It's Election Day in America! We'll be liveblogging the results of all the key races nationwide. For a handy guide to all of Tuesday's major contests,
click here.
Statewide Results: KY | MS | NJ | OH | PA | VA
3:04 PM PT (David Nir): Polls have now closed in eastern Kentucky; they won't close in the western part of the state for another hour. We do expect results before then, though. In addition to the AP link above, you can find returns at the secretary of state's website.
3:15 PM PT (David Nir): The first results are trickling in in Kentucky.
3:21 PM PT (Steve Singiser): This is the part of the night, usually, where all you have to go on are small smatterings of tea leaves.
Bad news for Conway: he is running a few points behind Democratic ticket mates Adam Edelen and Alison Lundergan Grimes thus far.
Good news for Conway: sporadic reports from local GOP operative Scott Jennings hint that Conway might be over performing in GOP counties in absentee balloting.
3:26 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Another smallish tea leaf: with about 42 percent reporting in Fayette County, Conway leads Bevin 54-41. That'd be a bit of an underperformance, BUT it is hard to know which precincts are reporting in the county as of yet.
3:29 PM PT (David Nir): Fayette County is the second-largest in the state. It's home of the state capital of Lexington and is typically a sizable source of Democratic votes.
3:36 PM PT (David Jarman): Here's a link to Daily Kos Elections' 2014 benchmarks, which still apply today (2012 is still the most recent presidential election). These tell you what percentage Conway should be hitting in each of the state's large counties, and that's how we know that Conway isn't at the level in Fayette County that he should be at. (Bear in mind, though, that the benchmarks don't assume there's a significant third party vote. If Curtis is pulling evenly from both sides, Conway would only need to hit 58 percent in Fayette Co., not 61.
3:41 PM PT (Steve Singiser): We are still trying to read a lot into very preliminary numbers. Having said that, though, there is one cause for concern for Conway, at least in Fayette County. It seems like he is running quite a few points behind the leading downballot Democrats: Alison Lundergan Grames, Adam Edelen, and AG candidate Andy Beshear. But with so many counties recording zero votes thus far, it is hard to read too much into it.
3:53 PM PT (Steve Singiser): In Kentucky, the statewide numbers are a bit of a "choose your own adventure" gambit. If you are a Republican, turn to the Associated Press, which says that Bevin (R) leads Conway (D) 52-45. If you are a Democrat, stick with the Kentucky Secretary of State, which says Conway leads 60-35. Think it is safe to say they are culling from different sources...
3:56 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Some early precincts counted in populous Jefferson County (Louisville). Conway is up 51-46. If that's a representative sample of the county, it's uh-oh time for the Democrats. Conway won the county 55-44 in his losing Senate bid in 2010. However, and this is critical: there is no way to know which precincts are reporting yet within the county. It has some deep red and deep blue pockets within the borders.
4:01 PM PT (Steve Singiser): AP is now at 10 percent and over 100,000 votes tallied. They have Democrat Jack Conway leading by a very modest margin (49-47-4) over Republican Matt Bevin. Worrisome for Conway—the other leading Democrats are running 8-10 points on the margin ahead of him. However, it's hard to know the value of that until we see full reports from counties. Few of those are in the books, as of this moment.
4:04 PM PT (David Nir): The liveblog continues here.