There have been a load of diaries and comments that highlight electability as a major reason for favoring Clinton or Sanders (depending on the writer’s preference). The arguments offered can be spun back and forth. For example:
Bernie is a self-declared socialist, that makes him unelectable.
But … people have heard that Obama is a socialist for 8 years, that argument has lost its juice.
Or:
Hillary’s negatives are way too high to make her electable.
But … candidates always see their favorables go up after winning their party’s nomination.
But … Hillary is far better known than most candidates in the past and people’s views of her more ossified so she won’t see that bounce.
But … Hillary has already faced endless attacks, and so continued attacks won’t make a dent in her.
Or:
Bernie’s refusal to play the SuperPAC game means he’ll be unilaterally disarming against the Koch-fueled GOP spending, making him unelectable.
But … he’s running a different kind of campaign and that is part of what makes him stand out to prosecptive voters.
But … his favorables will crater when faced with massive Republican spending with no counterpunch.
But … Bernie has built a major army of small donors who give him resources to counter the GOP — and anyway, left-leaning groups will still do independent expenditure campaigns to benefit him if he is the nominee whether he has a Bernie “SuperPAC” or not.
And so on.
It seem to me that these and other electability arguments — from either camp — have one major thing in common: they are speculative.
So what does actual polling data tell us about electability? Recognizing that polling is an imperfect science, and that it reflects a snapshot in time that can change in the future, it is at least actual data and for a reality-based community should shed meaningful light on who is or isn’t electable.
I went to Real Clear Politics to look at the most recent head-to-head polling matchups for Clinton and Sanders against the three likeliest GOP contenders: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. And I tossed in Bush as an unlikely (but not impossible) establishment choice since he is desperately trying to make his campaign relevant again. So how to Clinton and Sanders fare:
Vs. Trump: Hillary +4.8 Bernie +2.0
Vs. Cruz: Hillary Tied Bernie +3.3
Vs. Rubio: Hillary -1.3 Bernie -1.0
Vs Bush Hillary +1.3 Sanders +3.0
So based not on speculation but actual polling data, it would appear that the Democrats have two candidates who are both competitive with the Republican front-runners and who likely are electable. Equally clear, neither candidate would be a “slam dunk” against the Republicans. We’ll have our work cut out for us as Democrats in the General Election.
So that’s what the current data says on electability. Now everyone can speculate to their heart’s content.