Note: While I understand that it's related, I'm going to ask everyone who comments to not turn this into a discussion on the Democratic primary. Thanks.
While I don't find myself especially intimidated by any of the Republican Presidential candidates this cycle, I do find myself seeing one of them as a cut above the rest: Scott Walker. What is it I see about him that worries me, even just a little? Let's take a look at recent history first.
One thing that Democrats have gotten really good at over the years is portraying our opponents as out-of-touch elitists. In the last six presidential elections (four of which we've won, one of which we "lost" and one of which we lost narrowly), we have always been able to portray the Republican nominee in this way, with the exception of our one loss in 2004, where the Bush team stole our playbook and did the same to John Kerry. It was easy in 1992 and 2012, and we still managed to get it done in 1996, 2000 and 2008. Unfortunately, Scott Walker would take that option away from us. Jump below the fold to see why.
The vast majority of voters have no idea who Scott Walker is (yet), and won't if he loses the Republican primary. But if he does prevail, one thing is going to jump out at people immediately: his complete and utter averageness. Let's forget his policies for a minute and just take a look at the man's image:
*His "a few extra pounds" build
*His goofy smile
*His bald spot
*His tendency to be photographed without a suit jacket
He's basically a character from The Office. Think about it for a second and you can see him there. He just comes across as some dude who happens to be Governor now. A boring slice of untoasted white bread. The chocolate part of the Oreo. Shredded Wheat. For the last six years, our President has been Lucky Charms (just the marshmellows). Your average, unthinking voter, most of whom are Shredded Wheat themselves, are going to eat this right up if he continues to play himself correctly.
Even his name has average American written all over it. Scott Walker. Three simple syllables, an exceedingly common first and last name. A modern name, not like an old, haughty George or Abraham. Not a too-new Aiden or hipster throwback like Noah. Not painfully generic like Bob or Mike. Just plain average: Scott Walker. Even his middle initial, K, is perfectly average. Not an exotic vowel, or a mysterious Q or X. Just K (I guessed before writing this diary that the K stood for Kevin; I was right).
Let's not forget how average of a state Walker hails from. He's not from the elitist coasts, or the racist, backwards South. He's not from the oddball Mountain-Western states where people wear the weirdest ties and talk about mountains. He's from the Midwest, the most average region in the country. Even within the Midwest, he's from an average, all-American state. Not classically corrupt Illinois, or all important swing state Ohio. Not those flyover states where no one lives. Just Wisconsin. Football, cheese and white folks (emphasis on folks). The most average of states. Scott Walker? Oh, you know, he's just from Wisconsin.
What I'm getting at (not sure if it's clear enough) is that we are not going to be able to use the same playbook against this man that's been so successful for decades. He completely plays against his party's type. And I doubt his shady connections to the Kochs are going to resonate; people just don't seem to care about that kind of thing, no matter how blatant.
That said, there's actually one thing about Walker I'm really not worried about (electorally, at least), and that is his Koch connections. I'm not one bit worried about money in 2016 as far as the Presidential election goes. Both sides, no matter who the nominees are, will raise enough money and have enough spent on their behalf to hit the point of diminished returns. Both will approach $1 billion no matter what.
I did say, of course, that I'm not overly worried about Walker, or any Republican. First and foremost, the "blue wall" of electoral votes is simply higher than the "red wall", which gives us more paths to victory no matter what. Walker may also flame out on the national stage, and risks becoming the "no comment" candidate, playing it so utterly safe that only the Republican base will have a positive impression of him. He could also be another Christie waiting to happen with all of his scandals in Wisconsin. We'll see. But as of now, I see him as their top choice.