"Oh right, 2016. I forgot about that."
The lunatic fringe of the Republican House caucus was bound to give the Senate majority migraines, but this week we got a glimpse of just how noxious its right-wing bent will prove for GOP senators seeking re-election in 2016.
Nothing demonstrated this better than the warp-speed transformation of Republican Sen. Mark Kirk's position on the bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security. House Republicans insisted on adding a series of anti-immigrant riders to the bill that, quite frankly, add up to terrible politics, especially in swing states like Illinois. That's why the Senate has thrice failed to advance the House bill, making a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security at the end of this month a distinct possibility.
Yet on Tuesday, Sen. Kirk boasted to reporters, "I think Democrats mistakenly feel a shutdown is a scenario which advantages them.” He also pugnaciously mused about what Republicans should do in the event of a "successful attack" during a DHS shutdown.
"[W]e should build a number of coffins outside each Democratic office and say, ‘You are responsible for these dead Americans,’” Kirk said Tuesday.
Turns out that was the same day Public Policy Polling released a
swing state survey revealing some very bad news for Mr. Kirk. His job approval ratings among Illinois voters weren't so hot—just 34 percent. Also, support for tying DHS funding to the anti-immigrant riders was underwater, with more people opposing the Republican position (51 percent) than supporting it (38 percent).
Additionally, the president's immigration initiatives that the House bill seeks to quash are almost twice as popular as Mr. Kirk himself, with 62 percent of his constituents supporting Obama's policies of providing deportation relief to undocumented parents of U.S. citizen children. But here was the kicker: 47 percent of voters said Kirk's vote to repeal that policy made them "less likely" to vote for him (only 25 percent said it made them "more likely" to do so).
How about that little reality check for a change of heart. Head below the fold to get look at Sen. Kirk's comments 24 hours later.
Here's Sen. Kirk on Wednesday.
"I generally agree with the Democratic position here. I think we should have never fought this battle on DHS funding," the Illinois senator said in the Capitol. "I think it's the wrong battle for us at the wrong time."
Does the GOP share blame for the impasse over DHS?
"It does," Kirk said. "Had I been consulted, which I wasn't, I don't think we should have ever attached these issues to DHS funding. I always thought the burden of being in the majority is the burden of governing."
Scratch that coffin order—Sen. Kirk is going to start caucusing with the Democrats effective immediately.
All kidding aside, Kirk's retreat is real-world evidence that Senate Republicans seeking re-election in 2016 are already getting squeezed by House GOP policies.
Three other Republican senators included in that PPP poll were Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. The numbers were quite similar for all four swing state senators, both in terms of their approval ratings hovering in the 30s and constituent attitudes toward Obama's immigration policies and GOP tactics on DHS funding.
Kirk's newfound appreciation for Democrats this week will provide a marker for watching how these senators fare with voters as the months move along. The counterpoint to Kirk is Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, who announced this month: "I will never vote with my re-election in mind."
It's an ethic he appears to be sticking with despite his constituents' wishes. Johnson actually chairs the Senate's Homeland Security committee, and has minced no words over his commitment to defunding Obama's immigration actions—even at the expense of shutting down the very department his committee oversees.
“Even in the last government shut down only 13.6% of DHS employees were furloughed,” Johnson said. “So the national security aspects, the aspects of the department that keeps America safe, are continuing to function no matter what happens in this very dysfunctional place.”
That was a few weeks ago. This week, at least, he feigned interest in keeping DHS open.
"Republicans didn't pick this fight. It was President Obama with his unilateral actions," he said. "We all want to see (the department) funded. We obviously don't want to see President Obama's executive actions funded."
Johnson's actually in slightly worse shape than Kirk in the poll, with more Wisconsinites disapproving of his work (40 percent) than approving of it (36 percent). His constituents also showed the least support for tying Homeland Security funding to immigration, with just 33 percent approving of the tactic while 54 percent opposed it.
The other GOP senators who will be trying to survive House-inflicted wounds in 2016 are Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Marco Rubio of Florida.
But the swing state senators, for now, provide the best look at where the Senate majority is heading in 2016, if not the electorate overall.