I know it's (perhaps ridiculously) early, but Democrats have a lot of ground to make up in Wisconsin so I wanted to take a very preliminary look at where gains can be made in the state legislature. I got my inspiration from BlueSasha's outstanding March 2014 diary, "11 Seats to Flip: Taking Back the Wisconsin State Assembly," from which I will quote liberally.
The current make-up of the WI State Assembly is 63 Republicans to 36 Democrats, thanks in no small part to our being gerrymandered to death. To continue the headline's allusion to the crown jewel of American cinema, Democrats' odds of actually retaking control of the Assembly in 2016 are in Lloyd Christmas territory, but they should be able to improve their position to the point where they can force some GOP legislators to take some tough votes or even invite Democrats to the table once in a while. This would be no small thing.
There are two reasons to be hopeful about Democrats picking up seats in the Assembly. First is that 11 GOP Assembly Reps voted against Walker's 2015-17 Budget, essentially saying "We've overreached carrying Walker's water for the last 4+ years, and now we're concerned about our own electability."
The second reason, perhaps counterintuitively, is gerrymandering itself. By packing as many predictably/reliably Democratic voters into as few districts as possible, Republicans have basically locked in a "floor" of 36 Democrats in the Assembly. That is, there's nowhere to go but up. Consider that of the 36 seats currently held by Democrats, Republicans only bothered to contest 13 of them in 2014. Of those 13 contested races, even in an off-year election, only one Democrat, Gordon Hintz of Oshkosh, won with less than 54% of the vote. And if we look back to 2012, Barack Obama carried Hintz's district by about 5,000 votes. The few blue seats that remain are very, very blue, particularly in a Presidential year.
As a sidenote to the strange effects of these very blue districts, it should be noted that Democratic campaigns spent over $530k (hard money) in 2014 on the 23 races without a GOP challenger. If this many seats go unopposed again, these Democratic incumbents should make a point to run on shoestring budgets and divert as much money to (and do as much fundraising for) competitive races as possible.
This is where you come in...
More than just thinking in general terms about the 2016 Assembly races, my hope is that this diary gets you (Yes, YOU!) thinking about possibly running for office yourself. I'm not aware of any Democratic candidates who have declared for any of the races I'm about to highlight, and one of the most disheartening aspects of the 2014 elections was the large number of races Democrats left uncontested. It's easy (and correct) to say "you can't win if you don't play," but it goes beyond that. Way too many of our representatives in Madison fall into a few narrow categories -- business-owner, lawyer, accountant, or career political operative. Before you tell yourself "But I'm just a [fill-in-the-blank]," think about all the other Wisconsinites who share your background and how (un)well-represented they are in state government.
Setting aside personal means and free-time, there's nothing that makes a business-owner (etc.) inherently more qualified to be a legislator than a construction worker, a shelf-stocker, a teacher, a welder, a home-care provider, an undergraduate student (you only need to be 18), a snowplow driver, a clerical worker, a foodservice worker, or anybody else. The fact that you care enough to come to this website to participate in discussions about equality, justice, good governance, and making WI a better place to live means you're exactly the kind of person we need in the legislature. If you get elected, there will be plenty of staff and legislative service agencies to help you with the nuts-and-bolts of legislating and parliamentary procedure. Don't worry about that. Your values and your life experiences are what's important.
If you're not up for running yourself, consider getting involved with your County Democratic Party to recruit good candidates for these races and build up the local party infrastructure for a successful 2016.
What are we looking at?
Below, I list 32 Assembly Districts currently held by Republicans where Democrats have either won or made respectable showings since the lines were redrawn in 2011. Included are election results for 2014 Assembly and Governor races and 2012 Presidential and US Senate races, along with two key votes recently taken by each legislator -- the 2015-17 Budget and the Bucks arena deal.
