I wanted to write a quick diary on this particular poll since there has been so much variation in polling out of Iowa in the past month. Quinnipiac just released their new poll and not much has changed since their October iteration. Clinton has remained at 51%, while Sanders gained 2 points to reach 42%. From their press release:
Despite a low grade for handling the economy, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has the support of 51 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 42 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 4 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. |
This is virtually unchanged from the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Clinton at 51 percent, with Sanders at 40 percent. |
Both candidates are extremely well liked, Sanders a bit more so:
Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants give Clinton an 81 - 15 percent favorability rating. Sanders gets an 81 - 7 percent favorability.
Of note is that compared to many other polls taken in Iowa and even nationally, this poll has a good sample size and a good methodology (They get a B+ from 538):
From November 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 543 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
Lots of interesting cross-tabs are available. Off-hand, these are the takeaways I have:
1) This poll has had moments where it has been on the high-end for Sanders and low-end for Clinton in terms of support — Their September iteration actually gave Sanders a 1 point lead, although Biden was included so that result may not have been appreciably too different. In that context, Clinton maintaining a 9 point lead in the state is a solid result — If a 9 point lead is among the worst results you’re getting in a state, you’re doing pretty well, especially since she’s over 50%.
2) On the other hand, it seems pretty likely that some of those crazy results, like Monmouth showing Clinton up 65-24, were likely off-base. We’ve now had 3 polls released in November in Iowa, and the results have been Clinton +18, Clinton +6, Clinton +9. The Pollster estimate is Clinton +18, and that doesn’t include this poll which should make it closer to +14 or so.
3) For Sanders, the encouraging part of this poll is really the knowledge that caucus states are notoriously difficult to poll, and that if this poll is right, it might be a single-digit race. If the race is in single digits going into the caucus, either candidate has a solid shot to win just based on the history of polling in the state and the differences an effective organization/ground game can make when it comes to caucuses.