I was over at the RCP poll average tracker www.realclearpolitics.com/… curious to see how things have really played since the first debates and Biden dropping out. The general memes that were being pushed were that Hillary won the debates, swayed minds at the hearing and Biden’s support would prefer Hillary, and I wanted to see if maybe it was my eyes doing the lying. If all of these things were true, Hillary should of gained from Biden as well as the post debate and hearings bounce and be considerably farther ahead than she was.
But thats not what I saw…
Biden’s last day in the race the averages were Biden 17, Bernie 25.4 and Hillary 48.2 ahead 22.8. In that time Biden’s support should have broken down mostly to Hillary with some to Bernie, O’Malley or undecided, plus Hillary is supposed to be on a roll here gaining back momentum,meaning she should have gained an easy 5-10 points over Bernie between all this.
Todays tracker is Hillary 54.2 (a gain of 6) and Bernie 32.6 (a gain of 7.2) putting Hillary ahead 21.6 (1.2 less). Now we know from many polls all showing Hillary should have gotten at least 2-1 over Bernie from Bidens support. so if 5% went undecided the other 12% should have went at least 8% Hillary and 4% Bernie so that makes the actual difference closer to 5% in Bernies favor. We know Hillary looked good at the Hearings so the only thing up in the air is the debates,
All the online polls and focus groups said Bernie won and all the talking heads said Hillary won. but we can see from that effective 5% gain by Bernie that he actually did win the debates. So when people say Hillary won the debate, is surging, has momentum or any of the other bull, we know that in reality she has effectively lost 5% since the day Biden dropped out of the race only a few weeks ago. Thats right Bernie has gained an effective 5% (or more) in the last few weeks and is polling higher than he ever has, but all the babble is about how Hillary is shining
So who you going to believe. all the people pushing the status quo meme Hillary is taking control of the primary and putting Bernie away, Bernie is stagnating and peaked, Hillary won the debates, or just your lying eyes?.
Thursday, Nov 12, 2015 · 8:25:40 PM +00:00
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TheLeftistheCenter
Should anyone actually disagree with the facts presented in this diary by showing they are wrong in some manner supported by evidence, let me know!
In the mean time all the FUD from Hillary Squad is getting boring. Yes, she is still ahead. Yes, being less ahead is losing ground. No, cherry picking your favorite poll is not more convincing then the averages. Yes, Hillary is polling higher from getting her share of Bidens support. No, that doesn’t mean shes improved if shes less ahead than she was.
So I am not going to respond to these missing the point comments anymore, but if someone should have a sincere well reasoned response I will check in and respond.