Another week, another fun forecast!
So since early last week most models have been hinting that on Sunday evening-Monday, a massive storm is going to spin up along the US East Coast. As it moves out to sea, another massive storm will dive down from the Great Lakes. Both will impact the weather (and the seas!) for the bulk of the week, even if neither is close to the coast.
I would not want to be on a cruise out of Baltimore or Bayonne when this thing gets cranking. It’ll be a puke cruise.
Hurricane-force wind warnings for coastal waters went up on Saturday evening. Folks, this is going to be a monster storm—mostly at sea, but still close enough to pile the ocean up. It would not shock me to see this thing pop out an eye-feature to wink at us, and some models suggest a warm-seclusion will develop as it gets cranking (you can see these here, with experimental cyclone phase diagrams). These are nasty baroclinic storms with a warm center but are not tropical cyclones. And it’s the first storm, the first one up. A storm may develop on Monday night and follow a similar, but closer track to the coast. It’s going to be a busy week, weather wise.
And I didn’t even tell y’all about the possible post-Presidents Day storm! And I also need to start looking west. El Nino’s not done yet.
SCHEDULE
SCHEDULE (If no takers, I’ll put up a liveblog-open thread for that day)
DATE |
FORECASTER FOR THE DAY (MORE THAN ONE IS OKAY! Welcome too!) |
2/6/2016
|
crimson quillfeather |
2/7/2016 |
terrypinder |
2/8/2016 |
Yameneko2 |
2/9/2016 (New Hampshire Primary) |
|
2/10/2016 |
|
2/11/2016 |
|
2/12/2016 |
LINKS WORTH READING
- Hurricane Patricia was actually stronger than reported the day before it came ashore, the Hurricane Center has determined. Truly a remarkable storm, and I have a suspicion, one that never will be confirmed, that it was even stronger than what’s now the official record, a jaw dropping 872mb with 215 mile per hour winds. It weakened to a Category 4 hurricane just before landfall (a weather station at a Mexican wildlife institute on the northwest side of the eyewall indicated otherwise, but was rejected as unreliable.) Patricia was fueled by hot Pacific water and a brief window of very favorable conditions that allowed the cyclone to literally explode.
- The 1959 Manzanillo Hurricane has also been reanalyzed. The interesting thing about this report is it began with a pair of hurricane storm-chasers whose data I increasingly see being used to inform the Hurricane Center’s reanalyses.
- Sakurajima, a Japanese volcano that’s been in near continuous eruption since 1955, put on a show Friday.
- Blind thrust fault+unconsolidated sediments+towers over 8 stories+towers has soft story equals tragedy in Taiwan as an M6.4 quake toppled several residential buildings in Tainan, in southern Taiwan.
- The White House held a summit on Earthquake resilience and earthquake early warning systems, which you can watch here. Earthquake early warning systems are used in Japan, Mexico, and Romania but not yet here. Two systems are under testing on the US West Coast at the moment.
- San Diego, fascinatingly, has more water than it actually needs right now. For western water issues and news, do bookmark John Fleck’s blog.
- Storm Imogen (UK)/Ruzica (Germany) will disrupt the lives of many over the next couple days, including Carnival festivities in Germany.
WEATHER MAP GAME
Did you guess Katrina? You were right! All of the other storms save Hugo also hit the US Gulf Coast.
Here’s the next weather game!
This is a national weather map from some point in the past, like the others. Is this from the fall, summer, winter, or summer? Extra points if you guess when this weather occurred!