FL-05: Last week, Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown confirmed reports that she had been served with a federal subpoena—but why and in connection with what matter remains a mystery. However, it's nevertheless having an impact. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum had said back in December that he'd announce whether he'd challenge Brown in the revised 5th District "following the holidays," but now he says he's holding off, suggesting that Brown might decide not to seek re-election if there is indeed some sort of federal investigation looming.
Should that happen, Gillum expects a large field would develop at Brown's end of the district in Jacksonville, which would make it easier for him to secure the Democratic nomination. While Brown is a weak candidate whose is as untalented at fundraising as she is skilled at alienating fellow Democrats, the well-liked Gillum would still face a difficult task in unseating her. That's because former state Sen. Al Lawson, who also hails from Tallahassee and ran for Congress in the area once before, is already running. In a race with two Tally candidates and just one from Jax, Brown would likely remain the favorite.
But should Brown bail and the floodgates open, there are plenty of contenders from her hometown who could make the race. Among them are state Rep. Mia Jones, state Sen. Audrey Gibson, former state Sen. Tony Hill, former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, and former state Rep. Terry Fields. If there's one other thing Corrine Brown is good at, though, it's offering confusing statements about her intentions: At various times she's indicated she might run again in the 5th, or might instead trot down to the new Orlando-area 10th. So Gillum (and the rest of us) will probably be waiting a while to figure out what's going to happen here.