Iowa is tight, but that in itself is a big problem for Bernie. If he does not have a clear lead in 97% White Iowa, a state he spent a ton of time in, poured a lot of money into, how can he be competitive in states that look more like America?
Today’s polls and polls released over the last few days are showing continued weakness for Bernie in big states that look like America or have large number of POC voting. He has failed to make inroads, and time is running out:
PA — Hillary by 28% in Pennsylvania — 56% Hillary to 28% Bernie
Hillary with massive lead in Pennsylvania
Here the poll’s crosstabs and methodology:
www.harperpolling.com/...
SC — Hillary by 37% 64% Hillary, 27% Bernie
msnbcmedia.msn.com/...
NC — Hillary by 33% as per PPP poll — 59% Hillary to 26% Bernie
PPP NC poll: Clinton Maintains Huge Lead
and another NC poll, this one from Civitas.
NC — Hillary by 25% — 53% Hillary to 28% Bernie
Clinton Maintains Strong Lead among NC Democrats
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As for states with large numbers of AAs voting in primaries contrast to a similar point in 2008 Obama vs. Hillary and where the true differences lie:
In South Carolina, at a comparable point (remember, the Iowa caucuses came a whole month earlier) Obama had already made it a tight race well before Iowa voting:
www.realclearpolitics.com/...
SurveyUSA |
12/17 - 12/18 |
496 LV |
39 |
41 |
17 |
Clinton +2.0 |
CBS News |
12/13 - 12/17 |
599 LV |
35 |
34 |
13 |
Obama +1.0 |
Rasmussen |
12/16 - 12/16 |
LV |
33 |
33 |
17 |
Tie |
CNN |
12/09 - 12/12 |
LV |
34 |
42 |
16 |
Clinton +8.0 |
Insider Advantage |
12/08 - 12/09 |
480 LV |
28 |
22 |
14 |
Obama +6.0 |
SurveyUSA |
12/07 - 12/09 |
470 LV |
40 |
44 |
11 |
Clinton +4.0 |
Mason-Dixon |
12/03 - 12/06 |
400 LV |
25 |
28 |
18 |
Clinton +3.0 |
Insider Advantage |
12/03 - 12/04 |
421 LV |
26 |
24 |
15 |
Obama +2.0 |
Rasmussen |
12/03 - 12/04 |
407 LV |
34 |
36 |
13 |
Clinton +2.0 |
In North Carolina there were very few polls conducted in the run up to the Iowa caucus, but the relevant ones looked like this at a comparable point:
www.realclearpolitics.com/...
That’s the big difference here. In states with a large number of AAs — in this example South Carolina and North Carolina, Obama was either tied already well before the Iowa caucuses, or within single digits. Contrast to Bernie, who is behind by 37% (SC) and 33% (NC) in AA dominated primary states. I don’t see how Bernie can make up these huge differences, since his “complicated” relationship with Democratic AA voters does not lend itself to big jumps within that group.
This is where Hillary’s advantage with POC comes into play. States like PA, NC, FL, GA, TX, etc. The fact that Iowa, 97% White Iowa, is even in the realm of Hillary winning the state, is a problem for Hillary’s opponent, because as we have seen time and time again her biggest strength in this nomination race is with people of color. Judging by the huge leads Hillary continues to show in these states, Bernie has obviously failed to make inroads with POC up to this point.