I’ve been thinking about this a lot. What's the endgame to this mess? How does this optimally resolve itself?
In the end, I think there’s a decent chance the more practical Republicans will be forced to freeze out the 50 or so Tea Partiers and reach across the aisle—and it will be good, very good, both for the Democrats and for American politics in general. Here’s why.
First, the Tea Party won't stop until they're forced to. In their mind, Obama is illegitimate, and anything he gets that he wants needs to be wiped out by any means possible. Even after he's out of office, they'll insist on undoing everything he's ever done. They want nothing less than to blot him out of the history books, as if his administration never happened, because he was a usurper, not a real president.
Boehner actually did a good job of getting what he could, given the constraints of a Democratic president and (until recently) Democratic Senate. But that's not the standard by which the Tea Party is evaluating Republican leadership. To them, anything that remains of Obama's legacy is an abomination, a dark stain on American history. Therefore, he has to be completely defeated. Anyone who lets him have anything at all is surrendering, appeasing, enabling, etc.
Second, the Tea Party will never form a third party unless they're forced to. Because in their mind, they're the “real” conservatives. It's those other RINOs, aiding and abetting the enemy, who need to be expelled. As much as the Tea Party hates the Republican leadership, they won't defect, because they don't recognize their own leadership as legitimate either. In other words, they want the divorce, but they refuse to be the one who moves out.
Finally, the Tea Party has zero tactical acumen. They're so in their own world that they think the American people will eventually side with them, the "real Americans," over the usurper. They're going to want to force this issue during the 2016 campaign, because it's their last chance to act out against Obama before he leaves office. The more practical Republicans are going to want nothing to do with this brinksmanship during the campaign, because they know they'll get slaughtered for it.
I don't know how smart McCarthy is, or where his ultimate sympathies lie. I know for now the Tea Partiers and establishment Republicans are both fine with him. But that won't last. Either he's going to side with the Tea Party and blow things up, or he'll "appease" the Democrats and the knives will come out. And when the knives do come out for him, they're going to come out hard, because they already have Boehner's scalp, and they're going to want to stick it to Obama before he leaves. The presidential candidates will also be fanning the flames.
It's 246-188 in the House right now. So it comes down to who would you rather work with: these 50 crazy guys who refuse to concede an inch, or 30 moderate Democrats?
I'm not talking about breaking the Hastert rule once in a while, like Boehner did. I'm talking about ditching it completely, purging the Tea Partiers out of the leadership positions, and essentially saying to the Tea Party, "What are you going to do about it?"
Why would the establishment Republicans ever do that?
Yes, the optics will be bad, and the Tea Party will howl. They very well may form their own party. But—and this is very important—the Tea Party won’t get to take the Republican brand with them. They'll have to build their party from scratch. They'll get the divorce they want, but they’ll be the ones who were dumped and found their stuff piled on the curb.
In short, if the establishment Republicans start to believe a split is inevitable, they'll want to (1) be the aggressors, (2) keep the party apparatus, rather than risk being expelled themselves, and (3) do it as soon (i.e., as far away from the election) as possible.
Now the Republican base is in a bind. The Tea Party just doesn't have enough support to be a national party. If this split delivers the White House to the Democrats, they'll be the ones blamed for it. "You people are so dangerous that we'd rather deal with the Democrats than with you" is a heck of a statement.
Given those circumstances, I think after all the initial howling, most of the Republican base will side with the establishment Republicans, even though most will do so reluctantly. It'll hurt the Republican party in the short term, but be good for them in the long term. It'll end this ridiculous crusade to undo everything Obama's ever done, and leave no doubt who’s in charge of the party.
A separate Tea Party will probably win some House seats in 2016. But the Republicans will win more. If, as would be likely, the House ends up with none of the Republicans, Democrats, or Tea Partiers having a majority, everything that gets done will be through a Repub-Dem coalition, which will isolate the Tea Party even further.
Why would the Democrats in the House play ball with the establishment Republicans? Why wouldn’t they just close ranks, and let them all go down in flames?
Because if the establishment Republicans publicly denounce the crazies, and say, “We’re done dealing with those jokers—we’d rather deal with you,” there will be enormous pressure on the Democrats to accept the overture.
Congress might actually become functional again! Compromise will suddenly be in vogue! If the Democrats reject that opportunity, they’ll be the ones blamed for it. It’ll be seen as playing politics, kicking the Republicans while they’re down.
After all, the Democrats have an incentive to disempower the Tea Party too. And they’ll have a lot of leverage. The Republicans will be very eager to get some things done, so they can justify the expulsion: “See how we got nothing done when those crazies were around, but now Congress is finally functional again?”
I expect the Democrats will stay disciplined, and drive a hard bargain. But they will do deals. Those deals won’t be perfect, but they should get some important concessions—important things we progressives want done. And it’ll be a whole lot better than the whole lot of nothing the other side of the aisle has been willing to give us lately.
If this happens, the climate in Washington could very well change drastically. It won’t disappear overnight, but the whole Gingrich-inspired regime of endless obstructionism that’s characterized our politics for the past 20 years will come to an end. People will be willing to do deals, and be reasonable about them. Congress could become a functioning, coequal entity again.
Don't get me wrong, I don't have the slightest idea what'll happen. But doesn't this seem like a plausible, possible outcome? And probably the best one by a mile? I’ll be interested to read your thoughts in the comments.