The Budget vote cuts both ways: a "no" vote indicates they're nervous about getting reelected (and possibly subject to getting primaried from the right), while a "yes" vote ties them to UW and K12 cuts, a structural deficit heading into the next budget, various attacks on local control, unconstitutional drug-testing of FoodShare recipients, passing up the Medicaid expansion, the elimination of the weekend, and a whole host of other terrible policies. The Bucks arena deal might be a bit more complicated to run on -- both because the most vulnerable Republicans voted against it and a good chunk of the Democratic caucus voted for it -- but a "yes" vote there is a giveaway to billionaires at a time when we aren't properly funding education and a hundred other more pressing needs.
If you have knowledge about the characteristics, quirks, or hot button issues of a particular district, please let us know in the comments. Or, if you care to write your own diary about your district I'd be happy to update this with a link to it. Likewise, if you're aware of any Democrats who intend to run for any of these seats let me know and I'll link to their webpage, ActBlue, etc.
Go below the orange thing for a look at the districts...
Low-Hanging Fruit:
There are 11 Assembly seats currently held by Republicans where a Democrat has carried the district at least once since 2012. No one should expect Democrats to pull off a clean-sweep of these seats in 2016, but this is where ground can realistically be made up and where resources should be directed. This should be a key measuring stick for the performance of Martha Laning and the new party leadership team. If Democrats don't manage to flip at least 6 or 7 of these seats with the aid of Presidential turnout, I'd take that as an indication that there are some serious problems within the Democratic Party of WI, beyond gerrymandering or other GOP dirty tricks.
Note that most of these GOP incumbents voted against both the budget and the Bucks arena deal. They know they're vulnerable.
Dist. # 51 (Map) Monroe, Mineral Point, Dodgeville, Spring Green
Incumbent: TODD NOVAK (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: DICK CATES 10,577 47.19% / TODD NOVAK 10,642 47.48% / ADAM LAUFENBERG (Libertarian) 1,177 5.3%
2014 Governor: ✓Burke 11,683 50.73% / Walker 11,021 47.85%
2012 President: ✓Obama 16,848 59.05% / Romney 11,332 39.71%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 15,534 55.20% / Thompson 11,965 42.52%
- Novak won by just 65 votes in a three-way race in 2014.
- Novak's 2014 campaign website says he's "totally opposed to WI's unfair and secretive redistricting process." He's also a former journalist for the Dodgeville Chronicle, so one would assume he has some thoughts on Public Records. Will be interesting both to see the extent to which he diverges from the party line and whether that leads to him getting primaried from the right.
From BlueSasha:
Southwestern Wisconsin politically reminds me of the South, but in reverse. The area is rapidly trending blue, with Tammy Baldwin and Barack Obama performing very solidly in 2012; however, the area is historically very Republican, and the GOP tends to still perform well on the local level....
Republican Howard Marklein [now a State Senator] reclaimed this seat from the Democrats in the 2010 Wave and voted lockstep with the Scott Walker agenda despite the political nature of his seat. Despite this, [in 2012] he defeated Mineral Point School Board member Mo May-Grimm 53%-47%, running thirteen points ahead of Mitt Romney.
Dist. # 85 (
Map) Eastern Marathon County, most of Wausau
Incumbent: DAVE HEATON (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: MANDY WRIGHT 11,082 49.81% / DAVE HEATON 11,167 50.19%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,040 44.01% / Walker 12,492 54.76%
2012 President: ✓Obama 15,032 51.93% / Romney 13,513 46.68%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 14,530 51.10% / Thompson 12,974 45.63%
2012 Assembly: ✓Mandy Wright (D) 13,930 49.70% / Patrick Snyder (R) 13,025 46.47%
- Seat won by Mandy Wright (D) in 2012; Heaton won by just 85 votes in 2014.
- Just judging by his 2014 campaign website, he doesn't look like a very adept campaigner. It's mostly just a resume; hardly any policies are mentioned beyond generally reducing "tax and regulatory burdens" and being "100% pro-life."
