GOP incumbent Pat Toomey and 2010 Democratic opponent Joe Sestak
While Quinnipiac gave Democrats some good news in the
Florida and
Ohio Senate races, they rain on the blue parade in Pennsylvania. They
give Republican Sen. Pat Toomey a 47-36 lead against 2010 Democratic foe Joe Sestak, about the same as the 48-35 edge they
found in April. They also test the senator against Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, and find the Republican prevailing 52-28.
A few groups have surveyed this contest, and there's no real consensus on where things stand. An early May poll from the GOP firm Harper Polling found Toomey in even better shape, while PPP gave him much smaller leads. Two local colleges have also found tight races, though they each have so many undecideds that it's hard to conclude much. Toomey's ratings help explain the huge gulf between PPP and Quinnipiac. While PPP gave Toomey a 30-37 job approval, Quinnipiac has him beloved with a 47-24 favorability score. While job approvals aren't the same as favorables, they shouldn't be that different.
We'll want to wait to see what other groups see. Team Blue definitely plans to target the Keystone State, but there's plenty of skepticism about both their candidates. As we've noted before, Sestak has had a bad relationship with state and national Democrats for years, and they believe, rightly or wrongly, that he's running an amateurish campaign. Pawlowski also didn't impress anyone with his 2014 gubernatorial bid, and party leaders haven't given up looking for someone they see as stronger.
If Democrats can take out Toomey, they'll have a great shot to retake the Senate. However, regardless of which polls you believe, there's little doubt that he won't go down easy. Toomey has worked hard to cultivate a moderate image in this light-blue state, and he'll be very well-funded. We'll be watching how things develop closely.