Dan Coats
In an unsurprising move, Republican Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana
announced on Tuesday that he'd wind down his second tour of duty in the Senate after just a single term, citing his age. Coats, a creature of the establishment who had previously served from 1989 to 1999 (taking Dan Quayle's seat!), had to be lured out of a cushy retirement as a lobbyist to give the GOP a top-tier candidate to take on Sen. Evan Bayh in 2010. Coats relented, and to everyone's great surprise, Bayh (who in fact had succeeded Coats) announced his stunning retirement just days later.
Now the two may swap spots yet again. Just last week, Bayh refused to rule out a comeback bid, and he'd make a potent candidate if he decided to get back in the game. He's still sitting on a $10 million war chest, has universal name recognition thanks to his service both in the Senate and as governor, and possesses a good chunk of crossover appeal—something any Democrat needs to get elected statewide in Indiana.
Of course, Bayh is no favorite of progressives, and many of his fellow Indiana Democrats were cheesed off at his unexpected departure in 2010, a move that allowed his seat to fall into Republican hands. On the flipside, a Bayh return would instantly put this contest in play, and that would heal a lot of wounds. It would also delight the DSCC, which is running a spread offense as it seeks the four pickups (or five, depending on the presidential outcome) Democrats need to retake the Senate.
Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to play host to an intense, and very possibly bitter, primary of their own. When Coats last returned to the playing field in 2010, he only won the GOP primary with an underwhelming 39 percent of the vote as two outsider candidates split the anti-establishment vote. The runner-up, now-Rep. Marlin Stutzman, has reportedly already been looking at a bid, and it's fair to say that all seven of Indiana's Republican representatives are potential candidates, too.
That could mean a replay of the Coats primary, with someone like Rep. Todd Young or Rep. Todd Rokita playing the role of the insider to another tea-fueled Stutzman insurgency—only this time, Stutzman could very well win. That might not make a huge difference to Bayh, were he to run, as he's capable of beating any Republican. But should Democrats have to rely on an alternative (say, ex-Rep. Baron Hill), having someone like Stutzman win the GOP nomination would give Team Blue an opening where otherwise they likely would not have one.
Indiana remains a very red state, though, and if Bayh remains on the sidelines, Republicans will be decisively favored. But factor in a presidential year (remember, Barack Obama actually carried the Hoosier State in 2008) and the possibility of a draining GOP nomination battle and who knows what might happen? As always, we'll be watching all developments closely at Daily Kos Elections.