- District includes UW-Marathon County
Dist. # 49 (
Map) SW Corner of WI; Grant, Eastern Crawford, Western Richland Counties
Incumbent: TRAVIS TRANEL (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: CHAD HENNEMAN 7,689 38.56% / TRAVIS TRANEL 12,240 61.38%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,837 48.02% / Walker 10,312 50.33%
2012 President: ✓Obama 15,278 56.19% / Romney 11,460 42.15%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 13,582 51.26% / Thompson 12,168 45.92%
- District includes UW-Platteville
- District borders Illinois and Iowa; while not on the MN border, comparisons with WI's neighboring states (especially regarding jobs/wages and Medicaid expansion and health care costs) could resonate here.
From BlueSasha:
Travis Tranel was first elected in the Republican Wave of 2010, after handily defeating Democratic Assemblyman Phil Garthwaite. Tranel handily garnered an independent reputation for himself, voting with Rep. Nerison and the Democrats against the infamous Act 10 bill. This earned him a conservative primary challenge in 2012, but it probably ultimately help him stave off Union President Carol Beals, 54%-46%. Given Obama's 56% margin here, this district will see competitive elections for a long time with Tranel in office, but he unfortunately has staying power.
Dist. # 50 (
Map) Juneau, NE Richland, NW Sauk County (Dells area)
Incumbent: ED BROOKS (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: CHRISTOPHER MILLER 8,600 42.19% / ED BROOKS 11,775 57.77%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,508 45.51% / Walker 11,119 53.22%
2012 President: ✓Obama 14,436 53.97% / Romney 11,964 44.73%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 12,853 48.91% / Thompson 12,764 48.57%
From BlueSasha:
...the district has been stubbornly GOP on the local level.
Assemblyman Edward Brooks is an octogenarian Republican first elected in 2008. He fought off Town of Fountain Clerk Sarah Ann Shanahan in the 2010 Wave Election and narrowly defeated Shanahan in a 2012 rematch 50%-47%. He has something of a nice-old-man reputation over in Richland Center, but he recently had some negative headlines in which he skipped votes on a property tax cut to attend one of his fundraisers.
Dist. # 68 (
Map) Eastern Eau Claire, Western Clark, SE Chippewa County
Incumbent: KATHY BERNIER (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: JEFF PECK 10,076 47.15% / KATHY BERNIER 11,289 52.82%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,752 44.08% / Walker 12,106 54.72%
2012 President: ✓Obama 13,533 51.15% / Romney 12,558 47.47%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 12,997 49.89% / Thompson 12,205 46.85%
- In 2014 Bernier outspent Jeff Peck (D) by a 2:1 margin ($186k to $95k) to retain her seat by a relatively slim margin. This was the 2nd most expensive Assembly race in 2014.
- Bernier's campaign website laments that being elected to the Assembly in 2010 required her to "take a significant pay decrease." Some hay could be made from that.
- Supported Right-To-Work (for less), saying: "states that have already implemented right-to-work have outperformed non right to work states in economic growth and personal wage growth." Seems kinda dubious.
From BlueSasha:
This district is very capable of electing Democrats on all levels of government.
Representative Kathy Bernier was narrowly elected in the 2010 Wave Election, defeating incumbent Democratic Assemblywoman Kristen Dexter by a 50%-50% margin. In 2012, Bernier faced a tough election against a candidate who wasn't considered to be highly targeted - Democratic Thorp School Board Member Judy Smriga. Bernier held Smriga back to a 52%-48% margin of victory.
Dist. # 96 (
Map) Crawford (Prairie du Chien), Vernon (Viroqua), Southern Monroe County
Incumbent: LEE NERISON (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: PETER FLESCH 8,839 41.06% / LEE NERISON 12,683 58.91%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,639 48.51% / Walker 11,012 50.21%
2012 President: ✓Obama 14,994 55.47% / Romney 11,588 42.87%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 13,909 52.49% / Thompson 11,862 44.77%
From BlueSasha:
On paper, this district should go Blue no problem.
GOP Representative Lee Nerison was elected to the 96th district back in 2004 and has fended off tough races before. War Veteran Tim Johnson ran against Nerison in 2012, and Nerison managed not just to beat Johnson, but to trounce him 60%-40%. In numerical terms, Nerison ran sixteen points ahead of Mitt Romney.
