Already on the increase, wildfires will worsen without climate change action, the EPA report states.
The Environmental Protection Agency released a new report today that concludes thousands of lives can be saved annually in the United States if global action is taken to keep average global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C (3.6°F) by century's end. Action to ameliorate climate change now will pay off in financial gains as well, the EPA report says, something that foes of action might pay attention to since saving lives is far down their priority list. Some expert observers believe it's already too late to keep temperatures below 2°C, which ought to spur immediate action even more.
The report—Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action—was a project of the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA), led by EPA in collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Pacific Northwest National Lab, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and others.
The report compared two scenarios: Taking actions that hold average world temperatures below that 2°C threshhold and doing nothing, which the authors say would lead to an average temperature increase of 5°C.
The annual difference in the United States alone: In 2100, 57,000 fewer deaths from poor air quality; 12,000 fewer deaths from extreme temperatures in 49 major cities; $10-$34 billion in reduced electricity costs; $110 billion in avoided damage from lost labor due to high temperatures; $2.6-$3 billion in avoided damages from poor water quality; $3.1 billion in avoided damages and adaptation costs from sea level rise and storm surge; $6.6-$11 billion in avoided damages to agriculture; $520 million to $1.5 billion in avoided damages to forestry; an avoided loss of about 35 percent of current Hawaiian coral, with a recreational value of $1.1 billion annually; an avoided loss of about 34 percent of the U.S. oyster supply, 37 percent of scallops, and 29 percent of clams; an estimated 6.0-7.9 million fewer acres burned by wildfires; an estimated 230,000-360,000 acres of cold-water fish habitat preserved.
The authors point out that these national figures may mask regional impacts. For example, the Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions are the primary drivers of national trends of increasing wildfire activity.
One area that might not be considered when looking at climate change impacts is existing infrastructure. But the report's authors found otherwise:
Road bridges are a central component of the U.S. transportation system. With the average U.S. bridge now over 40 years old, however, more than 250 million vehicles cross structurally deficient bridges on a daily basis. Similar to other transportation infrastructure, bridges are vulnerable to a range of threats from climate change. Currently, most bridge failures are caused by scour, where swiftly moving water removes sediment from around bridge structural supports, weakening or destroying their foundations. Increased flooding and long-term river flow changes caused by climate change are expected to increase the frequency of bridge scour, further stressing the aging U.S. transportation system.
Action now could keep an estimated 720 to 2,200 additional bridges from becoming structurally deficient. Roads are also at risk. The EPA estimates that taking action now will save $4.2-$7.4 billion in avoided adaptation costs in 2100.
The EPA has put together this short video encapsulating its findings. Head below the fold to watch it.