LA-Gov: Two new polls of Louisiana's bizarre gubernatorial runoff popped up on Thursday, and both find Democrat John Bel Edwards with a substantial lead on Republican David Vitter. Florida-based pollster Market Research Insight has Edwards ahead 52-38, similar to his 54-38 margin two weeks ago; meanwhile, the University of New Orleans, in its first-ever survey of the race, shows Edwards with a Popeye-sized 56-34 advantage.
At this point, though, we're going to say something you probably never expected we'd say: The only poll that matters is on Election Day. Have we lost our marbles? Not hardly—it's the political world that's gone crazy. For starters, we've been burned a lot by wrong-headed red-state polling lately, and we aren't just talking about Kentucky earlier this month (though man were they off: Auditor Adam Edelen, who lost his re-election bid, said that internals he saw were 15 points too favorable for Democrats). We also saw how badly polls performed in many other states last year: Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky (again), Georgia ... the list is distressingly long.
But even more importantly, neither candidate is acting as though he has any kind of discernable advantage. Edwards, in a move that was instantly legendary, savaged his opponent in jaw-dropping fashion with his ad targeting Vitter's prostitution scandal. Conventional wisdom would say that "has to mean" Edwards is trailing. But Vitter, on the other hand, spent most of the primary dodging debates ... and then agreed to two formal debates with Edwards ahead of the runoff. When does an incumbent with a healthy lead in a state that heavily favors his own party ever consent to that?
So we're in a situation where we feel we can't trust the polls coming into this contest, and where none of the body language from either campaign confirms this already difficult-to-trust polling. The uncertainty in this race that we face as analysts is about as high as it ever gets. We could be in for an epic polling fail and Edwards could still win. Vitter could also just as easily pull this one off, much like Matt Bevin did. Or hell, maybe Louisiana really does simply hate David Vitter that much and he's about to go down to a blistering defeat.
We just don't know. And since we're in a position like this, we feel our race rating has to reflect this uncertainty. Therefore, we're changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup. That does not mean we necessarily think this race will be close. It might be. But truly anything at all could happen here on Nov. 21.