Nerison is an adept politician who seems to understand campaigning in his district, and has effectively cultivated a reputation as a moderate. He is only one of three Republicans left in the State Assembly that voted against Act 10, the controversial budget repair bill that spurred the infamous 2011 Capital Protests.
Dist. # 1 (
Map) Door, Kewaunee, Eastern Brown County
Incumbent: JOEL KITCHENS (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: JOE MAJESKI 12,256 43.24% / JOEL KITCHENS 16,072 56.70%
2014 Governor: Burke 11,899 41.26% / Walker 16,671 57.80%
2012 President: Obama 16,812 49.37% / Romney 16,846 49.47%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 16,496 49.12% / Thompson 16,159 48.12%
- There are serious problems with gigantic farms ("Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations," or CAFOs) polluting the groundwater in this district to the point where it is unfit for human consumption. Kitchens is a farm animal veterinarian by trade, so of course his position is that "The problems we've had in Door County were not caused by CAFOs."
- Kitchens voted for Walker's budget despite substantial opposition expressed by his constituents.
- Kitchens outspent Majeski (D) 2:1 in 2014 ($170k to $80k). This was the 3rd most expensive Assembly race in 2014.
Dist. # 42 (
Map) Columbia & NW Dodge County
Incumbent: KEITH RIPP (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: GEORGE FERRITER 10,518 42.46% / KEITH RIPP 14,238 57.48%
2014 Governor: Burke 11,415 44.92% / Walker 13,674 53.81%
2012 President: ✓Obama 15,674 51.00% / Romney 14,736 47.95%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,643 48.20% / Thompson 14,966 49.26%
State Rep. Keith Ripp has served as a rubber stamp for the policies of Gov. Scott Walker and the special interests in Madison, rather than as a serious representative of communities such as Lodi, Poynette and Arlington. Ripp isn’t going to change, so voters should make the change.
From
BlueSasha:
Columbia County and the surrounded area, however, has been trending blue in a very dramatic way. Columbia County, for example, was one of just three counties to go from Red to Blue during the Recall Election (meaning Columbia County went for Scott Walker in 2010, but went for Tom Barrett in 2012)....
Ripp is not a particularly compelling or charismatic figure, but he is ridiculously well-connected for a state legislator. The Ripp name is HUGE in Columbia County and northern Dane County, synonymous with Big Agriculture with multiple parks and establishments named "Ripp" in the area.
Dist. # 72 (
Map) SE Wood (Wisconsin Rapids), Southern Portage, NW Waushara, NE Adams County
Incumbent: SCOTT KRUG (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: DANA DUNCAN 10,317 44.02% / SCOTT KRUG 13,113 55.95%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,365 43.01% / Walker 13,397 55.59%
2012 President: Obama 14,547 48.61% / Romney 14,967 50.01%
2012 Senate: ✓Baldwin 14,473 49.67% / Thompson 13,780 47.29%
- There are 2 conflicting development proposals in this district: a world-class golf resort and a 5,000+ cow dairy CAFO. If the mega-dairy goes ahead, the golf resort will be scrapped because of the smell. Property values are already plummeting in the district due to the effects of existing CAFOs. Krug has been a shill for Big Ag and ALEC interests, but curiously reversed himself and voiced opposition to the proposed mega-dairy just before the 2014 elections.
- Krug outspent Dana Duncan (D) by a 5:1 margin in 2014 ($128k to $24k). This was the 9th most expensive Assembly race.
- In his 2010 race, Krug promised to limit himself to 2 terms in the Assembly. He is currently serving his 3rd term.
From BlueSasha:
This is one of only two districts (the other one is the 1st district) where Tammy Baldwin won, while Mitt Romney defeated Obama here. Suffice to say, this district is very swingy.
