In the comment section of naderhader’s fine diary on Nate Silver’s (aka poblano) latest forecast for the 2016 presidential primaries, there is a piece of MSM “conventional wisdom” yet again being talked about that is factually incorrect.
The conventional wisdom goes that in 2008, black voters nationally and in South Carolina did not support Barack Obama until AFTER Obama won the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.
While that general trend may be true of the 2008 national Democratic primary polls, there is plenty of evidence in a number of links at RealClearPolitics that Obama had decisive leads among black voters in South Carolina prior to the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.
For example, in this SurveyUSA poll conducted 11/09/2007 - 11/11/2007, Obama had a 52-39 (?) lead among black voters in South Carolina.
The InsiderAdvantage poll conducted 12/3-4/2007 showed Obama beating Clinton by 2 points in South Carolina and showed Obama with a 50-24 lead among black voters in SC.
The CBSNews poll conducted 12/13-17/2007 showed Obama with a 52-27 advantage among black voters.
Some of the other links for the 2008 poll internals are broken but most of the ones that I have seen now and in the past showed that Obama had big leads in South Carolina with black voters prior to the Iowa Caucuses.
And don’t forget, Obama actually won the black vote in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses by a huge margin. (72-16 over Clinton, to be precise).
Make of those documented facts as you will, but those ARE documented facts.