After the virtual tie in the Iowa caucus, the latest polling in the New Hampshire Democratic primary shows Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton, and a whopping lead among young voters aged 18-29. Hillary Clinton has amped up her attacks on Bernie Sanders in recent days including the most recent debate on Thursday night, but it appears it will have little effect on the outcome of this Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary, as Sanders is poised to handily defeat if not crush Hillary Clinton. Yet it may still not change the overall trajectory of this race.
While Hillary is still campaigning in the Granite state, her surrogates, including her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have moved on to campaign on her behalf in Nevada and South Carolina respectively. As I had stated in a previous diary, the actual Democratic nomination could be shaped by the results in these two states. As of today, Hillary Clinton still holds a 20 point lead in the most recent Nevada polling, and she holds a 35 point lead in South Carolina, including a huge lead among African American voters. If Sanders expects to overtake Hillary in this contest, he will not only need a decisive victory in New Hampshire, but a huge bump in momentum to carry him through Nevada and South Carolina. He will also need to make a convincing case to African American and Latino voters, who Hillary has already developed a well of goodwill from going back to her days as First Lady and as Senator and Secretary of State.
Bernie Sanders himself has said there needs to be a political revolution in this country. If one is likely to happen, he will need to build an army in Nevada, South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states, plus have coattails that stretch downballot in each state.