Republican Scott Krug very narrowly defeated long-term incumbent Democrat Marlin Schneider in the 2010 Wave elections. Two years later in 2012, Krug won re-election by just 109 votes against Wisconsin Rapids firefighter Justin Pluess in a race that nearly went to recount. To make matters worse for Rep. Krug going into 2014, he made headlines for reneging on a campaign promise in 2010 that he would not take any taxpayer per diem money. He later turned out to be one of the top-spenders of per diems and justified it with the worst possible response: "That was a different campaign."
Dist. # 75 (
Map) Barron, Southern Washburn County
Incumbent: ROMAINE QUINN (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: STEPHEN SMITH 9,643 45.10% / ROMAINE QUINN 11,730 54.86%
2014 Governor: Burke 8,830 40.74% / Walker 12,569 57.99%
2012 President: Obama 13,847 47.40% / Romney 14,915 51.06%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,589 47.70% / Thompson 14,045 49.30%
2012 Assembly: ✓Steven Smith (D) 14,456 51.0% / Roger Rivard (R) 13,841 48.8%
- Stephen Smith (D) won this Assembly seat in 2012.
- Romaine Quinn is a professional-culture-warrior type who managed to parlay his local celebrity status as "Youngest Mayor in America" (for one term) into an Assembly seat. He has "Young Scott Walker" written all over him, and it would be in Democrats' long-term interest to target this district and see to it that he's relegated to becoming a lobbyist ASAP.
- Quinn's legislative accomplishments include getting a shout-out from the NRA for being the "lead sponsor" of repealing the handgun purchase waiting/cooling-off period ...and that's about it. Quinn will also claim that he is personally responsible for reducing the UW cut from $300M to $250M, completely missing the point that state aid to UW needs to be increased, not decreased by a slightly smaller amount.
- Quinn's campaign website stresses his commitment to local control: "Local control means local control all of the time, not just times when it is politically convenient." Curious that he voted for Walker's budget then, and for that matter, associates himself with the WIGOP.
Dist. # 70 (
Map) Look at the map! Stretches from Sparta/Ft. McCoy/Tomah all the way around to the far NE side of Stevens Point, while somehow avoiding Wisconsin Rapids and UWSP campus area.
Incumbent: NANCY VANDER MEER (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: AMY SUE VRUWINK 10,508 47.14% / NANCY VANDER MEER 11,766 52.78%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,472 41.86% / Walker 12,812 56.62%
2012 President: Obama 13,683 48.43% / Romney 14,116 49.96%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,228 47.83% / Thompson 13,512 48.86%
2012 Assembly: ✓Amy Sue Vruwink (D) 13,518 50.19% / Nancy Vander Meer (R) 13,374 49.65%
- This is arguably the most gerrymandered district in the state and it was also far and away the most expensive Assembly race of 2014, with VanderMeer outspending incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink (D) $238k to 117k. (That's $20/vote for VanderMeer!)
Within Striking Distance:
In each of the next 9 seats, a Democrat has come within about 1,000 votes of carrying the district since 2012. These will be uphill battles, but depending on the dynamics of the Presidential and US Senate races, or a particular issue catching fire locally (roads, K12/UW funding, sand mining, etc.), it's not impossible to imagine flipping one or two of these. And don't underestimate the likelihood that Scott Walker (and/or Ron Johnson) will continue to say and do stupid things over the next 15 months that will rub off on these incumbents. There's no excuse for allowing any of these GOP incumbents to run unopposed.
Dist. # 4 (
Map) Western Green Bay & Suburbs
Incumbent: DAVID STEFFEN (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: CHRIS PLAUNT 10,026 40.88% / DAVID STEFFEN 14,467 58.99%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,750 41.70% / Walker 14,758 57.25%
2012 President: Obama 15,634 47.88% / Romney 16,631 50.93%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 15,258 47.78% / Thompson 15,831 49.58%
Dist. # 21 (
Map) Oak Creek & South Milwaukee
Incumbent: JESSIE RODRIGUEZ (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 9,709 41.26% / Walker 13,548 57.58%
2012 President: Obama 14,706 47.84% / Romney 15,671 50.98%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,170 47.06% / Thompson 15,264 50.70%
- Rodriguez is closely linked to formerly convicted felon Scott Jensen, who heads up the voucher school lobby in WI. Her cousin Zeus Rodriguez also serves as president of both St. Anthony School and a group called Hispanics for School Choice.
