2016 Presidential Election - Likelihood of Democratic Nomination
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE |
Predictwise |
Derived Market Price |
Derived Polling Percent |
HILLARY CLINTON |
92% |
$0.889 |
56.9% |
BERNIE SANDERS |
7% |
$0.084 |
31.2% |
martin o’malley |
1% |
$0.014 |
2.4% |
This is the current prediction as per Predictwise. This is the first time I’ve seen the numbers this skewed. It appears the “smart” money is with Clinton. But, to have a chance at earning big money, you have to bet on Bernie or Martin. If Martin were to somehow win the nomination, folks that bet on him would be in for a ridiculous payday.
No doubt about it though. Clinton is definitely in the pole position at this point. Interestingly, according to Predictwise, a generic Democrat has a 58% chance of winning the Presidency while a generic Republican has only a 42% chance. And, when the specific candidate is considered, Hillary has the best odds of all candidates by far with a 59% chance of winning with the closest competitor, Marco Rubio, having only an 18% chance of winning. All other candidates are well below 10%.
Things look really good for Clinton right now. But, the polls still reflect roughly even races with her Republican counterparts. I’m guessing that as we get closer to the general election, and Clinton is the nominee, the polls will likely start to tilt strongly in her favor. Just on policy alone, its going to be difficult for a Republican nominee to gain any serious support beyond their own party.
All of the Republican candidates’ positions on several major issues are really deal breakers for the vast majority of the electorate. They oppose a minimum wage increase (I think Trump even said he opposed a living wage increase. Just crazy!!!), want to repeal Obamacare and not replace it with any serious solution, do not advocate for equal pay for women, oppose any common-sense gun safety legislation, deny climate change exists and any initiatives to reverse it, support lowering taxes that mostly favor the wealthy, oppose free community college and tuition-free public university education, continue to try to demonize and defund Planned Parenthood, support raising the retirement age, generally oppose comprehensive immigrate reform, oppose Wall Street reform, and are on the wrong side of many other issues. Any one of the of the issues I just mentioned are enough to not support any Republican. But, the sheer totality all of the issues that they are on the wrong side of makes it a virtually life-and-death situation, not just for us but for our children as well, that cannot be ignored.
We really do not have the luxury of being apathetic or petulant. We already know the consequences of allowing a Republican to control the White House. He ignored loud warnings about potential attacks and failed to do anything to prevent them. The result was one of the single worst days in our country. He took us to two wars that were not paid for. Rather than raise taxes to pay for the wars, he cut taxes that largely benefited the wealthiest among us and borrowed money to pay for the wars. He cut education funding, infrastructure funding, cut research funding, cut funding for performance arts and music education, and cut funding for many other critical programs that hurt the poorest communities the most. He took us from a substantial budget surplus and led us into historic deficits. Then, he allowed Wall Street to led us into the worst financial crisis of our lifetime. Home sales and property values plummeted, retirement savings accounts were nearly wiped out, millions of people lost their jobs, homes, families and dignity. Not to mention, he took us from a country that was full of real optimism and hope in 2000 to a country full of nothing but fear, loathing, anger and despair when he finally left office. He subjected us to massive invasions of privacy with the Patriot Act and turned us into a country where the federal government can go to a secret court to get warrants to tap our phones and monitor our credit card purchases and internet activity without us even knowing about it. His eight years in the White House were among the worst in our country’s history. He damaged our international mystique and reverence that many other countries truly felt for us. He added two more conservatives to the Supreme Court that led to the dreadful Citizen’s United ruling that we all hate with a passion. And, we have still not fully recovered from his leadership.
So, we shouldn’t have to be convinced that it truly matters who's in the White House. I wish we could somehow go back to 2000 and have another election. Unfortunately, we can’t get those days back. But, we can learn from them.
If anyone is even thinking about not voting because their preferred democratic candidate is not the nominee, I urged you to read the above paragraph and rethink you decision. We have made real progress under the current President, which makes this a pivotal election. The last time we had a pivotal election (i.e., 2000), we squandered it. We simply cannot let that happen this time. Just looking at last night’s debate should be enough motivation for us to ensure that those clowns never get into the White House. The Republican Party is simply incapable of governing the country.
I realize my last few comments were off topic, but I literally started thinking about all that happened during the Bush years and I felt compelled to write it in this diary. We must never allow our country to go backwards again.