Rand Paul can go fuck himself.
While he's busy giving himself crabs, let's look at a state that's famous for a different kind of crabs.
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Maryland is one of those states that is already heavily gerrymandered by Democrats. Here, I've undone all of the pornographic district lines and replaced them with more reasonable lines. This map is deep blue, even without the bacon strips.
1st District (blue): Open. I've split up the current deep-red 1st District into a pair of red districts. The majority of the current 1st makes up this new 1st. It's the entire Eastern Shore. Although Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) represents this entire area, he lives way too far from here. He'll leave this area open for a new Republican. 55.5% McCain. Safe R.
2d District (green): Open or Harris. Dundalk and Bel Air. At 57% McCain, this is the reddest part of Maryland. Harris doesn't live here, either, but Cockeysville is reasonably close. It would do him good to move here because he certainly won't survive in Districts 3-13. Safe R.
3d District (purple): Open or John Sarbanes (D-Towson). Northeast Baltimore and Towson. 53.6% Black. 76.3% Obama. Sarbanes could run here, but he would certainly get primaried. He could try his luck in the 5th, but he would have to face another Democratic incumbent there. Whoever the nominee, this is Safe D.
4th District (red): Open or Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore). The rest of the City of Baltimore, up to Randallstown. 62.5% Black. 86.4% Obama. If Cummings chooses not to run for the open U.S. Senate seat created by Barbara Mikulski's impending retirement, this is where he would serve. If Cummings vacates this seat, there will be a Democratic free-for-all. Safe D no matter who the candidates are.
5th District (gold): Harris, Sarbanes, and/or C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger III (D-Cockeysville). The rest of Baltimore County, down to North Laurel. 53.7% Obama. Tough call on who would get the Democratic nomination. Sarbanes has the familiar family name, Ruppersberger has the tenure. A Ruppersberger retirement is also possible, which would fast-track Sarbanes right to the nomination and possibly the November victory. If Harris stays pat instead of running in the 2d District, he would likely lose to either of the Democratic incumbents. Harris is just too conservative for a D+1. Lean D.
6th District (teal): Open. Ellicott City, Columbia, and Glen Burnie. 55.7% Obama. I don't know where ex-Lieutenant Governor and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Anthony Brown lives, but parts of the current 4th District are located within these limits. He could run here or in the next district. Either way, it's Lean D.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Annapolis, Greenbelt, and South Laurel. Racial clusterfuck (51.3% non-white). 63.8% Obama. Brown could take this district instead of the 6th, if he wanted. Any Democrat will win here. Not even Brown can screw this one up. Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Open. Bowie and Calvert Beach. 50.2% Black. 72.5% Obama. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). Suitland, St. Charles, and the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. 52.5% Black. 72.8% Obama. Even though Hoyer is a high-ranking House Democrat, the African-American majority in this district may not be afraid to give him a primary challenge. No matter who gets the Democratic nomination, that person will breeze into Congress. Safe D.
10th District (deep pink): Open. Silver Spring and all of the precincts that abut the northeast border of D.C. 61% Black/Hispanic district. 81.9% Obama. Safe D.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. Bethesda and all of Carroll County. 55.7% Obama. Lean D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Gaithersburg, the suburbs of Frederick, and the suburbs of Hagerstown. 55.3% Obama. Lean D.
13th District (dark salmon): John Delaney (D-Potomac). The I-68 corridor, Hagerstown, Frederick, and Potomac. 54.5% Obama. With an incumbent, this has to be rated as Safe D in presidential years and Lean D in midterm years.
15 Electoral Votes: Safe D.
As you can see below, we're closing the gap on those worst case scenarios. Unfortunately, the Republicans will recover some of their majority in the next four states in this series. You'll have to wait at least another month before all of the big blue states come rolling in.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 63 (added MD-3, MD-4, MD-7, MD-8, MD-9, MD-10, MD-13)
Lean D: 37 (added MD-5, MD-6, MD-11, MD-12)
Tossup: 10
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 72 (added MD-1, MD-2)
Total: 100 D, 10 Toss, 79 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 58 (added MD-3, MD-4, MD-7, MD-8, MD-9, MD-10)
Lean D: 23 (added MD-5, MD-6, MD-11, MD-12, MD-13)
Tossup: 20
Lean R: 10
Safe R: 78 (added MD-1, MD-2)
Total: 81 D, 20 Toss, 88 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), WI (14) = 59
Tossup: CO (13), NE (1) = 14
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 114 D, 14 Toss, 125 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 42
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), NV (8) = 30
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 97 D, 30 Toss, 126 R