't tell the duds from the credible contenders until the votes are in. Over at Politico, Alex Isenstadt talks about some of the Republican representatives and senators who are already attracting intra-party opposition.
We've already mentioned some of these before, but a few races are new. Over in Georgia's 9th District, radio host Al Gainey started making noises about challenging Rep. Doug Collins after the congressman backed John Boehner for speaker. Gainey actually has held elected office in the past, serving as a Hall County commissioner from 1997 to 2001. This seat, which includes the northeast edge of the state, is solidly red, with Romney taking took 78 percent here.
In central Pennsylvania's 9th District, Rep. Bill Shuster may face a rematch with Art Halvorson and Travis Schooley, both of whom challenged him in 2014. Last year Shuster beat Halvorson 52-35, with Schooley taking 13. If both run again, Shuster should be able to win with at least a plurality. But if the incumbent is stuck in a one-on-one race against the wealthy Halvorson, things could get exciting. This district, which takes up much of rural south central Pennsylvania as well as Altoona, is also safely red at 63 percent Romney.
Isenstadt also notes that in Minnesota's 2nd District, engineer David Gerson has already announced that he will challenge Rep. John Kline for the third time. MN-02 is much more competitive than the other two seats: Obama narrowly carried this suburban Twin Cities seat. Kline also just earned a Democratic foe in former St. Jude Medical executive Angela Craig, though she is an untested candidate. But Democrats shouldn't get too excited about the possibility of Gerson bloodying up Kline. In 2012 Gerson was defeated by an 85-15 margin in the primary; in 2014 he lost on the first ballot of the district convention. Gerson's fundraising was also never anything to write home about. Minnesota's party conventions can be unpredictable, but it doesn't sound like Kline has much too worry about at this point.
• IL-10: National Democrats have made it no secret that they're trying to recruit former Rep. Brad Schneider for another match against Republican Rep. Bob Dold(!). Schneider himself seems pretty unsure about the idea; he recently admitted that he "loved the job, but hated the campaign." Still, Schneider is meeting with the DCCC, so he's at least taking the idea of a comeback seriously.
This ancestrally Republican seat, which includes many of Chicago's affluent northern suburbs, doesn't have a great Democratic bench, but another local politician is thinking about a run. Roll Call's Emily Cahn reports that Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rodkin Rotering could run—and she may not defer to Schneider. Obama won this district by a 58-41 margin, but it's no gimme for Team Blue even with presidential year turnout. Dold himself has done a good job portraying himself as the type of moderate Republican that voters here like, and he won't lack the money he needs to win.
• LA-01: Well this would be... interesting. Back in December, Republican Rep. Steve Scalise earned some ugly headlines when it emerged that he had given a speech back in 2002 to a group run by former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke. Scalise claimed he didn't know the organization had anything to do with the infamous neo-Nazi, and he denounced all that Duke stands for. Scalise managed to hang on as House majority whip, but an enraged Duke is now talking about challenging the incumbent in this conservative suburban New Orleans seat.
Duke may not be bluffing about seeking office here. He won a local state House seat as a Republican in 1989, and proceeded to run for U.S. Senate, governor, and U.S. House. As recently as 1999, Duke came close to making the runoff for the old version of this district. But he would face very long odds if he tried again. Back in the 2004 open-seat race here, Duke's longtime ally Roy Anderson ran (as a Democrat!) and could only muster up 7 percent of the vote.
Duke himself isn't exactly beloved either: A February 2013 PPP poll gave him a 9-76 unfavorable rating statewide. It's also worth noting that in the faithful 1991 gubernatorial race between Duke and Democrat Edwin Edwards, Duke did poorly in the areas that make up the 1st District (he even lost the very conservative St. Tammany Parish, an impressive feat for a Republican). And if Duke does take on Scalise, he can't count on a low-turnout primary carrying him to victory. In Louisiana, all the candidates will run together in November during the high-turnout presidential contest. In theory, Duke could keep Scalise from taking a majority and force him into a December runoff, but don't hold your breath.
Other Races:
• CA Ballot: Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is barred from seeking another term, but he has almost $24 million sitting in his campaign account. The money isn't going to go to waste: Brown can spend it in support or opposition to ballot measures and state constitutional amendments, something he's already promised to do. In 2014 Brown spent $5.2 million in support of a water bond and money for the rainy-day fund, with only $800,000 going to his actual re-election campaign, so this is nothing new for the governor. In the Golden State, plenty of policy is decided directly at the ballot rather than by the legislature, so Brown's ability to push his agenda will depend on these referendums.
And Brown will have more to get involved with than ever. As we've noted before, the number of valid signatures needed to get a measure or amendment on the ballot is decided by the number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Because turnout was low in 2014, only 325,000 signatures are needed for ballot measures for the next four years; after 2010 the magic number was 504,000. The signature requirement for amendments has also dropped, going from 808,000 to 520,000. Expect to see Brown spending quite a bit or money and energy on these referendums during the final four years of his tenure.
• Philadelphia Mayor: Councilor Jim Kenney hasn't announced a mayoral campaign yet (though he did resign in order to run, so he's past the point of no return). But he's already scored at least one key labor endorsement from the 13,000 member local district of the National Union of Hospital and Health Care Employees.
Grab Bag:
• Site News: Daily Kos has launched a new feature called "Daily Kos Classics" to help call attention to older but still excellent posts. The best will get featured in the "Daily Kos Recommended" email that goes out to hundreds of thousands of readers each day. What's more, when an old diary is posted to the Classics group, comments on it will be re-opened, allowing new discussions to thrive. So if you have any favorite posts—whether personal or politics, your own or written by others—please nominate them in comments.
• WATN: Democratic state Treasurer Rob McCord entered the 2014 gubernatorial contest as a formidable primary candidate, but he ended up taking only 17 percent in the primary. It's not too surprising that after all that McCord is quitting politics, though he's leaving a lot sooner than expected and not with his head held high.
On Thursday, McCord announced that he would resign as state treasurer. McCord did not provide a reason but it quickly became clear why he's bailing: He's reportedly under federal investigation over the alleged theft of funds. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf (who beat McCord in the primary) will select his replacement, who will need to be confirmed by the Republican state Senate. This seat will next be up in 2016.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.