This will be a short diary, because the numbers speak for themselves. In the latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Iowa and New Hampshire, we get the following head-to-head matchups in November:
Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 48, Trump 40 |
Clinton +8 |
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Sanders 51, Trump 38 |
Sanders +13 |
Iowa: Cruz vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Cruz 47, Clinton 43 |
Cruz +4 |
Iowa: Cruz vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Sanders 47, Cruz 42 |
Sanders +5 |
Iowa: Rubio vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Rubio 47, Clinton 42 |
Rubio +5 |
Iowa: Rubio vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Rubio 44, Sanders 44 |
Tie |
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 45, Trump 44 |
Clinton +1 |
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Sanders 56, Trump 37 |
Sanders +19 |
New Hampshire: Cruz vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 44, Cruz 48 |
Cruz +4 |
New Hampshire: Cruz vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Sanders 55, Cruz 37 |
Sanders +18 |
New Hampshire: Rubio vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Rubio 52, Clinton 40 |
Rubio +12 |
New Hampshire: Rubio vs. Sanders |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Sanders 50, Rubio 41 |
Sanders +9 |
Sanders is literally running 20 points ahead of Clinton against some people, including Ted Cruz. This pattern isn’t exactly new, including in the Midwest, where numerous prior polls have shown Bernie to be the more viable general election candidate.
This is not to say that things can’t change, or that Bernie will surely survive more vicious attack ads sure to come in the future. But such a wide gap between him and Clinton is well beyond the margin of error for this poll. It’s time we re-evaluate the definition of “risky” candidate in today’s atmosphere.
The safe candidate in today’s environment is actually the risky one. People want an outsider, someone who is maligned by the establishment, someone with a touch of Howard Beale in them. They don’t care about Bernie’s radical past, just like they don’t care about Trump’s creepy past. They don’t care about policy proposals, because no one trusts the candidates to actually implement what they articulate. They just want someone they can trust, who stays firm on the issues, who they know to which side the candidate is loyal. As long as there’s the perception that Bernie is most loyal to the people, he’ll continue to do well despite being a septuagenarian socialist Jew from Vermont.