It wasn’t supposed to look this way.
You’d expect a baker’s dozen of Democrats would have been lined up to succeed Obama’s measured but competent pair of Presidential terms. Most were scared off by the star power of Hillary Clinton.
That left a handful of nobodies whose names nobody recalls, including a socialist from Vermont.
So after the inevitable, Hillary swept to dominating victories in the first primaries. That was that.
But no! The strangest thing happened instead. In post-crisis, post-Occupy, post-offshored America, suddenly socialism seemed less a dirty word and more a pretty darn good idea. The ex-hippie in the race became a populist folk hero, steadily rising in the polls, leaving the Democratic power brokers quaking in their Pradas.
Stranger still, this twist of fate has thrown out two baby boomers to stage one final battle royale over what the American left should be about. Revolution or “evolution”...to the center? Cools or squares? Elvis or Jimi? Hippies or Hedge funders? Power to the People or Wall Street speeches forever?
The terms of debate can seem stale because both candidates, while adapting, forged their identities in the crucible of 1960s/70s culture wars. But out of that blood and chaos has emerged a very different America. The old punchlines of the boomers’ youth don’t ring quite the same today.
Thus today’s Democratic public has realigned in a new configuration around the two candidates. Three distinct patterns are worthy of note. Each contains real potential as well as real danger.
Old Dems love Square Hillary. Young Dems love Cool Bernie.
The boomers are Square in Hillary territory. They used to trust no one over 30, then they grew up, got mortgages and became The Man (and, obviously, The WoMan). Call them bourgeois, call them respectable, call them traditional, call them suburban sellouts, but just call them. Actually don’t, because they still haven’t figured out how to answer their iPhones. But let’s be fair. Every generation slides its way to more Silent Majority conservatism as they age, acquire some amount of status and property, and decide defending them is all that gets their vote.
Young Dems say nuts to Stodgy Aunt Hill. They have flocked en masse to the Cool Hippie Uncle Bern’s 99% psychedelic free jazz Festival. And we’re not just talking goofball college kids. All the under-45s are at the same party, which makes for some awkward pick-up attempts in the 3$ beer line. And it is a mixed crowd. Much to the chagrin of boomer ladies, young women are feeling the Bern.
It’s not unusual for insurrectionary left candidates (think Obama 2008, Howard Dean, etc.) to mobilize younger voters. But what next for young Bernie voters? If he pulls off the incredible and wins, can they be counted on to build a real movement, retake the party and make midterm elections less a depressing geriatric GOP backsliding affair? And if Bernie loses at any point, will they float off into apathy as has so often been the case?
Rich Dems love Establishment Hillary. Poor Dems love Rabble-Rouser Bernie.
Make over $50K? You people tilt Hillary.
Make under $50K? You people tilt Bernie.
Unsurprising. Richer Democrats pick the candidate who best serves their financial interests.
Poorer Democrats pick the candidate who best serves their financial interests.
But in the long term, the Hillary/Bernie, richer/poorer income divide is not very healthy for Democrats. We are, after all, the party that supports the expansion of voting rights, fretting every election over getting out just enough poorer voters to topple this or that GOP’er in this or that purple precinct. Wealthier Democrats push their candidates through because many poorer Democrats don’t register or don’t vote. If they did, the party would change. Radically.
The ball is in your court, left Democrats. Field better candidates, get involved in poorer communities, fight to get everyone registered and prove to them that their vote counts and will bring real change.
Black Dems love Stay-The-Course Hillary. White Dems love Shake-It-Up Bernie.
Boomers aside, Hillary’s last remaining firewall remains black and Latino voters. Hillary’s lasting popularity among black and Latinos is in part due to her famous name famously branded Democratic. It’s also due to her husband’s and her own long history of political and charitable relationship-building in both communities.
But beyond that, many black/Latino voters fear a GOP win would bring violent repercussions to them personally. And they are right. Not only must Bernie backers convince minority voters that Bernie could win a general election, they must also show they will stand with their communities in solidarity should the GOP win. That means not just making arguments, but commitments. Benign neglect of minority communities has too long been white practice in the de facto segregation of America. End it, fight it, or no candidate as left as Bernie will pick up enough minority votes to get the nomination.
We are one nation divided. Two aging Democratic candidates speaking yesterday’s language have further subdivided us. However the rest of the race pays out, those divisions will remain. Tomorrow’s candidates must find new modes of acting and new words to go with their new acts.
The Age of the Boomers is ending. Out of its dust what new Democratic Party will arise?