Five days from the Iowa Caucus and it’s time for me to make my predictions on races within both parties. You guys can chime in with your predictions if you like.
Firstly on the democratic side of things, I think Hillary Clinton is gonna out perform the polls and win with a solid margin, I’m thinking somewhere from a six point win to a ten point margin.
Her final margin percentage wise will be from 52% to about 55%. Bernie will get around 42% to about 45%. I think this is a turnout game now, and just like in 2004 when Howard Dean was so sure college kids would put him over the edge, Sanders is relying on a cadre of voters that are not very reliable except the outlier year of 2008. We shall see.
On the republican side of things Donald Trump will not win the caucus.
Wait what? Yeah, you heard that right. I know all the polls are pointing to Trump victory but even before his debate stunt I’ve been bullish about a Ted Cruz victory.
I think Calgary Cruz will win the race on the republican side and by a solid margin. I think polls are understating Cruz’s strength and over stating Trump’s. If you look at all the polls that have Trump ahead they are working on a turnout model that as never transpired on the republican side at least in Iowa before, and irrespective of the crazy things Trump as said, those new voters will be no where in sight come Monday.
Percentage wise I think Cruz takes about 35% to 40% of the vote, Trump comes in second with about 23% to 30% of the vote, Rubio comes in a distant third and the Establishment duds fall in after him in whatever order.
That’s my predictions for Monday, and I’m solidly confident of them. If you agree or disagree, or you think you have better prediction odds share your comments below. :)