First Woo-hoo! Were not frying the planet as quickly most Climate Models thought we would.
We still have some time, to change our carbon-climbing ways ... we still have time to repay our planetary debt.
Global Warming Has Paused But This Slowdown Is Not The Reason For Celebration
Tech & Sci, consolidatetimes.com -- March 1, 2015
Global warming appears to have paused since the turn of the millennium, however climatologists think this slowdown is not the reason for celebration.
The Pacific Ocean is cooling, which could be balancing some of the warming caused by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the environment, scientists say.
El Niño cycles in the Pacific Ocean warm the water, and the last of these cycles occurred somewhere around 1997 and 1998. Since that time, the world’s biggest ocean has shown a cool phase. On the other hand, these conditions won’t last, and once the cycle upturns its trend, global warming will once again instigate to heat the planet, scientists note.
[...]
Ugh! And there's the Bad News: this 'pause' in Global Warming is decidedly short-lived. So says one highly respected climate expert ...
A cause for pause? Scientists offer reasons for global warming 'hiatus'
by Monte Morin, latimes.com -- February 26, 2015
[...]
In a paper published Thursday in the journal Science, climate researchers argue that this slowdown is the result of natural and decades-long variations in sea water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
These decadal oscillations, or swings, in sea temperature are tied to changes in ocean currents and wind patterns, according to researchers, and will play out for years before reversing themselves. Currently, the Pacific Ocean is in a cooling state and therefore masking the effects of human-caused global warming, according to the study authors.
It is not a condition that will last, they argue.
"In the next decade we will likely begin to see the flip side -- instead of slowing global warming, this internal oscillation will likely add to global warming," said Michael Mann, a study coauthor and climatologist at Penn State [and who helped established the well-known "hockey stick graph"].
[...]
Funny how people have so much trouble,
thinking on Decadal time-scales. The planet does it all the time.
And funny that, when we look at our own individual lives in "the long run" -- Decades is usually the bar, with which we measure.
So why can't we take that "long view" perspective -- on our collective consumption of those power-packed "fossil fuels"? (aka "living on borrow time".)
Alas! Some things are just "Inevitable." That is the way of the world, and of our lives.
And upon hearing that -- that I-word -- far too many people throw up their hands (figuratively) and sigh: "Why bother?" (you know, 'foregone conclusion', and all.)
While others strive to understand, and educate, and provide the impetus to act ...
Pacific trade winds stall global surface warming
phys.org -- Feb 09, 2014
[...]
Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.
New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface.
[...]
"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal -- as it inevitably will -- our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."
[...]
[ {...} The mean and anomalous circulation in the Pacific Ocean is shown by bold and thin arrows, respectively, indicating an overall acceleration of the Pacific Ocean shallow overturning cells, the equatorial surface currents and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). The accelerated atmospheric circulation in the Pacific is indicated by the dashed arrows; including the Walker cell (black dashed) and the Hadley cell (red dashed; Northern Hemisphere only). Anomalously high SLP in the North Pacific is indicated by the symbol "H." An equivalent accelerated Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere is omitted for clarity. Credit: Nature Climate Change.]
larger -- [Image Source: The Walker Cell -- Southwest Climate Change Network]
Here is a NOAA animation of the "9 degrees above average" waters in the western Pacific.
Here is a "sectional view" view, of all the above average warm water, piling up in in the western Pacific. Out of sight, out of mind.
What that new study is saying roughly speaking, is that at some point the equatorial Trade Winds will "switch off" -- as they have always done in the past. And when the PDO cycle [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] changes its decade-long M.O. -- all that global-caching of the last 15 years of Global Warming (via the these deep waters), will start "belching out" into the climate system
-- like some planetary reminder -- of the 'oblivious guest' that has long over-stayed their house-crashing welcome.
It's not their problem. It never is.
That's for the next house-guests to figure out. "It must suck to be them."
[OK that "house-guest" stuff is NOT found in the new scientific study. It is just this "Debbie-downers" perspective. Excuse please, if they give offense. Sorry to have "bothered you" with the "bad news." Party on people. Before the next decade turns its "inevitable" planetary page.]
Why bother? ... well maybe because "It's our watch, now" ... our turn to be the "good stewards" ... our responsibility to leave this "time-share" -- better than we found it.
Maybe because it is OUR unique task, to STOP 'trashing the place' in the first place.