- Rodriguez's support for the Bucks Arena deal could be a big liability. Much of the action over the past few months to make the arena deal palatable to state legislators involved throwing Milwaukee County (further) under the bus. That might not play well in this suburban Milwaukee County district.
Dist. # 29 (
Map) Eastern St Croix, Western Dunn County
Incumbent: JOHN MURTHA (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 8,159 42.87% / Walker 10,587 55.63%
2012 President: Obama 13,735 48.00% / Romney 14,272 49.87%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,361 47.69% / Thompson 13,767 49.14%
- District includes UW-Stout
- This district is a bedroom community to Minneapolis, so Murtha's support for the Bucks arena deal could be a bit sticky here.
Dist. # 35 (
Map) Lincoln (Tomahawk), Eastern Langlade (Antigo), Southern Oneida County
Incumbent: MARY J. CZAJA (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 9,220 38.06% / Walker 14,710 60.73%
2012 President: Obama 14,225 46.80% / Romney 15,805 51.99%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,002 47.19% / Thompson 14,520 48.94%
- On Joint Finance Committee; voted for 999 Motion that included gutting Public Records laws
- Czaja recently disclosed to constituents concerned about education cuts and dumbing-down teacher licensing standards that her votes on these issues were "the decision of [GOP] leadership."
Dist. # 36 (
Map) Menominee, Marinette, Southern Forest, Western Oconto County
Incumbent: JEFFREY L. MURSAU (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 8,701 36.85% / Walker 14,658 62.07%
2012 President: Obama 13,776 46.41% / Romney 15,553 52.40%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,406 46.53% / Thompson 14,492 50.30%
- This district is home to several Native American communities including the Menominee Nation, Sokaogon Chippewa, and Forest County Potawatomi. With Walker and WIGOP's pattern of disrespect and hostility towards native people (GTac mine, refusing to meet with Menominee about the proposed Kenosha casino), it would be exciting to see the DPW recruit and aggressively support a Native American candidate for Assembly from the 36th.
Dist. # 41 (
Map) Green Lake, Adams, Juneau County; Ripon, Adams-Friendship, Wisconsin Dells
Incumbent: JOAN BALLWEG (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: JOE KALLAS 8,409 39.00% / JOAN BALLWEG 13,152 60.99%
2014 Governor: Burke 8,910 40.05% / Walker 13,043 58.63%
2012 President: Obama 13,777 48.51% / Romney 14,278 50.27%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 12,847 46.25% / Thompson 14,127 50.86%
Dist. # 67 (
Map) Chippewa (Chippewa Falls), Eastern Dunn County
Incumbent: TOM LARSON (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: GARY STENE 8,691 39.43% / TOM LARSON 13,353 60.57%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,577 41.56% / Walker 13,153 57.08%
2012 President: Obama 14,538 48.11% / Romney 15,290 50.59%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,120 47.40% / Thompson 14,650 49.18%
- Frac Sand mining is huge in this district and growing fast. Problems with air quality, road wear/congestion, high-capacity wells, and local governments being unable to regulate this industry could be an issue in the campaign.
- This race was obviously not targeted in 2014. Larson outspent Gary Stene (D) by a margin of 12:1 ($98k to just $8k).
From BlueSasha:
Assemblyman Tom Larson was elected to this district in the 2010 Wave Election. He was challenged by a local nurse Deb Bieging in 2012, and despite not being targeted she managed to hold Representative Larson to a 53%-47% margin. There is a healthy Democratic bench here, so if the party targets this district in November [2014], Larson could be in for a serious fight.
