Friday's victory did not end the fight.
The stunning legislative upset on fast-track trade policy engineered by House Democrats Friday could be up for a rematch this week. But nobody is saying how the 3-1 rejection of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) bill can be turned around. That would require moving more than 80 Democrats from the no to yes column unless the GOP leadership can move large numbers of Republicans to switch
their votes.
Without some major changes, neither seems likely. And making major changes runs a serious risk of spurring representatives who have already voted in favor of TAA to vote against any rewritten version. Passing a revision would also require going back to the Senate for a revote. There, any House changes made in the Senate language might turn off Republicans, Democrats or both. Yet without changes, what can GOP leaders do to motivate a reversal of Friday's overwhelmingly negative line-up?
But it's wise to expect the unexpected since Friday's outcome certainly was. Although it appears the odds are against it, last week's win could well be temporary.
A TAA revote is required because of the way the trade package has been structured. After TAA was defeated, the House went immediately ahead and approved fast-track legislation—known officially as Trade Promotion Authority. This would restrict Congress only to voting yay or nay without amendment any trade agreement negotiated by the executive branch in the next six years. But the way it's now set up, TAA and TPA must both be passed in order to be sent to the White House for the president's signature. And there is going to be a lot of pressure not to budge pouring in from the same ad hoc anti-fast-track coalition whose pressure made Friday's win possible.
Lauren French and Jake Sherman at Politico report:
Finding new Democratic votes for TAA will be very difficult. House Democratic sources say that anyone who switches their vote now will be a prime target for labor and other progressive groups, who are looking to stop the Trans-Pacific Partnership at any cost. Labor groups have already put on the full-court press, with major ad buys in the districts of swing Democratic votes, and they’re expected to keep applying the pressure.
There is more on trade bill maneuvers below the fold.
And there's now additional clout from the 2016 Democratic front-runner. Hillary Clinton said over the weekend that President Obama should listen to the opponents of TPA and use the opportunity of Friday's defeat to improve the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the nearly completed agreement among 12 Pacific Rim nations, including the United States. Clinton also said he should work with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to get a better deal.
In a short speech Friday, Pelosi, who previously had been reportedly trying to persuade Democrats to vote for TAA and TPA announced she would be voting against both. That made it easier for other Democrats to do the same, and the vast majority of them did.
David Dayen noted last week in Salon that Speaker John Boehner has other choices if a TAA revote continues to seem unlikely to change the outcome. Each choice, however, has its own difficulties. For instance, passing a standalone TPA bill without TAA might work in the House. But in the Senate, it's a sure way to lose Democratic votes and just three additional nays would squelch the bill. Sweeteners for one party can taste bitter to the other.
In a tweet exchange, John Harwood at The New York Times says that there is another possibility: Instead of continuing to have two bills tied to each other, Congress could, he says, pass a "self-executing rule" that makes TAA part of TPA. Republicans previously opposed to TAA might be more willing to go along with this approach, meaning there would be no need to flip Democratic votes.
Whether any of these approaches—or one not yet created—emerges as the preferred path to give the Republican leadership hope for recovering from being outmaneuvered Friday, the role of those of us in grassroots opposition to fast-tracking is the same as before. We must put pressure on representatives who voted against it to stand against it again. This fight isn't over and there is a chance last week's victory could turn to ashes.