Louisiana Democrat John Bel Edwards has a real chance to turn the governor's mansion blue
It wasn't long ago that David Vitter was the undisputed frontrunner to become Louisiana's next governor, sure to dominate his rivals—Republican and Democrat alike—in both the primary and the runoff. But the bayou is often full of political surprises, and things sure haven't worked out the way Vitter planned and everyone else expected.
Vitter, of course, is infamous for appearing in the little black book of the notorious "D.C. Madam," Deborah Jean Palfrey, who operated a call girl ring in the nation's capital back in the aughts. When busted in 2007, Vitter apologized for his "sin" but did not resign, because doing so would have allowed Louisiana's Democratic governor at the time, Kathleen Blanco, to appoint a successor. Vitter also knew he had three years until his first re-election campaign, which should have been more than enough time for voters to either forget or forgive.
And indeed, it looked as though they had. Vitter won a dominant 57-38 victory over Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in 2010, and while he was surely aided by that year's GOP wave, he also eviscerated a former state supreme court justice who challenged him in the primary by an 88-7 margin. Seemingly secure in office, Vitter emerged as the top force in Republican politics in Louisiana, thanks to Gov. Bobby Jindal's deep unpopularity and Vitter's own efforts to help elect a phalanx of state legislators loyal to him.
That put Vitter in top position to succeed the term-limited Jindal this year, and polls throughout the campaign showed him far ahead of his two Republican rivals, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle. State Rep. John Bel Edwards, as the only prominent Democrat running, was always likely to earn a spot in the runoff, but there was every reason to expect Vitter would make short work of him in this deeply conservative state.
But it turned out that Vitter's prostitution scandal was not safely in the past—not at all. His opponents (often via super PACs) resurrected the issue in countless TV ads, and they drew blood. Vitter's favorability ratings plummeted, but neither Angelle nor Dardenne could capitalize because they split the anti-Vitter vote almost down the middle. On primary day a week ago, Edwards secured a solid 40 percent of the vote while Vitter limped into the second spot with just 23 percent. Angelle finished not far behind at 19; had either he or Dardenne, who took 15, not run, Vitter probably would not have made the runoff.
Yet he did, much to the delight of Democrats and to the disgust of Republicans. Both Angelle and Dardenne have declined to endorse Vitter, and Edwards, who long had seemed like an afterthought, might now be poised for an upset. Some polling prior to the primary had showed Edwards beating Vitter, but now we have our first confirmatory post-primary poll. In a survey from Anzalone Liszt Grove on behalf of the deliciously named Gumbo PAC, a group supported by the DGA, Edwards sports a strong 52-40 lead on Vitter.
What makes these numbers all the more remarkable is that the RGA began attacking Edwards on the airwaves—predictably trying to tie him to Barack Obama—even before the primary. Yet according to ALG, Edwards still has a positive 55-26 favorability score while Vitter is underwater at 40-52. And in a truly troubling sign for Vitter, half of Angelle and Dardenne voters are flocking to the Democrat.
Whenever you see a poll like this, though, you have to step back and ask whether it's too good to be true. The answer, as ever, is that it might be. Anzalone produced one of the most unfortunate polls in recent Louisiana electoral history, when they claimed that Vitter had a mere 3-point lead with just weeks to go in his 2010 re-election. (As we noted above, Vitter prevailed by 19.) And Republican attack ads aimed at Edwards have yet to reach the fever pitch we know they will. It won't be easy to survive that onslaught.
But it does seem that Louisiana voters are still much more willing to consider pulling the lever for a Democrat (especially a fairly conservative one like Edwards) in a gubernatorial election rather than in a federal race, when they know they'd only be sending in reinforcements for Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. As a result, we're moving our rating on this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. That's a cautious move, especially since Edwards is leading in the polls and Vitter hasn't produced any contrary data, but Democrats still have a challenging path to victory.
However, if further polling still shows Edwards ahead as we get closer to the Nov. 21 runoff, then it might be necessary for us to consider labeling this contest a tossup. That would be a remarkable place to find ourselves, but again, this is Louisiana—the land where the unexpected is always possible.