Today, Joe Biden celebrated Labor Day with a speech in Pittsburgh. According to CNN:
Beaming, and looking more joyful in public than at any time since the tragic death of his son Beau in May, the 72-year-old's energetic trek through streets lined with well wishers...
As he worked the crowd, "The question on everyone's lips was "Will Joe Run?"
Will he? Follow me below the fold...
Joe Biden made no formal declarations of a candidacy today, but he certainly looked and sounded like a candidate, at least more so than he has at any other point during this cycle. Being back in the state of his birth, he seemed reenergized and moved by the calls from the crowd to "Run Joe, Run!" His answers to questions about whether he will run though provide insight into his decision making process.
When one person asked if he would run, he said, "I haven't made that decision yet." Later in the parade route:
When a man yelled out he should run for the White House, Biden replied : "You gotta talk to my wife about that."
The media has long speculated that his wife may well hold a veto over another national campaign. Today, I think his answers make very clear that his decision to run will largely be determined by what he said last week, that he will run if, and only if, his family, not just himself, can emotionally handle the stress of another campaign and another 4-8 years in the spotlight. This is not an easy decision, which is why I think he honestly does not know yet.
While we do not know whether he will run, his speech today previewed what a Joe Biden candidacy will look like in 2016. If he runs, he will run as the compromise between Sanders and Clinton. It will be a campaign built around a message of being Obama's third term, with a healthy dose of Sanders/Warren style Democratic Liberalism.
Speaking to the crowd, Biden said:
"I am hot. I am mad, I am angry...Something is wrong, folks.... the level playing field doesn't exist....Why in God's name should a man or woman working in a steel mill making $50,000 pay a higher rate than someone that makes tens of millions of dollars a year on Wall Street? I mean, I am serious."
CNN reports in the speech:
Biden roared as he bemoaned the way workers have been "clobbered" in recent years, and vowed to fight to ensure a share for the middle class of the profits the rich have enjoyed from rising productivity.
Perhaps the most interesting window into his potential campaign strategy came when he once again complimented Bernie Sanders, but did not mention Clinton. In remarks similar to what he told donors in Florida, he said, "Bernie Sanders...is doing a helluva job by the way." Combining his speech with these compliments of Sanders makes it clear that Biden sees his path to the nomination as being dependent on tapping into the Sanders message, while defending the record of the Obama Administration.
As for Clinton, I think he sees her voters as being those naturally open to his candidacy, but fearful of the state of her current campaign. He may have to attack her to move support towards him, but will not do so until he is officially a candidate. Why attack the front-runner of your party, if you are not yet sure of your own intentions? I would imagine when/if he does attack, since he wants to be viewed as Obama's third term, that these attacks may be limited to defending the parts of the Obama record where Clinton is trying to distance herself.
Is this a winning message? One voter in Pittsburgh offered that he supported Biden because he is not as liberal as Sanders, but does not have the baggage of Clinton. In addition, labor union leaders said he was "a champion of working men and working women" and the true heir of Obama's legacy. Some voters and union leaders then do see him as the balance between Obama and Sanders. This may be a difficult balance, but it does certainly seem to be one with some initial appeal.
We saw today what a Biden campaign will look like in 2016. The blueprint is out there for all of us to see. The question will be whether a career politician with ties to the banking industry can pull off the balance. His ability to do this may be dependent on who endorses him if he runs (Elizabeth Warren?). Labor unions, it appears, may be willing to do so, in a bid perhaps to cut the difference between Clinton and Sanders. They may not be the only ones, which is the hope of a Biden candidacy.