Louisiana GOP gubernatorial nominee David Vitter
We have less than three weeks to go before the Nov. 21 runoff, and a pair of polls show Republican David Vitter losing to Democrat John Bel Edwards by double-digits. JMC Analytics, on behalf of the Baton Rouge station WVLA, gives Edwards
an insane 52-32 lead. To make things even better for Edwards, the 16 percent of undecideds say they're leaning towards Edwards by a 54-35 margin.
JMC also surveyed the lieutenant governor's race and gave Republican Billy Nungesser a surprisingly tiny 40-39 edge over Democrat Kip Holden. While Holden has some name recognition as the head of East Baton Rouge Parish, he has little money and hasn't been running a particularly active campaign. It's possible this is a sign that the entire sample is too Democratic but even so, Edwards' lead is so huge that it should hold up.
On Tuesday, Market Research Insight gave Edwards a 54-38 edge. MRI did not identify a client, but it's worth noting that they were the only pollster to correctly show Scott Angelle running close to Vitter during the October jungle primary. A post-primary Anzalone Liszt Grove for the Democratic-backed group Gumbo PAC gave Edwards a 52-40 lead: If there are polls out there showing Vitter within striking distance or even winning, they haven't been released yet.
Louisiana is a dark red state, and we expected Edwards to fall behind after the GOP began attacking him for the first time. So far, these polls say that's just not happening. Team Red is going to keep trying, and Louisiana airwaves will be saturated over the next three weeks with spots portraying Edwards as a crony for the unpopular Obama administration. We'll see if Edwards can stand the heat once the furnace is up to full blast, but Democrats should be very happy to see that he's held his ground so far.