Obamacare enrollments from 2015 are, at the moment, an unknown quantity because 46 states have extended the February 15 deadline. But going into a somewhat chaotic last weekend of sign-ups, there were
more than 10 million enrollments, beating the Department of Health and Human Services's prediction of 9.1 million, but falling short of the Congressional Budget Office's 12 million projection. But there's still room to reach that, depending on what happens in the next few weeks of extended enrollment.
As of now, only Hawaii, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Vermont actually closed down enrollments on deadline. That makes knowing how many enrollments there are for 2015 guesswork, at least for the next few weeks. Some of the new deadlines are a week out, some two, and in the case of Washington state, a few months. But there are well-informed guesses, and the best place to go for that is Charles Gaba's ACASignups.net. His prediction, based on the trends of the last few weeks: "roughly 12.43 million by the end of February."
Among the unknowns in those final numbers are some big questions. If the Supreme Court rules against the government and strikes down federal tax credits for everyone in the federal exchange, it could collapse and by the end of the year have just a relative handful of enrollees. There's also the possibility that a few hundred thousand will be dropped off the rolls because they haven't proven their legal residence. There's going to be the regular flux of people who gain coverage in some other way, and drop these plans, or who end up just not paying their premiums for whatever reason and are dropped.
There's also a distinct possibility that the government will follow Washington state's lead, and create a "tax season" special enrollment period to dovetail with the tax filing deadline of April 15. There are still many, many uninsured people who aren't aware of the just-passed deadline, who aren't aware that they could receive tax credits to help them buy insurance, and aren't aware of the penalty for not buying it. Much of that will become clear to them when they start preparing to file their taxes and opening up a special enrollment for them would just make good sense.