Dist. # 88 (
Map) Far East Side of Green Bay, De Pere, Central Brown County
Incumbent: JOHN MACCO (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: DAN ROBINSON 10,046 43.72% / JOHN MACCO 12,915 56.20%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,894 41.70% / Walker 13,591 57.28%
2012 President: Obama 14,960 48.71% / Romney 15,436 50.26%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,484 48.28% / Thompson 14,730 49.10%
- Vice-Chair of Joint Audit Committee, which has stalled for months before finally scheduling a hearing on the Legislative audit of WEDC that came out in May.
- District includes UW-Green Bay
From BlueSasha:
The nature of this district is distinctly suburban. This district is also distinctly swingy, though it is a tad more Red on the federal level.
Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson both won the 88th with about 50%. That said, Democrats do have slightly better luck downballot throughout the Fox Valley, so be prepared for a hotly contested race.
Republican John Klenke beat Democratic Assemblyman Jim Soletski in the 2010 Wave Election by just 267 votes. Democrats did not target this race in 2012 but despite that, teacher and Democratic nominee Ward Bacon still managed to hold Klenke to a small 52%-48% win.
Dist. # 93 (
Map) Western Eau Claire (not including City of Eau Claire), Southern Dunn, Pepin, Pierce County
Incumbent: WARREN PETRYK (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: JEFF SMITH 10,749 44.55% / WARREN PETRYK 13,367 55.40%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,530 42.43% / Walker 14,003 56.42%
2012 President: Obama 14,904 47.01% / Romney 16,393 51.71%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,680 47.19% / Thompson 15,666 50.36%
- Close to UW-Eau Claire, UW-River Falls, and UW-Stout; district avoids all 3 campuses, but UW economic impact certainly reaches into the district.
- On the Minnesota border, so highlighting the widely divergent policy choices and economic outcomes between the two states might be an effective strategy.
At Least Show Up:
This last section lists districts where Democrats have come within about 2,000 votes of winning at least one contest since 2012. This far out, there's no reason to think that any of these GOP incumbents are in any real danger of losing reelection, but one of them could always do or say something breathtakingly stupid to put their seat back in play. Democrats need to at least field candidates in each of these races on the off chance of a colossal GOP blunder.
Dist. # 25 (
Map) Manitowoc, Eastern Calumet County
Incumbent: PAUL TITTL (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 8,458 36.07% / Walker 14,678 62.60%
2012 President: Obama 13,782 46.86% / Romney 15,201 51.69%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,181 45.82% / Thompson 14,507 50.43%
Dist. # 30 (
Map) SW St. Croix, Northern Pierce County; Hudson, River Falls
Incumbent: DEAN KNUDSON (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: DARREL LAUMANN 8,658 37.05% / DEAN KNUDSON 13,951 59.70%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,104 42.31% / Walker 13,428 56.22%
2012 President: Obama 14,777 46.10% / Romney 16,694 52.08%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 14,737 46.76% / Thompson 16,082 51.03%
- On Joint Finance Committee; voted for 999 Motion that included gutting Public Records laws
- District includes UW-River Falls
- On the Minnesota border, so highlighting the widely divergent policy choices and economic outcomes between the two states might be an effective strategy.
Dist. # 55 (
Map) NE Winnebago, SW Outagamie County; Neenah, far West Side of Appleton
Incumbent: MIKE ROHRKASTE (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: MARK WESTPHAL 10,240 42.15% / MIKE ROHRKASTE 14,027 57.74%
2014 Governor: Burke 10,056 40.05% / Walker 14,653 58.36%
2012 President: Obama 14,931 47.18% / Romney 16,118 50.93%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,937 44.85% / Thompson 15,949 51.32%
Dist. # 87 (
Map) Sawyer, Rusk, Taylor County; Hayward
Incumbent: JAMES W. EDMING (R)
2015-17 Budget: NO
Bucks Arena: NO
2014 Assembly: RICHARD PULCHER 7,098 33.36% / JAMES W. EDMING 14,121 66.37%
2014 Governor: Burke 7,879 35.47% / Walker 14,045 63.23%
2012 President: Obama 12,427 44.74% / Romney 14,963 53.87%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 12,357 45.63% / Thompson 13,778 50.88%
Dist. # 89 (
Map) Eastern Oconto, Southern Marinette, Northern Brown County; Peshtigo, City of Marinette, Howard
Incumbent: JOHN NYGREN (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 8,480 36.64% / Walker 14,425 62.32%
2012 President: Obama 13,484 45.96% / Romney 15,520 52.90%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,174 45.79% / Thompson 14,742 51.24%
- Co-Chair of Joint Finance Committee; voted for 999 Motion that included gutting Public Records laws
- On Joint Audit Committee, which has stalled for months before finally scheduling a hearing on the Legislative audit of WEDC that came out in May.
