So I got up today, curious to see who would write the NYTimes story on the lifting of the petrol blockade in Nepal. (Oops, the government of India and the US government and the UN never used the word “blockade." Sorry about that!)
It was a porous blockade to be sure — lots of smuggling of liter-sized bottles of petrol; about a dozen other border crossings had already been opened, on and off, for a week or more. But still, the Kathmandu Valley was under siege for 135 days over the winter, and a truly epic and historic event for Nepal took place. Everyone will have stories of suffering from the cold, or cooking with wood, or being in a queue. I knew it would be big when it was declared, here’s a link to my September diary and prediction.
No, it was not the siege of Leningrad, but — the obstruction ended yesterday, and 35 petrol tankers, the entire fleet owned by the Nepal Oil Corporation, headed for the tank farm just south of the India-Nepal border.
To my surprise, there was nothing in America’ s Paper of Record. So today, even though I was not going to do a diary, I will revel in the fact of giving you the top South Asian news story of the day. Step over the line, into the circle of champions, with all the other DailyKOS progressives, and read just a bit more…...
Prashant Jha
Mr. Jha is a Nepali journalist who writes from Delhi for The Hindustan Times. He’s been fearless during this affair. On his FaceBook page he wrote:
After 135 days, trucks chugged along the Friendship Bridge in Birgunj yesterday, marking the end of the Madhesi blockade.
I look back at the trajectory of the andolan, the dilemmas around the blockade, how it eventually ended, and what it means. My advice for Kathmandu - don't turn smug, use the moment to absorb five big lessons of the Madhes andolan; for Delhi - engage but also pressure the Nepal government strongly for the fundamental problem is not resolved; and for the Madhesi parties - get your act together.
And he linked to the first analysis, his own, starting with this recap:
The Madhesi blockade at the Nepal-India border point of Birgunj – which Nepal had accused India of imposing even as Delhi pointed to the internal nature of the protests – ended on Friday afternoon. Trucks chugged along the Friendship Bridge after 135 days. There have been some efforts to block the border again, but it is unlikely to succeed. This phase – and this particular mode – of the Madhesi agitation may be its final lap.
The trajectory of an andolan
Here is a brief recap. Nepal’s Constitution was promulgated on September 20. Madhesis and Tharus, indigenous tribes of Nepal’s Tarai region, had been protesting in the run up the promulgation, and claimed the constitutional draft had eroded their political representation, compromised the architecture of inclusion, divided up their territory and carved out federal units which would deprive them of self rule, and institutionalised discriminatory citizenship provisions. Read the whole thing at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/end-of-the-madhesi-blockade-what-it-means-for-nepal/story-JixO1gsdWLprj8Lc6G0hQL.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=tweet&utm_campaign=social
Most importantly, Jha asks what next:
Now what?
Kathmandu’s current establishment will be tempted to think that it has won, there is little else to do, and the problem was all an ‘Indian plot’. This is the understanding that has been internalised by many in the top echelons of the government – including the Prime Minister. If it adopts this route, it will attempt to revert to business as usual, enhance state repression in Tarai, do little to address the remaining political concerns of Madhesis, and focus on profiteering from the state like earlier governments.
And he continues with five lessons:
For one, Madhesi discontent remains deep and widespread across castes and classes, urban and rural settings in eastern Tarai in particular; Tharus are relatively quiet because of state suppression but are deeply resentful as well and are preparing for an agitation. No andolan could last for six months without the popular support base of a substantial section of the population.
Secondly, a generation has got radicalised, and has begun seeing Kathmandu as the enemy. They feel little sense of ownership of Nepal’s institutions, symbols and this Constitution. Third, the issue has got internationalised – and the state will constantly have to face questions about its human rights record in the Tarai and the political alienation. Fourth, the state’s legitimacy has eroded in the Tarai, and is in fact absent from rural Madhes altogether except in its security avatar. And finally, given these underlying features, and the rise in radicalism, the movement could well assume more strident and violent forms, presenting a long term challenge to the state
The rest of the piece expands on each of the five lessons in a well-constructed way. Mr Jha is an established journalist,
and he wrote the book Battles of the New Republic. I would bet that he’ll followup with a book about the protests. Along with Subina Shrestha, he’s been one of the most reliable reporters.
One Little Caveat
The queue of trucks awaiting entry to Nepal via Birgunj was reported to extend back into India by thirty kilometers at one point. It will take awhile to fire up that many trucks. On Twitter one guy pointed out that even though dozens of trucks have gone through, there has yet to be one petrol tanker or gas bullet….. hmmmm… it took them four months to get into this mess, it will take more than a day to dig out even under the best circumstances…...
And even if all petrol arrives, there will still be fourteen hours per day of “loadshedding” — the rolling blackouts of electricity. And the same men will be running the government…. and the people in the mountains will still be freezing….
So — I want to thank DailyKOS for hosting these diaries, and my "loyal readers" for reading them of course. I feel like I've gotten to know many of you - this place serves as a community. I’ll continue to write, on and off. Maybe I should compose a New York Times Op-Ed.
PS — five points and bragging rights if you can identify the location of today’s cover photo…..