Hurricane Patricia has gone off the color scale of most satellite imagery. This color scheme was used to show the extremely cold temperatures of lower than negative 80°C in bright red. Note the pinhole eye of about 10 km (6 miles). If the surface winds reach a steady state with this tight eye and these ultra cold tops, sustained wind speeds will approach 200 mph.
In just 36 hours Patricia has exploded from a minimal tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane of 160mph sustained winds (140kts). Near record warm waters for this date off the Mexican coast of 87°F, low wind shear and lower than normal temperatures in the transition layer to the stratosphere have combined to fuel one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the modern record.
Update 2: Landfall, Jalisco coast Cuixmala Mexico category 5 at 165mph.
Hurricane Patricia landfalls in Mexico. NHC posts: "Patricia made landfall at approximately 615 PM CDT...2315 UTC...along the coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala. This position is also about 55 miles...85 km...west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph...270 km/h."
Fortunately, landfall was in a sparsely populated area between major the coastal towns of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. The 900 dollar a night Moorish style Cuixmala beach resort appears to have been the closest habitation to landfall. A narrow zone on the eastern side of the eyewall where the maximum winds hit is where the maximum damage will have been inflicted.
Landfall was in a sparsely populated area. The 900 dollar a night Cuixmala resort was near where Patricia made landfall.
Fortunately, the area around the Cuixmala resort is sparsely populated.
UPDATE 1
200 MPH PATRICIA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
Here's the historic discussion from the NHC issued at 4am Friday.
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.
Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.
We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.
Let me note that this record strength is the result of a number of factors including a monster El Nino, water temperatures at near record highs, a deep pool of warm water off of mainland Mexico and a cooler than normal bottom of the stratosphere. The cooling of the lowest levels of the stratosphere is a predicted consequence of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. It's a complex issue that I am mentioning now because it is making the strongest tropical cyclones stronger.
The transition layer between the tropopause and stratosphere is about 3°C cooler than normal above record breaking 175kt (200 mph) hurricane Patricia. This figure makes a connection between human caused climate change and the record breaking strength of this hurricane.
End Updates
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes form in the eastern Pacific but most of them go out to sea and do not strike the mainland Mexican coast. October hurricanes like Patricia, however, can get picked up by westerly winds and pulled into the mainland coast at near full strength. Patricia is challenging an unnamed hurricane that struck near Manzanillo as a low end category 5 or strong category 4 with estimated winds of about 160mph. Patricia threatens the Mexican coastline from Manzanillo to Peurto Vallarta. If it enters the Bahia de Banderas and comes ashore near Puerto Vallarta a disaster of historic proportions is likely because the bay would funnel the storm surge towards the major coastal population center. Puerto Vallarta is within the hurricane center's cone of uncertainty.
Hurricane Patricia will make landfall in mainland Mexico about 7pm tomorrow, Friday 23October2015 according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
The NHC's latest discussion, just released, gives hope that wind shear will cause some weakening before landfall, possibly reducing the destruction. However, even if it weakens, Patricia will be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever strike the Mexican mainland.
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.
After Patricia dissipates it will still be bring a major threat of flooding as it moves northeast.
In 72 hours southwest winds will carry Patricia's moisture and spin to Texas where heavy rain may bring floods.
Southwesterly winds will drive Patricia's moisture and spin towards Texas. In 3 days Texas may be hit by heavy rains and flooding as a non-tropical storm develops and wrings out Patricia's moisture over Texas.
Patricia's moisture and spin will be carried into Texas where the weather prediction center predicts it will bring up to 14 inches of rain over the next 5 days.