Dist. # 3 (
Map) Calumet, SE Outagamie County (Kimberly, Little Chute)
Incumbent: AL OTT (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 9,329 36.90% / Walker 15,677 62.01%
2012 President: Obama 14,551 46.29% / Romney 16,435 52.29%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,818 44.83% / Thompson 15,907 51.61%
Dist. # 5 (
Map) Eastern Outagamie (Kaukauna), Western Brown County
Incumbent: JIM STEINEKE (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: JEFF MCCABE 9,084 37.65% / JIM STEINEKE 15,045 62.35%
2014 Governor: Burke 8,779 35.07% / Walker 15,989 63.87%
2012 President: Obama 14,321 45.78% / Romney 16,559 52.94%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,829 45.04% / Thompson 15,857 51.64%
- Jim Steineke actually has a pretty long criminal rap sheet. And he's not only an Assembly rep, but he's the Majority Leader for the GOP.
- Steineke was also the one who came up with the idea of having lobbyists go door-to-door for WIGOP campaigns last fall.
Dist. # 28 (
Map) Western Burnett, Polk County (St. Croix Falls)
Incumbent: ADAM JARCHOW (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: TRAVIS SCHACHTNER 7,736 37.77% / ADAM JARCHOW 12,747 62.23%
2014 Governor: Burke 8,248 39.36% / Walker 12,453 59.42%
2012 President: Obama 12,833 43.59% / Romney 16,093 54.66%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 12,992 45.08% / Thompson 15,060 52.25%
Dist. # 31 (
Map) SE Rock, SW Walworth County; Eastern edge of Beloit & Janesville
Incumbent: AMY LOUDENBECK (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 9,492 40.36% / Walker 13,734 58.40%
2012 President: Obama 14,066 46.49% / Romney 15,853 52.39%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,539 45.64% / Thompson 15,220 51.31%
- On Joint Finance Committee; voted for 999 Motion that included gutting Public Records laws
Dist. # 37 (
Map) Southern Dodge, Northern Jefferson, NE Dane County; Watertown, DeForest, Columbus
Incumbent: JOHN JAGLER (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: MARY ARNOLD 10,058 41.10% / JOHN JAGLER 14,400 58.84%
2014 Governor: Burke 9,887 38.97% / Walker 15,171 59.80%
2012 President: Obama 14,163 45.88% / Romney 16,308 52.83%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 13,324 43.85% / Thompson 16,276 53.56%
Dist. # 62 (
Map) Northern Racine County
Incumbent: THOMAS WEATHERSTON (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: UNOPPOSED
2014 Governor: Burke 10,921 39.88% / Walker 16,170 59.05%
2012 President: Obama 15,593 45.67% / Romney 18,228 53.39%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 15,318 45.58% / Thompson 17,352 51.63%
Dist. # 69 (
Map) Eastern Clark, Western Marathon County; Marshfield
Incumbent: BOB KULP (R)
2015-17 Budget: YES
Bucks Arena: YES
2014 Assembly: NORBERT SALAMONSKI 6,380 30.95% / BOB KULP 14,233 69.05%
2014 Governor: Burke 7,308 34.22% / Walker 13,807 64.64%
2012 President: Obama 11,516 43.53% / Romney 14,551 55.00%
2012 Senate: Baldwin 11,486 44.28% / Thompson 13,496 52.03%