You may have the impression from the propaganda that every country involved is waiting with breathless anticipation for the United States Congress to ratify our wonderful new free trade deal. That's hardly true.
For the record here is the list of potential participants as listed in Wikipedia-
* Brunei
* Chile
* New Zealand
* Singapore
* United States
* Australia
* Peru
* Vietnam
* Malaysia
* Mexico
* Canada
* Japan
* Colombia
* Philippines
* Thailand
* Taiwan
* South Korea
Now frankly I don't think the Wikipedia article is very credible since it reads like a press release and it includes 5 countries (Colombia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea) that are not part of the current negotiations. Also two of them, Colombia and South Korea, already have special trade relationships with the U.S. that illustrate on the one hand (Colombia) that there is no effective enforcement of unionized labor protections (they actually murder organizers without a peep of protest from the U.S.) and on the other (South Korea) that so-called 'Free' trade agreements actually cost United States jobs and increase our trade deficit with little benefit except to our ruling Plutocracy.
In many of the 12 remaining countries the Trans Pacific Partnership is deeply unpopular because it works against their national self-interest.
My diary yesterday, TPP Fail in Maui! (Hurray!), touched on the difficulties other countries are having with the pact.
Mexico is trying to become a major car exporter with help from the Big 3 automotive companies (GM, Ford, Chrysler). They are unhappy with loopholes that allow Japan to outsource more than 35% of their parts to countries like Thailand.
"What you can accuse me of is putting myself to the front to really push the interests of my country," said Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal.
Canada likewise (both Mexico and Canada have special access to the United States automobile market under NAFTA) and farmers are also unhappy with their markets being challenged by New Zealand where dairy and agricultural products are the most valuable exports. Japanese farmers are likewise not enthusiastic over rice and beef imports.
And I might point out justifiably so, Canadian and U.S. beef has proven contaminated time and again under the dismantling of national food inspection by a succession of U.S. administrations and Stephen Harper in favor of industry self regulation.
Agricultural trades are among the biggest sticking points and also the ones that are most unlikely to be resolved. Australia, which most people don't think of as a major sugar cane producer, is quite upset with the deal and that illustrates the problem-
Many of these governments are right leaning (either avowedly or as accolytes of neo-liberal economic policies) and depend quite heavily on the support of a conservative, traditionally agricultural, electorate and betrayal of that base threatens their continuation in power, especially if they have a parliamentary system and a thin majority.
The Japanese Abe government in particular is already largely unpopular due to its financial policies (which are actually a good idea, ask Krugman) and nuclear power policy. That Godzilla thing? Well imagine if it had been Los Angeles and San Francisco that had been nuked and Portland that had a melt down and then tell me what you think.
Japan also has an election next year and Abe's primary goal, the re-militarization of the JSDF (oh, I might talk about it later), is already achieved.
So the United States, Canada, and Japan face elections in which the Trans Pacific Partnership can possibly play a major role. Australia's parliamentary majority is threatened by defections of majority MPs and Malaysia is rocked by scandal.
Well, that's 5. Mexico is not happy so that's 6 and that's all before we get to the Big Pharma giveaway.
The Big Pharma Giveaway
Nobody at all is happy with the U.S. insistence on Intellectual Property regulation. That's right, far from 'Free' trade the United states is insisting, insisting on ludicrous patent and copyright protections that are guaranteed to raise healthcare costs among other things.
Well Malaysia, Vietnam, Chile, and Brunei ALL think this is a very bad idea which brings the country total to 9 opposed of 12, but actually I'm cheating- EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. of the other 11 potential signatories are against the IP provisions of TPP which Senator Orrin Hatch has proclaimed are vital to passage of the final agreement in the Senate.
I'm almost done.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
h/t martini who nudged me to produce this follow up. As I told him privately and I now say publicly it is not my intention to become a spokesperson for any particular point of view on Daily Kos nor do I expect lightning to strike twice. This is likely my last word (unless developments warrant) for a while as I have a real life and have devoted 2 days to this project already.
However I did promise to talk some about the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
While many of their economies have stumbled recently, China, Russia, India, and Brazil are emergent superpowers particularly in resource extraction and cheap (slave) labor. As such they are natural centers of gravity for other countries that are pursuing similar strategies for growth (Canada, Australia) or are shut out of the traditional western system because of bigotry (practically all of Africa). The key point of the pivot to Asia is already achived with the re-militarization of Japan. The West seeks to keep the East in check with bayonets and bullets failing more subtle persuasion.
The East is vast and unconquerable and they are rapidly developing a separate system of finance (merchantilist) and transport (not dependent on Mahan's Seapower). They have enormous national resources the West has already plundered.
You may think these are arguments for the aggressive policy we have pursued but instead they are merely the excuses of Plutocrats to wring more from the exploited Earth. They are already abandoning us like a used prostitute and not even leaving any money on the bed stand. 'Free' trade is simply an excuse to loot and scoot.